Are chase systems profitable long term?

LT Profits · 03-29-08, 03:13 PM

No.

Chases force you to bet more units after a loss on a game that most likely has the same probablity of winning as the previous game (or worse yet has a -EV). Thus it is poor money management.

DukeJohn · 03-29-08, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by austintx05

Curious what most think. Whether you have done a chase or have not done a chase, what is your stance. I would think baseball brings out the most chases of any sport due to the series play.

Seems like a lot of risk, but is the risk worth the reward?

Ah, such an easy answer to most and to some extremely complicated. I would say that nearly all "systems" involve some sort of "chase" unless you truly are betting straight up for every game. Now, many handicappers hide the chase my using the term, this game has more value than that one so I am increasing the amount. Of course this is not a "I lost the last game so I am increasing the next one" it is based on what they determine value. In an abstract since you begin to see nearly all handicappers chase. Some of the best will do it. But let's look at the top tier of handicapper's that chase, not the one's that are like a frog trying to cross the road during rush hour traffic. The top guys are more like standing in an open field wearing a suit of armor during an electrical storm. Yes, if you are smart and experienced, you might just survive and have quite a story to tell.

MrX · 03-29-08, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by DukeJohn

The top guys are more like standing in an open field wearing a suit of armor during an electrical storm. Yes, if you are smart and experienced, you might just survive and have quite a story to tell.

Please explain how smarts and experience would help someone standing in an open field in a suit of armor during an electrical storm.

Thanks,
Analogy Police

DukeJohn · 03-29-08, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by MrX

Please explain how smarts and experience would help someone standing in an open field in a suit of armor during an electrical storm.

Thanks,
Analogy Police

Well, I suppose since electrons begin to gather near the highest source and the electric "spark" comes from either the object on the ground or the clouds. I personally would stay away from any higher object, that would include a person as the current could jump from you to the person as it quickly channels into the sky and I would make sure I was closer to the ground so the pull of electrons would not be gathering at the top of my head ready to fry me.

Of course, if I was alone in the open field, the smartest move would be to quickly remove the suit and pile it up. Then get away from it and lay upon the ground, making sure I was lower than the pile of armor.

jjgold · 03-29-08, 04:29 PM

Chase systems knock you out of the game period.

Reload · 03-29-08, 05:05 PM

Chasing is not profitable long term. It can feel good to chase, win, and get that rush of coming out of the hole to win. But if you keep relying on it a lot you will be really screwed.

austintx05 · 03-29-08, 05:58 PM

thanks for the advice, and I tend to agree with you guys. It seems logical, but when you lose a chase you lose a lot of your bankroll...better to stay in the game than to be wiped out.

cheers

hawk 5 · 03-29-08, 06:05 PM

I've chased and won and I've chased and lost. I've wanted to chase and was glad I didn't and sorry I didn't. It's all called gambling.