If you take the Colts you are probably a moron

**MBENZ** · 12-09-10, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by big0mar

The line was at 2 or 2.5 in most places. It will end at 4.

Think about it

Not today,what line service do you use?It has been at 3 since things leveled out,openers don't mean shit until money starts coming in.Not trying to argue but common sense says if 91% are betting Indy and there is minimal movement the smallbucks are on Indy and the major dollars are on the Titans.We'll see,that's why they play em.

**big0mar** · 12-09-10, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by MBENZ

Not today,what line service do you use?It has been at 3 since things leveled out,openers don't mean shit until money starts coming in.Not trying to argue but common sense says if 91% are betting Indy and there is minimal movement the smallbucks are on Indy and the major dollars are on the Titans.We'll see,that's why they play em.

91% of how much?

What does the volume look like now, compared to what it will look like at closing? What will the closing line be?

I'm not saying IND is the right side, or TEN is the right side

**rfr3sh** · 12-09-10, 03:52 PM

i see 87% of 38000 + bets

**big0mar** · 12-09-10, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by rfr3sh

i see 87% of 38000 + bets

Once the line closes, what do you think the % of people on IND will have a number > 3?

**rfr3sh** · 12-09-10, 03:56 PM

Majority of people since its been 3 since the 7th @ 11 am

**MBENZ** · 12-09-10, 04:04 PM

S.O. is still hanging 91%.Pinny still stuck on 3-22.There was a small window at 9:30 where it came in at 82% and Pinny went to 3-08.This should be interesting since it's the only game in town tonight.

**sideloaded** · 12-09-10, 04:08 PM

I'm surprised OP hasn't threatened anyone yet. He's a very angry internet person.

**crustyme** · 12-09-10, 04:24 PM

titans ml

**vyomguy** · 12-09-10, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Line moved up to Colts -3 (-118) last night and sharp action nailed it back down to -3 (-108). 90% action on the Colts and pinnacle still refuses to move off of the 3 while most square shops have moved to 3.5/4. Pinnacle has taking their stance and are leaning on the Titans, rec books are hanging a highly overpriced -3.5 line and still taking all kinds of square action still and are loving life. I expect game time sharp action to run the price back down before kick off and pinnacle will never move off the 3 and will gladly continue to take all of the square action on the Colts -3. Value is in Tennessee

3 is a key number and books are hesitant to move from that number in all weeks. Usually most of the NFL lines open at 3...but colts opened at -2.5 and sharps pounded it immediately. Now the sharps are just waiting until it goes to -3.5 or -4 and then they will take titans. This kind of line movement doesn't happen often in NFL..i.e from -2.5 to -3.5....books will get buried if they do this...especially the sharp books which take sharp action. Hence, Pinnacle, Greek and Bookmaker havent moved off 3.

**BernardMadoff** · 12-09-10, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Line moved up to Colts -3 (-118) last night and sharp action nailed it back down to -3 (-108).

90% action on the Colts and pinnacle still refuses to move off of the 3 while most square shops have moved to 3.5/4.

Pinnacle has taking their stance and are leaning on the Titans, rec books are hanging a highly overpriced -3.5 line and still taking all kinds of square action still and are loving life.

I expect game time sharp action to run the price back down before kick off and pinnacle will never move off the 3 and will gladly continue to take all of the square action on the Colts -3.

Value is in Tennessee

Square shops? Who would that be.

**HauntingTheHoly** · 12-09-10, 06:09 PM

+4 -110 on Bodog, I thought this was the squarest shop on the internets? Damnit to hell. I'll keep waiting, I guess.

**k22t** · 12-09-10, 06:16 PM

My local site has Colts -4, going to wait and see if it goes down, if not I'm jumping on Colts -3 -140

**sharpcat** · 12-09-10, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by vyomguy

3 is a key number and books are hesitant to move from that number in all weeks. Usually most of the NFL lines open at 3...but colts opened at -2.5 and sharps pounded it immediately. Now the sharps are just waiting until it goes to -3.5 or -4 and then they will take titans. This kind of line movement doesn't happen often in NFL..i.e from -2.5 to -3.5....books will get buried if they do this...especially the sharp books which take sharp action. Hence, Pinnacle, Greek and Bookmaker havent moved off 3.

Why would Pinnacle move the line to -3.5???

A half point off the 3 is worth .22 cents and the highest the line has gotten to is -3 (-122) and that only lasted 3 minutes until sharp action started coming in on tennessee and ran it back down to -3 (-118) in an hour.

Pinnacle has not moved to 3.5 because the "NO-VIG" price has never exceeded +/-3 (+/-117) when it would need to have a "NO-VIG" price of (+/-122) in order to justify moving the line to 3.5.

Pinnacle would rather get buried by the few who are fortunate enough to have bet before the line moved who may attempt a middle than they would to just sit back a let syndicate play continue to pound them on their weak number.

**Nomocino** · 12-09-10, 06:27 PM

Tease the Colts and the over and start counting your cash

**paco** · 12-09-10, 06:27 PM

--

. --

**HauntingTheHoly** · 12-09-10, 06:39 PM

If you're trying to middle, that means the Colts gotta win by a FG - that's the only outcome where you'll make money, right? Is that really a good idea? I'm probably missing something since I've never had a chance to try a middle, but this one seems quite narrow.

**Let's Bet** · 12-09-10, 06:40 PM

Go colts

**DwightShrute** · 12-09-10, 06:44 PM

good luck.

**sideloaded** · 12-09-10, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by Nomocino

Tease the Colts and the over and start counting your cash

Jesus people are dumb. No wonder books are so rich.

**TonyP** · 12-09-10, 06:51 PM

Im on the under 45

**manicart** · 12-09-10, 06:52 PM

The fact that you have absolutely no backup forbid statement I'm doubling
My bet on colts gl

**uhuhahah** · 12-09-10, 06:52 PM

Manning will have 4 intercepts tonight...

**beermankirk** · 12-09-10, 07:00 PM

Titans +5 -110 on sports interaction, if you can bet there.

**PUDS** · 12-09-10, 07:02 PM

line at-5 at SIA right now...

**lyon804** · 12-09-10, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by vyomguy

3 is a key number and books are hesitant to move from that number in all weeks. Usually most of the NFL lines open at 3...but colts opened at -2.5 and sharps pounded it immediately. Now the sharps are just waiting until it goes to -3.5 or -4 and then they will take titans. This kind of line movement doesn't happen often in NFL..i.e from -2.5 to -3.5....books will get buried if they do this...especially the sharp books which take sharp action. Hence, Pinnacle, Greek and Bookmaker havent moved off 3.

Originally posted by sharpcat

Why would Pinnacle move the line to -3.5???

A half point off the 3 is worth .22 cents and the highest the line has gotten to is -3 (-122) and that only lasted 3 minutes until sharp action started coming in on tennessee and ran it back down to -3 (-118) in an hour.

Pinnacle has not moved to 3.5 because the "NO-VIG" price has never exceeded +/-3 (+/-117) when it would need to have a "NO-VIG" price of (+/-122) in order to justify moving the line to 3.5.

Pinnacle would rather get buried by the few who are fortunate enough to have bet before the line moved who may attempt a middle than they would to just sit back a let syndicate play continue to pound them on their weak number.

Both of you are pretty sharp and make valid arguments. Fortunately, I am not betting this game so it's good shits n giggles for me.

**makaveli66** · 12-09-10, 07:39 PM

I wouldn't bet this game period. Too unpredictable. Manning's been playing like shit, therefor so have the Colts. Titans can win this game but I don't know if they want it enough.

**AL1322** · 12-09-10, 07:53 PM

take tennessee to the bank tonight...27-24

**Capybara** · 12-09-10, 08:04 PM

So what are the moron-odds exactly then if I'm a Colts backer, 75%? 85%? You've indicated it is not definite. I've got a shot not to be a moron.

**EmpireMaker** · 12-09-10, 08:11 PM

Tennesee hasn't scored an offenive TD in 13 quarters, Kerry Collins at the helm again tonight. How do they outscore the Colts even if Manning throws 2 or 3 picks, which I don't believe he will ????

**balls2wall** · 12-09-10, 08:21 PM

I am on the Colts for 3 units. If I win I am not a genius and if I lose I am not a moron.

If the Titans win or lose the OP looks like a prick. If they lose he looks like a prick and a moron.

BOL Colts backers

**Rollins08** · 12-09-10, 08:46 PM

I know one thing, never call anybody a moron. Gambling is almost always a coin flip. The people that think they're the smartest lose just like everybody else. 99% of big time gamblers will regret it and struggle to end it.

**illfuuptn** · 12-09-10, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

So what are the moron-odds exactly then if I'm a Colts backer, 75%? 85%? You've indicated it is not definite. I've got a shot not to be a moron.

If you bet on the Colts, you are a moron win or lose. Your odds of winning? Probably about 45%

**sideloaded** · 12-09-10, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by illfuuptn

If you bet on the Colts, you are a moron win or lose. Your odds of winning? Probably about 45%

How shitty is your real life? I ask because to compensate for it you jump on a internet forum and act like the biggest douche to everyone to forget what a real loser you are.

**falconticket** · 12-09-10, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

How shitty is your real life that to compensate you jump on a internet forum and act like the biggest douche to everyone to forget what a real loser you are.

So true

**illfuuptn** · 12-09-10, 09:07 PM

^^^^^^^Check the private zone