NCAA Basketball Picks (21-13) Coppin State +6.5 vs. Mt St Mary’s: O/U 127.5

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  • mofome
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-19-07
    • 13003

    #1
    NCAA Basketball Picks (21-13) Coppin State +6.5 vs. Mt St Mary’s: O/U 127.5
    Coppin State +6.5 vs. Mt St Mary’s: O/U 127.5

    It’s not every year that we see an NCAA Tournament first, but this year will be the first time that a 20 loss team will be a part of the festivities. Coppin State went through a 21 game stretch where they lost 20, but they bounced back to win twelve of their final 13 and take their conference title. Mt St Mary’s (15-14) was not overly impressive this year, but they used a great stretch in the NEC Tournament to earn themselves an invite to March Madness 2008.

    The Mountaineers do most of their damage on the defensive end where they rank in the top 50 nationally in FG% defense. Jeremy Good (5-9, guard) leads the team in steals at over 2 per contest while Sam Atupem (6-7, Forward) has 44 blocks on the season. The Mount hasn’t allowed over 70 points in any of their last nine contests and they managed to hold Sacred Heart to under 30% from the field in the NEC finals.

    On a bit of a run, the Coppin State Eagles appear to be flying high, but consider this, their most favorable matchup statistic is their FT% defense. Why anyone lists such a stat I don’t know, but the numbers don’t lie. On the offensive side of the ball the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference champions rank outside of the top 315 in shooting percentage and points per game. Tywain McKee is the one outstanding talent on the Eagles and he’ll have to do it all for them to be awarded the chance to face the No.1 overall seed North Carolina Tarheels. McKee played 39 minutes against Morgan State and lit up the scoreboard for 33 points in carrying his team to this stage.

    With both teams playing in an unfamiliar setting, on such a large stage, with so much at stake, I expect them to come out a bit tight. Mount St Mary’s is known for their defense while Coppin States hallmark is their ineptitude on offense. The Mount covers the six and a half while this game stays under the total.


    My plays: Mt St Mary’s -6.5 & Under 127.5

  • mofome
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-19-07
    • 13003

    #2
    lines at justbet
    Comment
    • diogee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-11-08
      • 19477

      #3
      Thanks for the write Mofo and GL. I will follow on this one
      Comment
      • mofome
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 12-19-07
        • 13003

        #4
        Originally posted by diogee
        Thanks for the write Mofo and GL. I will follow on this one


        ty dio, bol to us

        Comment
        • mofome
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-19-07
          • 13003

          #5
          Comment
          • trytrytry
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 03-13-06
            • 23656

            #6
            like Mt st MArys in this one
            Comment
            • Cee
              SBR MVP
              • 12-24-07
              • 1899

              #7
              GL, i'll prolly join as well
              Comment
              • mofome
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 12-19-07
                • 13003

                #8
                time to bring a couple home.

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                • WestsidePete
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 07-19-07
                  • 8049

                  #9
                  Mount St Mary's all the way here...I can't touch the total..they may blow their asses out....last game only 123 total pts for Mt St Mary game, the opp only shot 29%, before that 13 games in a row went over this total....7 of last 12 games Mary's has shot over 50%...Coppin St has shot over 50% ONCE ALL SEASON...Mount St Mary's -7 for me
                  Comment
                  • mofome
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 12-19-07
                    • 13003

                    #10
                    Originally posted by WestsidePete
                    Mount St Mary's all the way here...I can't touch the total..they may blow their asses out....last game only 123 total pts for Mt St Mary game, the opp only shot 29%, before that 13 games in a row went over this total....7 of last 12 games Mary's has shot over 50%...Coppin St has shot over 50% ONCE ALL SEASON...Mount St Mary's -7 for me


                    nice info as always Pete

                    Comment
                    • trojan87
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 03-11-08
                      • 111

                      #11
                      i like the -6.5 play... i was on the losing end of the NEC championship game... MSM can play in great spurts, but they allowed sacred heart to come back by shooting ice cold at a couple times... still i think coppin is definately overmatched... i'd take the under too but right now matchbook has shite odds for it
                      Comment
                      • MonkeyF0cker
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 06-12-07
                        • 12144

                        #12
                        I'm on Mt. St. Marys (-7) as well. Not a fan of the total in this one. GL fellas.
                        Comment
                        • WestsidePete
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 07-19-07
                          • 8049

                          #13
                          nice write up mo,

                          definitely looks solid....
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #14
                            I might be one of the few, but I'm on Coppin & the points. Outside of their non-conference schedule, this team has only been beaten by more than 7 twice in conference play since Jan.1. Sure, they aren't pretty. But this is a senior-laden squad that found ways to win when they needed to in the last 6 weeks of the season. I personally think the FG% defense stat is over-rated. Look at PPG allowed. Coppin is 107th in the nation and MSTM is 117, not a whole lot of difference for the 5% difference in FG% defense. I do agree that Coppin is obviously not a great shooting club, but during their streak where they've won 12 of 13 ... they are averaging 67.8 PPG - almost 9 better than their "season" average which was heavily skewed by a brutal non-conference schedule. Mt. St.Mary's may win, but 7 points is too much to pass up for me in a game that should be tight IMO.
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                            • mofome
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 12-19-07
                              • 13003

                              #15
                              Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                              I might be one of the few, but I'm on Coppin & the points. Outside of their non-conference schedule, this team has only been beaten by more than 7 twice in conference play since Jan.1. Sure, they aren't pretty. But this is a senior-laden squad that found ways to win when they needed to in the last 6 weeks of the season. I personally think the FG% defense stat is over-rated. Look at PPG allowed. Coppin is 107th in the nation and MSTM is 117, not a whole lot of difference for the 5% difference in FG% defense. I do agree that Coppin is obviously not a great shooting club, but during their streak where they've won 12 of 13 ... they are averaging 67.8 PPG - almost 9 better than their "season" average which was heavily skewed by a brutal non-conference schedule. Mt. St.Mary's may win, but 7 points is too much to pass up for me in a game that should be tight IMO.

                              i think the gf% defense is actually more important than ppg. style of play dictates a lot of your ppga, your fg% defense can not be masked.
                              Comment
                              • EaglesPhan36
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-06-06
                                • 71662

                                #16
                                Style will be a big part for sure. Telling sign will be FG attempts. Coppin usually out-shoots their opponents no matter what the %. Mt. Saint Mary's last 5 losses have come in games where they were out-shot by opponents hitting at a 43% clip or less. And again Coppin's FG% D if you want to use that stat has been much better during their hot streak than what the season stats show. I guess basically I am looking more at recent play for Coppin than the whole body of work for my analysis in this one because that's the team I believe will show up. Of course I could be totally off.
                                Comment
                                • mofome
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 12-19-07
                                  • 13003

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                  Style will be a big part for sure. Telling sign will be FG attempts. Coppin usually out-shoots their opponents no matter what the %. Mt. Saint Mary's last 5 losses have come in games where they were out-shot by opponents hitting at a 43% clip or less. And again Coppin's FG% D if you want to use that stat has been much better during their hot streak than what the season stats show. I guess basically I am looking more at recent play for Coppin than the whole body of work for my analysis in this one because that's the team I believe will show up. Of course I could be totally off.


                                  yeah, but when were mt st marys last 5 losses? they've been playing much better of late. each of these teams finished their regular season well before making their conf tourney run.
                                  Comment
                                  • hoopster42
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 02-12-08
                                    • 6099

                                    #18
                                    i'm with you on it mofo and got in early as i thot the line would drop, instead it went up! surprising
                                    Comment
                                    • SchlepRock
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 12-25-07
                                      • 243

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker
                                      I'm on Mt. St. Marys (-7) as well. Not a fan of the total in this one. GL fellas.
                                      Im with you on Mary not sure about the total
                                      Comment
                                      • mofome
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 12-19-07
                                        • 13003

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by hoopster42
                                        i'm with you on it mofo and got in early as i thot the line would drop, instead it went up! surprising

                                        we've gained a point and a half on the total and a half on the game.

                                        Comment
                                        • hoopster42
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 02-12-08
                                          • 6099

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by mofome
                                          we've gained a point and a half on the total and a half on the game.

                                          i have a habit of never fully reading and comprehending, LOL, i am lazy i guess, i am on coppin state plus here, i think theyve got too much momentum as of the past month or so
                                          Comment
                                          • JColli32
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 01-21-08
                                            • 692

                                            #22
                                            i am on coppin state in this game but BOL to u guys
                                            Comment
                                            • mofome
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 12-19-07
                                              • 13003

                                              #23
                                              uh oh, gl hoops and JC

                                              Comment
                                              • OLGC_Slayer
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-28-08
                                                • 2186

                                                #24
                                                I'm on Mount St Marys ML and Under.
                                                Comment
                                                • mofome
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-19-07
                                                  • 13003

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by OLGC_Slayer
                                                  I'm on Mount St Marys ML and Under.


                                                  music to my ears.

                                                  Comment
                                                  • WestsidePete
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 07-19-07
                                                    • 8049

                                                    #26
                                                    I'm staying with Mt St Mary's -7 and teased the under on a play as well...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SchlepRock
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 12-25-07
                                                      • 243

                                                      #27
                                                      Thank You Saint Mary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mofome
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 12-19-07
                                                        • 13003

                                                        #28
                                                        lord, only needed there to be 8 or less in the last 56 seconds.


                                                        Comment
                                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-06-06
                                                          • 71662

                                                          #29
                                                          Thank the refs for the FTs. That disparity from Coppin to STM was ridiculous. Lots of bumps that went called one way and not called the other. I hate officiating like that. Either call em all or none at all. And I am going to be ranting about that damn technical foul for another day or two, bear with me.


                                                          Nice call on the side I suppose Mo. At least someone got some enjoyment out of that game.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • trytrytry
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 03-13-06
                                                            • 23656

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by trytrytry
                                                            like Mt st MArys in this one
                                                            good start to the dance..
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mofome
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 12-19-07
                                                              • 13003

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by trytrytry
                                                              good start to the dance..


                                                              well done TTT


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