SBR Bracket Contest Scenario Analysis

Ganchrow · 03-23-08, 10:15 PM

see above

Ganchrow · 03-23-08, 10:26 PM

Following are average player results given the 8 possible combinations of national championships winners and losers. Once again, the dollar values shown are simple averages and not expectations.

Only players with averages ≥ $0 are shown.

Ganchrow · 03-23-08, 10:32 PM

Ganchrow · 03-23-08, 11:07 PM

The attached file (raw.zip) contains two text files: res.txt and eng.txt.

res.txt contains for each of the (currently) 32,768 scenarios and money finishers: place #, player name, player score, and player wins (all tab-separated). Each scenario is given as a binary code prepended by the string "==". The ith digit of the code refers to the winner of the ith game where a "0" would mean a victory by the team on top (as shown in the SBR bracket listing) and a "1" a victory by the team on the bottom. The 1st 8 games are the round of 16, the next 4 the round of 8, the next 2 the round of 4, and the last 1 the national championship. Games are ordered within each round starting from the top left of the SBR brackets, moving down to the bottom left, and then continuing on the top right, and moving down to the bottom right.

eng.txt contains for each plain English outcomes (same game ordering as above) the actual dollar result for each money finisher.

These files will be updated at the end of every coming round.

Download raw.zip here (915 bytes)

dwaechte · 03-23-08, 11:09 PM

Very cool stuff Ganch. Glad to see I've still got a shot.

SBR Lou · 03-23-08, 11:18 PM

Wow that looks like a ton of work to compute. Great stuff.

Justin7 · 03-24-08, 01:07 AM

Ganch -

can you run the same sims using moneylines to figure odds of the next match up, and Sagarin ratings for theoretical match ups after that?

donjuan · 03-24-08, 01:15 AM

can you run the same sims using moneylines to figure odds of the next match up, and Sagarin ratings for theoretical match ups after that?

Why not just use the futures markets where you get odds for reaching the Final 4, championship game and champion?

Justin7 · 03-24-08, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Why not just use the futures markets where you get odds for reaching the Final 4, championship game and champion?

I asked Olympic if they could pay me based on my expected value instead of the actual results. Sadly, they said no.

donjuan · 03-24-08, 01:19 AM

I asked Olympic if they could pay me based on my expected value instead of the actual results. Sadly, they said no.

I'd even take my expected growth.

Iwinyourmoney · 03-24-08, 03:57 AM

So since I am nowhere on the downloaded files, does that mean I have no shot to win?

Art Vandeleigh · 03-24-08, 06:33 AM

Man, I about fell out of my chair when I saw that first list, wtf am I doing there?

I'm currently in 317th place, and the only reason I'm that high up is because my username starts with the letter "A". If I was Zachary Vandeleigh or something like that, I'd be listed as 343rd place. Also I have no real dogs left in my pound. I guess that's the power of picking a number 4 seed to go all the way.

Go Washington State and their Tenacious D!!!

Ganchrow · 03-24-08, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by crazyl

Wow that looks like a ton of work to compute.

And it was even tougher than you might have thought -- my abacus was broken at the time I ran the computations.

Ganchrow · 03-24-08, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Ganch -

can you run the same sims using moneylines to figure odds of the next match up, and Sagarin ratings for theoretical match ups after that?

I'm still waiting for a complete and coherent futures market to emerge.

In the meantime, the raw data is available for anyone wishing to perform his or her own expected value analysis.

Ganchrow · 03-24-08, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by Iwinyourmoney

So since I am nowhere on the downloaded files, does that mean I have no shot to win?

The analysis does not take into account the fact that SBR employees are not prize eligible. This effect might create a potential winner where none previously existed.

Other than that ... no, you have no shot.

Ganchrow · 03-24-08, 02:58 PM

Following are expected values for each player's bracket entry (for EVs ≥ $0). The probabilities on which the Evs were based follow below:

Ganchrow · 03-24-08, 03:04 PM

And here are the conditional probabilities assumed (data comes from an unspecified combination of Pinnacle+WSEX+Greek):

Complaints as to the perceived accuracy of the above figures will not be entertained.

Checkerboard · 03-24-08, 11:49 PM

Thanks Ganchrow. This had to be a fair amount of work!

slacker00 · 03-26-08, 04:58 PM

Yes. Thanks Ganchrow.

Nice to know I've still got a shot with the two big favs.

C'mon UCLA over UNC in the final.

Sportsgirl · 03-26-08, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by Ganchrow

And it was even tougher than you might have thought -- my abacus was broken at the time I ran the computations.

That sounds painful.

Ganchrow · 03-28-08, 02:53 PM

Data has been updated to include last night's results.

Robyn · 03-28-08, 02:55 PM

I am very sad that Tennessee effed us.

RickySteve · 04-02-08, 03:21 PM

No update?

Sean · 04-02-08, 03:29 PM

Ganchrow should be back in a couple of days with updates.

donjuan · 04-02-08, 06:01 PM

I have ~$220 in equity by my calculations. If you give me the scenarios where you cash, I can give you your equity (based on my estimations) as well.

rake922 · 04-03-08, 08:08 AM

Don what am I?

RickySteve · 04-03-08, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by rake922

Don what am I?

Your equity is $19.86.

RickySteve · 04-03-08, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

I have ~$220 in equity by my calculations. If you give me the scenarios where you cash, I can give you your equity (based on my estimations) as well.

I have you at $230.33.

HedgeHog · 04-04-08, 08:29 AM

Keep in mind that the prize money will be in the form of "free play" which is worth roughly half that of actual cash prizes. I bring this up in case anyone is considering hedging.

PRIZES:
• Total Purse: $5000 from Las Palmas
• Prizes awarded in the form of free play accounts at Las Palmas• All cash prizes subject to 5x rollover and Las Palmas terms & conditions• Top 10 Finishers’ accounts at Las Palmas will be credited as follows --

1. $2,000
2. $1,000
3. $500
4. $400
5. $325
6. $225
7. $175
8. $150
9. $125
10. $100

rake922 · 04-04-08, 10:19 AM

Alot of the above information is wrong... I think

donjuan · 04-04-08, 11:28 AM

Keep in mind that the prize money will be in the form of "free play" which is worth roughly half that of actual cash prizes. I bring this up in case anyone is considering hedging.

When you get free plays you should not be betting +100 lines.

Rake,

What information is wrong?

RickySteve,

Thanks.

HedgeHog · 04-04-08, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

When you get free plays you should not be betting +100 lines.

Rake,

What information is wrong?

RickySteve,

Thanks.

Agree about the use of free plays. Just wanted to give people the heads up on the actual prizes. With Free Plays you forfeit your stake on each bet, so their value is certainly less than actual cash.

rake922 · 04-04-08, 12:34 PM

I just find it hard to beleive I have an Equity of $19.86

(I'm in 3rd place as of now)

donjuan · 04-04-08, 04:45 PM

I believe there was a decimal error there.