I have finalized my decision to move to Vegas

[tony_come]

LV- just do it!

Can't be serious b/c don't know this story is true/false

but it's your life/family

[jjgold]

JJ help him out

20k this weekend on which team in NFL?

Tony maybe packers

[bradthebloke]

one thing i want to mention is that you state your system has worked well "on paper". Its a lot different when you have actual money down. People tend to get pissed about their losses and start chasing, or you get greedy if you're up big and start doubling your bets. Its not so bad if its just play money and you dont really care if you lose it, but when you are planning to drop everything and move to vegas and use the money you need to LIVE ON, buddy it gets a lot more stressful and frustrating. I hope you have some blood pressure meds and a gallon of just for men. youre going to age fast. good luck.

[jjgold]

I could see the casino giving LV Bound everything, luxury rooms, $100 Figs, $400 Robes, limo driver

When he enters sportsbook the manager with the grin on his face watching LV Bound bet Yanks -220 when Pinnacle has it -202

Next night LV Bound doubles up saying they cannot lose again...........Yanks lose

Now he goes takes shot with Dice and before you know it he is down 8k and pressing.........manager comes over and gives him 10k credit with the grin on, before you know it he is down 18k and he is scratching his head and screaming ad yelling like madman and then they next night he is going all in because he is so angry and we know how that ends.

LV Bound stop being silly and stay home and bet for fun

[bradthebloke]

hey another thing too that i dont think anyone mentioned, and if they have already i apologize, but it looks like youre going from march to sept you said>? so it sounds like youre just going out there for the baseball season. you also said youre system made 85k or so last year? what is your unit size going to be? for 25k your size should be 200 or so a game. 85k seriously? Ive not seen anyone that is up 400 units at the end of one season. thats impossible. which leads me to beleive your unit size is going to be much larger than that. if you have a cold streak, you'll be done in a week. and this isnt even play money, its money youre going to live on? what if your car breaks down, unexpected bills roll in, etc? I understand some fellas on here are stating "follow your dreams" and what not, and I can respect that, but this is a suicide mission. Not to mention the major damage youre doing to your pension if you do cash out early. how are youre kids going to college if you fail and your pention gets wiped out? How old are you? If youre not just leaving to get away from your everyday life, theres no reason you cant make bets from home using offshore routes. good luck, but i would take a long hard look at your wife and each one of your kids before you do this.

[Deuce]

I could see the casino giving LV Bound everything, luxury rooms, $100 Figs, $400 Robes, limo driver

When he enters sportsbook the manager with the grin on his face watching LV Bound bet Yanks -220 when Pinnacle has it -202

Next night LV Bound doubles up saying they cannot lose again...........Yanks lose

Now he goes takes shot with Dice and before you know it he is down 8k and pressing.........manager comes over and gives him 10k credit with the grin on, before you know it he is down 18k and he is scratching his head and screaming ad yelling like madman and then they next night he is going all in because he is so angry and we know how that ends.

LV Bound stop being silly and stay home and bet for fun

Personal experience?????

[LVBOUND]

Erock,

I think I explained it wrong, but I am very interested and am listening so please go on.

I have 32k in my pen now. When I leave I get it - 20% I also get to cash out sick and Vac.

So after taxes Ill walk with close to 40k.
15k to saving the other 25 for bankroll.

If I stay 18 more months I will get 3% a year when I get 55.

so if i stay 10 years I get 30 % of my top 2 years when I am 55.

so 47 and 49k so 48 avg

so 30% of 48k is 14400 a year then - taxes to like 900 a month or 450 every 2 weeks after taxes.

So I got an option take the cash now and try to make something with it, knowing my wife has a fantastic police pension (If I was in hers and making what she makes I would never leave).

or I can leave it in and collect 450 every 2 weeks when I am 55. 21 years from now. By the way this number is locked in no matter how much the economy changes. We have no COLA built in.

What was 450 every 2 weeks 20 years ago? compared to today?

What will 450 every 2 weeks be in 20 years? my guess roughly 250.


Now I know I am a little crazy I am not doubting this. I just don't want to regret not doing it if it works out in turn.

Hell if I do not move to Vegas I might leave anyways and take the money and try to do something with it. Like I said I have job offers out there already.

[lyon804]

LV Bound, I have made my final decision as well. My decision is to stay my ass at home and collect money from my business and try to become the best intermediate gambler I can be. When I make money gambling, nothing seems better. However if I lose, well at least I didn't quit my day job Gambling is much easier when you don't need the money as well. Your "systems" and judgements tend to get clouded in life when money is involved. Alot of people have systems until they get hit in the mouth. I have a good system. I grind and grind to get ahead. Once a nice profit is met I start taking shots at the book. Does it work? Sometimes it works great. Sometimes I have had to start over but one thing is certain is there is no pressure at all on me. I love taking shots when I am ahead when the situation arises.

[Vaughany]

Many can accomplish this.

The problem is that the ways of accomplishing this take years to learn and perfect. Either you grind it out as an arbitrage player or you work hard as an advantage player, there is no such thing as a magical system that requires no hard work where you bet every team playing back to back home favs coming off of a home loss of 10+ points. System plays are nonsense life as a gambler is a grind, its not sitting on your ass drinking beer and betting on ridiculous trends. Professional gamblers put in 40+ hour work weeks grinding it out and looking for as many spots to exploit casinos as possible 24-7.

Yeah arbitrage betting is the key, that's how I've made my profits in MMA, but in MMA you can get a fighter at +130 when he comes out then get his opponent at +150 by the time the fight comes around. Im not sure that such crazy line movement occurs in baseball, basketball, and American Football does it? And as JJGold points out, Pinnacle offers the best odds on most sports and as I understand he wont suddenly be able to have an account with them by moving to Las Vegas!

[LVBOUND]

hey another thing too that i dont think anyone mentioned, and if they have already i apologize, but it looks like youre going from march to sept you said>? so it sounds like youre just going out there for the baseball season. you also said youre system made 85k or so last year? what is your unit size going to be? for 25k your size should be 200 or so a game. 85k seriously? Ive not seen anyone that is up 400 units at the end of one season. thats impossible. which leads me to beleive your unit size is going to be much larger than that. if you have a cold streak, you'll be done in a week. and this isnt even play money, its money youre going to live on? what if your car breaks down, unexpected bills roll in, etc? I understand some fellas on here are stating "follow your dreams" and what not, and I can respect that, but this is a suicide mission. Not to mention the major damage youre doing to your pension if you do cash out early. how are youre kids going to college if you fail and your pention gets wiped out? How old are you? If youre not just leaving to get away from your everyday life, theres no reason you cant make bets from home using offshore routes. good luck, but i would take a long hard look at your wife and each one of your kids before you do this.

My unit size is large and I am scared shitless. I hired a programmer from Romania to track my system every year since 1999 (as far back as covers goes). It works almost every year (YES I SAID ALMOST) 2007 and 2008 it lost. The only problem with those 2 years, is the way the programmer designed it there was no room for personal handicapping, which I did the last two years.

I do not have the energy to go into more detail about my system than that. I can tell you that it is straight betting. I showed a few people who were interested at the bash and although they were amazed with the results, they thought the sample size of roughly 200 games a season was too small to test.

[vividjohn45]

hey, man. i live in vegas. i moved here seriously about 7 yrs ago. i got off work last night and grinded out profit. on the machines. (4 hrs) it can be done, but it is a grind.

today i expect to grind later and win.

i wuld not move from vegas, even if i knew a nuke was coming. we are high target for nuclear strike. they were flying the fighter jets today over the apartment from Nellis Air Force base today 5 miles away about 9am vegas time.

gl.

[vividjohn45]

hey hey, my my rock n roll will never die.

its better to burn out, then fade away.

[obamaismyuncle]

LV Bound, I have made my final decision as well. My decision is to stay my ass at home and collect money from my business and try to become the best intermediate gambler I can be. When I make money gambling, nothing seems better. However if I lose, well at least I didn't quit my day job Gambling is much easier when you don't need the money as well. Your "systems" and judgements tend to get clouded in life when money is involved. Alot of people have systems until they get hit in the mouth. I have a good system. I grind and grind to get ahead. Once a nice profit is met I start taking shots at the book. Does it work? Sometimes it works great. Sometimes I have had to start over but one thing is certain is there is no pressure at all on me. I love taking shots when I am ahead when the situation arises.

great advice

[vividjohn45]

oh yeah, immortal words of rocker neil young.

[Erock87]

If you're telling me "the way this number is locked in no matter how much the economy changes. We have no COLA built in," I'm going to ask you how much you yourself save on a monthly basis. From what you're telling me, it sounds like one of two things is happening: 1) You don't understand your Employer pension plan, or 2) Your Employer had a defined benefit plan, froze it due to the economy, and that's where it stands. Typically when an Employer freezes a DB plan (one based on years of service and salary, rather then contributions into an account), they compensate the loss by opening a DC plan (your typical 401(k)), and allow you to defer your earnings pre-tax into an account often matched with Employer contributions (typically 3-6%). A big question in all if this is your age. If you are in your late 30s or 40s, you are looking at 25ish years of investing. This is a buyer's market...now is really not the time to pull money out of the market, rather pour it in (only my opinion, not factual on any level). However, if you are in your mid 20s to early 30s, you have some leeway in terms of investing. You're biggest friend is time, and if you come back with nothing...you are severely behind the 8-ball.

It comes down to this, if you succeed, you will never really be able to retire, because Vegas won't give you a pension...so you'll be in smoke-filled Casinos, or at least gambling on a daily basis until you die. You no longer will feel the rush associated a Win, rather you will need that money to buy food, or save for your daughter's secondary education. Insurance? You're giving that up through your Employer, and either go without or have to pay higher premiums.

If you fail, you return to perhaps a better job, but you're really late in the investing game in terms of a pension. You need to max out your "catch-up" contributions to compensate for your money lost chasing a dream, and you put your entire family in a financially strapped situation. Chances are good you wouldn't be able to retire until well into your 60s. Your daughters are going to want to go on vacations, yet you're going to have to tell them No, because you lost in a no-win situation.

My advice? Again, without knowing you or much of your financial/personal information: Go to work, collect that pension. You and your wife set up some sort of savings account (assuming your Employer's don't already have them set up), and try to deposit 10-12% of every paycheck into it. If you do it the right way, you should be able to retire in your 50s, and then you can go to Vegas and gamble with the yearly interest, never touching the base amount. If you can save an amount of $500,000 by the time your 60, and the market yields a 7% return, you're looking at $35,000 a year in interest alone. That's a time when you can move to Vegas, and gamble with house money. Best of all? You can move there with your wife, and not miss out on your children growing up.

Whatever you do I wish you the best of luck, but for your family's sake I hope you stay home.

[vividjohn45]

better to burn out,, then fade away. rock n roll will never die.

[jgilmartin]

My unit size is large and I am scared shitless. I hired a programmer from Romania to track my system every year since 1999 (as far back as covers goes). It works almost every year (YES I SAID ALMOST) 2007 and 2008 it lost. The only problem with those 2 years, is the way the programmer designed it there was no room for personal handicapping, which I did the last two years.

I do not have the energy to go into more detail about my system than that. I can tell you that it is straight betting. I showed a few people who were interested at the bash and although they were amazed with the results, they thought the sample size of roughly 200 games a season was too small to test.

How did you do against the closing line in your backtesting?

[vividjohn45]

get a job at a casino bud.

[vividjohn45]

sports betting is just part of a diversiied portfolio.

we play black jack, variated video poker, poker, slots, craps and roulette bro. this is vegas bro.

hey man i hit a 25 to 1 royal flush with dueces last nite. dueces wild. immdiate payout. go home. smiling big.

[vividjohn45]

hey hey my my rock n roll will never die.

its better to burn out, then fade away

the fighter jet is flying over right now.

[vividjohn45]

i've hit 2 four dueces the past 2 weeks. 200 to 1 payout. and 4 wild royals. 25 to 1. in 2 weeks.

[lyon804]

great advice

Most "professionals" here will disagree Since I am not a professional nor do I care to become one it doesn't matter to me... In the real grand scheme of things I am "peon gambler" but I sure as hell can put pressure on a book in just a few weeks because I have no limitations. Nothing like turning 2K into some serious money in a short time. A peon can't make money grinding at the books at 1%. In order to do that you must be well greased bank roll wise and turning your money over and over and hitting 54% or better. I know how professionals do it and it ain't easy nor is it fun. I know on some months I make more money than professional gamblers and sure as hell have way more fun doing it. I love reading all the professional advice given to peons on this site by other peons on br management.. let's face it the average guy here deposits no more than 300-500 with a sportsbook and we tell them to grind away at 1% GTFO with that. In theory the advice is sound but not practical with that br. Sure it will keep them from losing as fast, but also if you went on a heater you made what $50 bucks

[vividjohn45]

dueces wild with full pay. i.e 5 to 1 on 4 of a kind. not 4 to 1 payout. with perfect stratedgy is 100.76% payback.

i.e positive expectation. no online casino will offer such return. but some vegas ones do.

[wtf]

anyone ever notice these guys are ALWAYS married to women with high flying careers?

lets see

she is married to a cop in florida with three kids

hmmm

i smell a 200 pounder that is assistant to the assistant to the assistant manager at wendys

[unusialsusp5]

this is the most ridiculous decision you could ever make. you don't even have close to enough money to do this. that 25k will be down to 5k before the college basketball conference tournaments even start. you don't have the expertise or knowledge to bet baseball. you will be bored to death out there trying to do this and soon penniless. make sure your apt. has decent air conditioning too. you will get tired traveling around trying to find good lines and dodging tourists.

[ebbearsfb1]

this is actually pathetic.... you should be embrassed as a man to do to that to your family... guess you don't care if your kids know there father..

chasing a dream that has no pension very good for your family...


i don't understand y not just play at an online book... theres no problems with this as long as you pay ur taxes at the end when you with draw...

you think its ne different in vegas?



such a stupid thread.... you need help not a trip to vegas

[xyzky]

my dream is to become a police officer

Well get your fat ass off the couch!

[C-Gold]

Just don't end up like this law enforcement officer

[mr.ed]

Besides higher limits, I can't see any other advantages Vegas has over betting offshore.

[Le_Donk]

When he enters sportsbook the manager with the grin on his face watching LV Bound bet Yanks -220 when Pinnacle has it -202

THIS !
i dont think you will be able to beat the vegas lines, also 40k isnt enough to go pro.
oh and stay away from drugs

[Buried_PIRATE]

Good luck... :0

[vanzack]

LV -

I admire your "chasing a dream" attitude, but maybe there is a better way. It scares me that someone wants to be a pro gambler, but seems to not have considered all options and made the best choice. If there is something personal driving you to vegas, fine, I cant reason with that, but otherwise have you considered the following?

1. Sports betting is not illegal. It is illegal to take bets, not to make them. Go search my post on it here, it is in a thread about legality. The law is clear, I have retained legal counsel that backs it up personally - but any research in to the matter is conslusive.

2. Stick with your job.

3. Get a loan for 25K. You cant ask 5 relatives for 5k each loan? You dont have CC's? You have no equity in your house? Anything, and I mean anything, is better than cashing in your pension.

4. Take the 25K and deposit in your book of choice and see how you do.

You seem hellbent on avoiding the obvious advantages of the above easy plan, which makes me think the post earlier about you running from something must be accurate - but really - take it from someone who knows the drill - from a simple business standpoint your expenses will kill your profits at that level.

My plan above has one risk - losing 25K. Your plan has life changing risks, with no clear advantage.

Think about it.

[pattymayo]

hey LV, can I get your wifes number when you leave. Better she's banging some guy you told your story to on a gambling forum rather than a complete stranger. Thanks

[HauntingTheHoly]

I got a solution. A not-so-brilliant solution, but one that will actually work.

As of right now, LV is guaranteed 99% to lose everything, for the reasons mentioned by others. However, we can see that his mind is made up and he NEEDS to gamble with his 25k. Those of you who are trying to be rational with him are ignoring this and cannot help him no matter how much sense you talk. Refer to Erock87 discussion.

@LV - since I know you intellectually understand why you are 99% guaranteed to lose everything, yet still need to take your shot "so you won't wonder forever" - why not just make a one bet deal with yourself? Monitor sports all year in 2011 the way you always do, when you see the "play of the year" - fly up to vegas. Bet 25K on it after signing a contract with yourself in Blood that win or lose it's the last gamble of your life. Since it's the play of the year, you've prolly got at least a 55% chance or better of doubling your money, and if you lose, you will be at the same place you're heading towards now, only in this scenerio you will not have wasted such a tremendous amount of TIME. And your time is worth more than anything. If you lose in this scenerio, you'll be in MUCH better overall shape than in your scenerio. And if you win, it's a much crazier/better story than any "chipping away at the books over two years before hitting the negative streak and going busto" story you'll have in yours.

[Fishhead]

Besides higher limits, I can't see any other advantages Vegas has over betting offshore.

Better lines in some cases...............

Availibility to credit................

No hassles and 110% guaranteed payouts............

110% legal ........................



YES, THERE ARE ADVANTAGES, MAKE NO MISTAKE ABOUT IT.