Your Attention Please: Just made my largest NFL Wager of 2010

[dwaechte]

Thought I made a valiant effort at avoiding any cockiness or insults in this thread. I just alerted everyone to the fact it would be my biggest play of the year and wanted to share it.

The thread title is unoffensive. My posts were restrained and non confrontational almost to a fault.

I really don't think the play at 40.5 was a bad play. It opened at 44.5 and got pounded down to 41. So I waited a few days until it finally dropped under the Key Number of 41, and locked it in at 40.5.

I lost money on the Arizona/New England game 2 years ago, after beating the Market by 4.5 points. Same thing last year with Titans/Pats, beating the Market by 3.5. I lost both of those Unders and I finally figured out that the Pats don't give a shit what the weather is. They are going to attack, attack and attack and not let up until Brady almost gets injured.

Seemed like everyone forgot that fact. I wrote this total in at 46.5, until I saw the weather, and I adjusted it to 44. So that first drop under 41 to 40.5 felt like a gift. I couldn't believe it got that low. But like I said, limited my play on it just in case it got lower. When it hit 37.5, it went right back to 38. So I grabbed the 37.5 which is where it closed, although some places had 37.

One thing I know for certain is Books must have made a killing on that one, a full TD drop from the opener? Wow.

It isn't directed at everyone. But you see how many posters came in to take shots and talk shit, which I am fine with. However, if you are going to do that, be man enough to come back and admit it was the right call. If it would have lost, there would have been posters out the ass talking much shit, in a thread where I avoided instigation.

Next week's card is looking tight. Only thing I see that I am going to be betting very soon will be the Jets. Going to grab it for half unit at 6 and hope it somehow magically gets pushed to 7 by game time.

A guy can dream, can't he?

Another poster who thinks that saying something enough times will eventually make it true. If that were the case I'd be ******* Jessica Alba by now.


You're an attention whore; deal with it "new JJ" .

[ngates815]

Does your brother post on this site also statnerds?


Cool call on the over, I'd like to congratulate you by giving you some points, how many would be appropriate?

[statnerds]

5% bankroll on the game. That's like a normal bet for my square ass. Nice call....so HOW MUCH did you actually bank on that?

Here is something else that sets me apart from 99% of posters. I am honest. I have no reason to lie or to bullshit. Not trying to insult but think it is safe to say. Take a sample of posts and see.

My BR is between $7K and $8K.

And by BR I mean money I can afford to lose, although I would prefer not to. Money that is not needed for mortgage or food or bills or whatever other bullshit we pay everyday.

Took a little under 4 years to build it, but seeing as how it started with $1,200 and no reloads, think 500% return is pretty good.

And now I hopefully have a line on a local that doesn't update lines after getting them earlier in the day.

[Chuck Sims]

SD/KC Over 46.5 never had a chance.

[statnerds]

SD/KC Over 46.5 never had a chance.

I almost started this with an insult. But since I am a kinder, gentler man now, I refrain.

I can only point out that I stated in the opening post of this thread that I placed that wager on Monday. That Total was terrible. So I placed the bet Monday, Cassel had his operation on Wednesday. I modeled the Chargers to get 400+ yards in offense and hit 30 points. That happened. Had Cassel played, well, think you draw some conclusions on your own. And had Cassel played, that Total would have closed at 48 or higher.

But I will not let an outlier effect my approach.

Jumped on the Jets +6.5 on Monday, go back a few posts to find it, and here we are getting news today that Polumalu is out.

So I guess it evens out in the end.

Guess it is time to add a ML play on the Jets as well.

[statnerds]

KC Ov 41.5

Got that one at Carib

[statnerds]

That would bring this thread to a 5-0 Closing.

[milwaukee mike]

please explain how you went 5-0 in this thread

i have read every one of your posts at least twice and i don't see any clear picks made other than 2 overs??

[statnerds]

please explain how you went 5-0 in this thread

i have read every one of your posts at least twice and i don't see any clear picks made other than 2 overs??

Sorry, you are correct, it is only 4-0. I was mistakenly counting the Car TT Un 10.5 from Thursday Night. Thought I put it in here, but it was actually right here. You can check it if you would like, but the fact that has 30 views and 0 replies should tell you it was a winner.

Post # 68:

"Next week's card is looking tight. Only thing I see that I am going to be betting very soon will be the Jets. Going to grab it for half unit at 6 and hope it somehow magically gets pushed to 7 by game time."

Post #75

I come back in again to back the Jets with the points and then add the ML play as well.

But everything we are discussing is moot. I will never post an NFL or NCAAF play on SBR again. Which sucks cause my Bowl Season thread is 3-2 to start with Ari Ov 65.5 pending. But that thread is officially closed as of


wait for it



wait for it



wait for it


now!!!

Anyhoo, going to go place about 12 or 13 wagers on tonight's card, give my son a bath, get his jammies on, watch some TV with him, put him to bed, hang out with my wife, go to bed, wake-up and see how much $$$ I made.

I apologize for giving up on this board.

Have a great night and GL with all of your plays.