Sports Investements

[mathdotcom]

Let me try this again. You think because you have a 'non-mechanical' approach, you can make martingale work. This must mean you believe you have, on average, a > 50% chance of winning on any given game. If this is so, why don't you just bet and forget martingale?

You're right about this thread not going anywhere... your sample size is way too small to talk about whether or not your system is working. Check back with us every month. I bet you lose all 10 dimes within 2 months.

[DukeJohn]

im considering, dropping this thread (when the open trades are complete) and finish this on my own.

Well, perhaps you should continue to post them. This is what happens every time a chasing or martingale system comes on the forum. Probably every person tries it at one time or another. People try and add variations to it, but in the end it fails. However, the problem is, no one ever continues posting the plays. First off, it is a difficult thing to do, post plays everyday, especially if you are getting ridiculed. I see you are posting in NBA and NCAAB. You will probably hit MLB next. This all takes a lot of energy and I hope you do not get discouraged and stop posting your system here. Sure we think it will fail, but hell, what do we really know. For God sakes we post on a forum thinking we know this or that, but if we truly did, would we really be spending our time doing this. Don't get me wrong, there are some really good picks going on in the forum. Also, the information for a starting handicapper is second to none. As for mathematical stuff, well you certainly have people in here who are passionate about this industry and are willing to help. However, please, keep in mind. There are peeps who are looking at this site for the first time. Or maybe they've been around for awhile and think they have discovered the answer. One may even be contemplating doing what you are doing. After all, you were doing good for a while. It should work right. Well, Mathdotcom has thrown down the gauntlet:

I bet you lose all 10 dimes within 2 months.

Don't back away, please, step up. Continue your work here. I, as many others, would like to see where this takes you.

[mathdotcom]

Just a small note:

I understand you're not factoring losing runs into your balance.. but it's pretty misleading to state a % return on your investment as a net profit when some of your potentially huge liabilities have yet to be determined.

Another note:

You're up $275 on closed trades. That's good. But that's equal to just one of your outstanding bets (Boston -110) of $254. If that loses, then it's a $500 bet, then $1000, and hopefully by then you're sweating. Similarly, your trades "4" and "8" are just one loss away from being in the same situation as your Boston bet.

A possible recommendation: if you can win all your outstanding bets, take the $$ and quit. If you want to keep experimenting with it, why not reduce your initial investment to $1000 and start with smaller bets? If your system does work, you'll only make 1/10th the profit you would have with $10,000 but then if it *is* a good system you can always start using it with bigger bets in a few months.

Of course you know I am very skeptical, but who doesn't like experimenting? Just don't want to see you lose 10 dimes in the process.

[Ganchrow]

i dont think this was a popular subject (martingale), even though i think, when its combined with handicapping and not used in a mechanical format, it could be profitable. im considering, dropping this thread (when the open trades are complete) and finish this on my own.

Martingale's an unpopular subject because as staking strategies go it's generally rather foolish. You're not the first person to think otherwise and, if you keep it up, you won't be the last person it costs a lot of money, either.

For a mildly mathematical look at Martingale, see this post.

[mathdotcom]

Nice post, Ganchrow.

Indeed, if he keeps it up, Investor's investment will end up in the hospital. Then not even L'Hopital's rule can save it.

Sigh... I tried.

[Trojan]

Guys save your breath. The Investor is well known on other forums as SSI. Every week he comes up with a new system, runs it for a brief period of time and then quits. TheRX is littered with his failed systems which is likely why he is posting here as the Investor.

Timetopay and Cannon know him very well and have bashed him relentlessly for his schemes.

[The Investor]

You guys dont know me and i dont know you. Im merely going to show you how to make some money.

3/23 Initial Investment: ($10,000)
3/28 Current Investment Value: (+$10,400) (+4%)

Closed Trades: 10-0 (+$400)

One Open Trade: (Trade 10) resumes saturday night.

back when i find (Trade 12).

[mathdotcom]

Alright, I'm done with this.

Keep posting though, I will check back at the end of May. Somehow I doubt I'll find your thread then (BARRELED IN INVESTOR)

[The Investor]

why are you now done with this?

[mathdotcom]

Because you've gone 4-5 days and turned a small profit when you were only a 4-in-a-row losing streak away from losing $10,000. You are so confident in your system in such a short time. You talk about mathematical models when you don't even know/understand the importance of sample size. I could roll dice to determine my picks and how much I bet on them and make way more than you did in 10 games.

The only test is to see how they do over a long period of time, which you haven't done. So instead of showing short term success (despite a flirt w/ disaster) as proof your system works, just show the #s.

[The Investor]

fair enough, just show the numbers.

Lines are up at the greek and here is everything for saturday, in this thread.

3/23 Investment: ($10,000)
3/29 Current Investment Value: ($10,400) (+4%)
Closed Trades: 10-0 (+$400)

Trades for saturday march 29

Trade 10) Isles Over 5.5 (+1.00) $105 to win $105

Trade 12) Ott Under 5.5 (+1.00) $25 to win $25
new trade, fade of Ott Overs (4 straight)

Trade 13) Portland Over 192 (-1.10) $55 to win $50
new trade, fade of Port Under (4 straight)

nothing else for this thread until sunday march 30.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[The Investor]

3/23 Initial Investment: ($10,000)
3/29 Current Investment Value: ($10,475) (+4.75%)

Closed Trades: 12-0 (+$475)

pending for late saturday night.

Trade 13: Portland Over 192 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

New Trades for sunday march 30

Trade 14) CLB Over 5.5 (+1.05) $24 to win $25
fading columbus's 6 straight Unders

Trade 15) Vancouver (-1.40) $70 to win $50
fading the calgary road trip (4 games)

Trade 16) Spurs (ATS) no line posted
fading rockets road trip

Trade 17) Hawks (ATS) no line posted
fading knicks road trip

Trade 18) New Orleans Under 197 (-1.10) $55 to win $50
fading NO's 4 straight Overs

Trade 19) to be posted sometime sunday

quick notes..... trades (14 & 15) will be the last for the nhl regualr season, trades will resume in the playoffs.

ill post the lines sunday for trades (16, 17 and 19)

Good Day Gentlemen.

[The Investor]

Trade 16) spurs -5.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

Trade 17) hawks -12.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

Trade 19) Sea Over 215 (-1.10) $55 to win $50
fading the sonics 4 straight Unders

this should catch us up to date. basically 6 plays on sunday.

here is a small breakdown.. game by game..

Overall: 12-7

Game 1: 7-6
Game 2: 4-1
Game 3: 1-0

with (Trade 13) pending. it will resume on april 2nd.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[The Investor]

added Trade for Monday March 31

Trade 20) Clippers Under 193 (-1.10) $55 to win $50
fading the clippers 4 straight Overs

there will be nothing new added to this thread, until at least tuesday april 1.

no open trades, will resume until that time.

ill update this again, sometime after todays action but now its time to turn to mlb (on monday).

Im going to have something totally unique for the start of the mlb season. it will be posted in the mlb room and played separately from this thread.

btw (Trade 16) closed earlier today, so for the closed trades we are now at (+5.25%). at the moment, got the CD beat. heh mathdotcom.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[jjgold]

Got the CD beat so far................its a long road Son

Good Luck

[donjuan]

If you're betting with an edge you will make far more money betting Kelly than this. If you're not betting with an edge, you shouldn't call it an investment.

[The Investor]

i appreciate all the helpful comments and suggestions but like everything else that i get into, i will make money. the sports market will be no exception.

i have something unique for the mlb forum this season and ive invested some money into that market. i invite mathdotcom, durito and all the others, who have given me some valuable suggestions, to drop in there and check out the progress. Like i said, i assume people are making money in this market. if your not, maybe you should re-evaluate what your doing.

3/23 Initial Investment: ($10,000)
3/31 Current Value: ($10,650) (+6.50%) on closed trades
Closed Trades: 16-0 (+$650)
Open Trades: (13,17,18)

New Trades for Monday March 31.

Trade 20) Clippers Under 193 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

Here is a game by game breakdown of this endeavor.

Overall Record: 16-9 (64%)

Game 1: 11-8 (58%)
Game 2: 4-1 (80%)
Game 3: 1-0 (100%)

Final NHL Numbers: 8-0 (+$275)

there have been no game (4's) or (5'), so i hardly call there ever being a time, of being on the brink.

Big Note here: i reserve all rights to end any trade, at any time, if i think its necessary and it will counted as a loss on the record.

Dont look for any mlb trades to appear in this for a few days.

back on tuesday.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[The Investor]

With the winding down of the NBA and NHL seasons and with the playoffs still ahead of us, im going to be easing this investment strategy into the baseball season, with the earliest trade coming today.

Here is the Update heading into April 2008

3/23 Initial Invesment: $10,000
4/1 Current Investment Value: $10,700 (+7%) closed trades
Closed Trades: 17-0 (+$700)
3 Open Trades (13,17,18)

Trades for Tuesday april 1

Trade 17) Milwaukee (NO Line Available) Post it later.
Fading the knicks road trip (ATS)

Trade 18) Hornets Under 209 (-1.10) $116 to win $105

At least one new trade will be posted later today, along with the nba line for the bucks.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[The Investor]

Trade 17) Bucks -7 (-1.10) $116 to win $105
fading the knicks road trip

New Trades for tuesday April 1

Trade 21) Angels (-1.20) $30 to win $25
Bet on the Angels to win One.

Trade 22) Yanks Over 9 (+1.00) $50 to win $50
bet on the Yanks to go Over the Posted total.

Nothing else. back on wednesday.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[The Investor]

New Trades for wednesday april 2

Trade 23) Hawks Under 205 (-1.10) $55 to win $50
fading the hawks 4 straight Overs

Trade 24) Tigers (-2.00) $50 to win $25
Play on the tigers homestand to win one.

Trade 25) Braves (-1.10) $28 to win $25
Play on the braves homestand to win one.

Ill update everything on wednesday.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[The Investor]

Complete Update:

3/23 Initial Investment: ($10,000)
4/2 Current Value: ($10,775) (+7.75%) closed trades only
Closed Trades: 19-0 (+$775)
Open Trades: (13,17,22)

Here is the breakdown, game by game.

Overall: 19-11 (+$499) (63.3%)

Game 1: 13-9 (59%)
Game 2: 5-2 (71.4%)
Game 3: 1-0 (100%)
Game 4: 0-0
Game 5: 0-0

Overall NHL: 8-0 (+$275)

Trades for wednesday april 2

Trade 13) Portland Over (NO total posted yet)

Trade 17) Memhis (ATS) (No line available yet)

Trade 22) Yanks Over 9.5 (+1.00) $100 to win $100

Trade 23) Hawks Under 205 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

Trade 24) Tigers (-2.00) $50 to win $25

Trade 25) Braves (-1.10) $28 to win $25

ill post the lines for trades (13 & 17) later today.

that should be a good update, as of now. nothing further added for wednesday.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[The Investor]

Trade 13) Portland Over 205.5 (-1.10) $116 to win $105

Trade 17) Memphis -8 (-1.10) $243 to win $221

Good Day Gentlemen.

[The Investor]

one day game for thursday.

Trade 24) Tigers (-1.70) $128 to win $75

ill update everything else, sometime thursday.

[The Investor]

Big day today. here is a complete 11 day update and thursday's trades.

3/23 Initial Investment: $10,000
4/3 Current Value: $10,850 (+$850) (+8.50%) closed trades

Closed Trades: 21-0 (+$850) (+8.50%)

Open Trades: (13,22,23,24)

Overall Record: 21-15 (+$424)(58.3%) (+4.24%) if i walked right now but im not.

Trades for thursday april 3

Trade 13) Portland Over 182 (-1.10) $243 to win $221

Trade 22) Yanks Over 9 (-1.05) $210 to win $200

Trade 24) Tigers (-1.70) $128 to win $75

i posted the tigers last night. No new trades for thursday, got to keep risk in check.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[mathdotcom]

Your trades are lookin scary. If trade 13 or 22 loses, you are gonna be betting $500 next game at least once. Then 1000, then 2000, then 4000, then uh oh.

If 2/3 of your bets lose today, you will no longer have an opportunity to walk away w/ a profit.

Will be watching. Sweating yet?

[The Investor]

im actually a little worried about (Trade 22). i rushed into that one. All the rest, im ok with.

Each trade (with the exception of trade 22) has been planned out and capped at least 5 games out.

Im glad you will be watching.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[The Investor]

ok, id like to thank (mathdotcom) (durito) and all the others who have posted in this thread.

It is now Over.

Final Record: 21-4 (with those 4 all suspended) (-$157)
(-1.57%).

Now let me say, it really was none of your comments that did this. Im stopping for several reasons.

1. I do not do anything that loses money.
2. I messed up (trade 22) and (trade 24), they should have never been started.
3. Im going into research, that will probably take several days. I hope to return, when i have something else to offer.

Not saying your right, just saying your right this time.

No hard feeling toward anyone. Im going to replace my ($157) that i lost on this and come back with something else in a few days.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[mathdotcom]

What was wrong with your trades 22 and 24? I'm glad you quit while you did. By having several chases going on at the same time, you increased the sample size of your example --> thats why i predicted you'd go bust within a couple months.

I didn't check the scores, but as I mentioned, if you lost 2/3 of those posted bets, your next 2 bets would be $500 each. Yikes.

So why are you stopping? I think you are blaming your capping instead of your MM. Btw, if you had bet the same amount on each game you bet, would you have made a profit? In that case, it's *proof* your money management was bad, since your bets were > 50% but you still lost $.

[polishkielbasa10]

I really hope this toronto investment turns out better than that baseball system...will keep an eye out

[The Investor]

quickly mathdotcom........ the Overs on the yanks were started before they had played (4 straight Unders) and the Tigers to win series, did not use good money management, as they were going to be too big a favorite.

actually trade 13 was a winner with a better line....

i lost (-$157)...... im working on something really big and ill lay it out right here but im doing research.....

im going to invest the same ($10,000). call this a no harm, no foul trial run.

i promise to return as soon as my back research is complete.

im thru with the (08 NBA season) and the (07 MLB season). astonishing results.....

ill be back and we can have round 2. just give me a little time.

[mathdotcom]

I really hope you don't approach the stock market the way you do sports betting.

Why the hell are you investing 10 dimes again on your next strategy? Cut your roll back to 1 dime and divide your first bet by 10.

[durito]

A little suggestion:

There is NO money management system (chase, martingale, a combination, whatever) that will make money is you are making bets with negative expected value.

Ditch the systems, and spend your time developing your handicapping skills.

[The Investor]

the $10,000 is simply risk capital. im willing to put that much up but

i tell you what, im going to cut it in half and play to win $20 and not $50.

that is, if the back research holds up......... so far so good but im only thru the (07) nba and (07) mlb seasons.

im going to do the (07) nfl and the (07-08) nhl seasons next.

ill check in and let you know when im ready. i think this has the possibility to be a dominant strategy.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[mathdotcom]

You will never make it in sports betting