Walker Just Told Me We Broke Two Record Tonight

[sharpcat]

I'll just say there was no "sharp" side to this game. If you think because your side won on the very last play of the game that you had the "sharp" side. Then you are telling yourself that to make you feel good.

If your down 2 scores and under 2 minutes in the game. Once you get inside the 20-15, you throw 3 passes to the endzone. If you don't score you kick a field goal and go for an onside kick. Whether it was Fisher's play calling or Collins decision it was bad offensive decisions to try to win the game.

How can you say there was no sharp side to this game when there were books offering -3 and there were books offering +5?

You do realize the value of a point in a game correct?

There were actually 2 sharp sides in this game those who got the Colts a -2.5 made a sharp play and those who got the Titans +4 or better made a sharp play. If you bet the Colts at -3 (-110) or higher you made a square play.

[blackbeSSt]

How can you say there was no sharp side to this game when there were books offering -3 and there were books offering +5?

You do realize the value of a point in a game correct?

There were actually 2 sharp sides in this game those who got the Colts a -2.5 made a sharp play and those who got the Titans +4 or better made a sharp play. If you bet the Colts at -3 (-110) or higher you made a square play.

i think your butt buddy rod would beg to differ. im pretty sure he thinks all the colts bets, no matter the number, were square.

[ouman101]

How can you say there was no sharp side to this game when there were books offering -3 and there were books offering +5? You do realize the value of a point in a game correct? There were actually 2 sharp sides in this game those who got the Colts a -2.5 made a sharp play and those who got the Titans +4 or better made a sharp play. If you bet the Colts at -3 (-110) or higher you made a square play.

So if Vinateri misses that field goal, the Colts stop them (obviously is questionable) and the Colts win by 6, or White doesn't block the ball from Reggie Wayne and they win by 6, Tennessee was still the sharp side, correct?

[pavyracer]

I'm pretty sure the sharps with their sharp money when the game had 4 seconds left and it was 4th down and the Titans were down by 9 points were celebrating like this: "Hey Sharp buddy, look at those squares on the Colts!! They think they will cover. I told you when we placed the $50,000 sharp play on the Titans they will score on 4th down with 4 seconds left and cover."

[Rod1010]

u better be sharp in the nfl. if your not then u get fked by bs backdoor covers all fkin year

[jjgold]

I bought Colts -2 now who really is sharp here??

His name is JJ

[BettingWizard]

a team with 85% of action is SQUARE. end of discussion. Does that mean Tenn was a sharp bet? Maybe at 4 or more.

[oiler]

jj how big of a bonus did you get out of all those lost points or won points if your the book !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

u know what he got ,another dick to put in his left hand.no matter what the game it seems he always comes out to say he won or bought the point to win or tie..i think this idiot is a fraud

[ouman101]

a team with 85% of action is SQUARE. end of discussion. Does that mean Tenn was a sharp bet? Maybe at 4 or more.

Maybe you can answer my question then...If indy wins by 6, was Tennessee at +4 still a "sharp" play?

[BettingWizard]

Maybe you can answer my question then...If indy wins by 6, was Tennessee at +4 still a "sharp" play?

yes. fading 85% action will win in the long run.

[Gemoka]

Who is Jack walkeR?

[sharpcat]

So if Vinateri misses that field goal, the Colts stop them (obviously is questionable) and the Colts win by 6, or White doesn't block the ball from Reggie Wayne and they win by 6, Tennessee was still the sharp side, correct?

Again it all depends on the price you paid for the wager and what line you got it at

If the true most accurate outcome of the game was that at 3 each team had a 50% likelihood of winning the game and knowing that the 3 pushes just shy of 10% of the time if you get line other than 3 without paying too much vig than you made a sharp play because your win probability is higher than your break even % of the price that you paid for the bet.

I could give 2 shits if the Colts won by 100 nobody can predict the outcome of any one game perfectly you have to look from a theoretical perspective and see the game as if it were played 1,000 times under the same conditions would the Colts win by 100 every time? no this is a random occurrence it is more likely that over 1,000 games that the true price of the game would be +/-3.

If you can not understand this concept you really should not be gambling on anything period unless you are comfortable with the fact that you are going to lose 5% on every wager you make. Whether it is poker, blackjack, roulette, or sports gambling is a game of math and if your odds of winning your bet are less than what is required to break even you are going to lose on every wager you make.

[ouman101]

Looks like you have it all figured out. Guess I can blindly book Oregon to cover in the national championship game

[big0mar]

Some people will just never get it!

[sharpcat]

I bought Colts -2 now who really is sharp here??

His name is JJ

Sharp play JJ

You can't win them all but if you continue making sharp bets like this you will win long-term.

[ouman101]

Looks like you have it all figured out. Guess I can blindly book Oregon to cover in the national championship game

This was directed at BettingWizard. Sharpcat, I agree with what you said. I just get fuking tired of after the game all of a sudden everyone and their brother knows the "sharp" side. There is a difference between the sharp side and a sharp bet. I think your explanation describes the latter.

[sharpcat]

This was directed at BettingWizard. Sharpcat, I agree with what you said. I just get fuking tired of after the game all of a sudden everyone and their brother knows the "sharp" side. There is a difference between the sharp side and a sharp bet. I think your explanation describes the latter.

A lot of sharp wagers were placed on the Colts -2.5 also unfortunately they did not win, this is where money management is important.

The guys who bet the Colts at -4/-5 in my opinion made very bad plays and bet into an over inflated line.

And I never entered any thread to brag on this issue I entered Ron's thread because he was taking a beating from colts backers early on and I entered this thread because I hate hearing people complain about games being fixed. The house has no need to fix a game they already have a huge advantage over the player.

[SBR_John]

Even the best sharps in the world miss 45% of the time. If you took an L forget about it and don't chase. Its just one game.

[stealthyburrito]

I bought Colts -2 now who really is sharp here??

His name is JJ

[dwaechte]

yes. fading 85% action will win in the long run.

Doesn't mean that each individual play when you're blindly fading 85% action is +EV.

[BettingWizard]

Doesn't mean that each individual play when you're blindly fading 85% action is +EV.

which is impossbile to determine unless the same 2 teams play at least 100 times. you can only go by the long run.

[jjgold]

I was even afraid to lay -2.5, it was a classic trap game also

[dwaechte]

which is impossbile to determine unless the same 2 teams play at least 100 times. you can only go by the long run.

My point is that there are a lot of ways to identify +EV plays using other capping methods. You're suggesting a basic blind strategy which will obviously include a lot of -EV plays and using the profitability of that strategy to argue against even trying to determine that subset of -EV plays.

[CarpeDime]

I bought Colts -2 now who really is sharp here??

His name is JJ

[jjgold]

What a night it was, phones ringing off hook
SBR praying Tenny covered

[biblos]

Who is Jack Walker?

[daimoshokage]

Who is Jack Walker?

Who is biblos?