Instinctive Pro Gambling...

[willyback]

I'm not talking about percentages, mathematical calculations, middling, correlated parlays, etc. I want to know who makes money off sports betting: watching sports, loving the game, instinctively knowing who's going to win a particular match-up (on a regular basis).

[Wyndham]

I guess I could say "Me," but I'm not a professional gambler and I do include some basic capping and statistical information in my picks. However, for the most part, I bet based on my opinion of the outcome; my "hunches." For instance, tonight I look at the Detroit-Denver game and without even looking at the numbers, I think "over" because Denver games, in Denver, continue to sail over the totals, and it's happening against every team, good or bad offensively. The fact that it's a low total only strengthens my opinion: I'd be on the over in this game if it was 210 or more, nevermind 205.

[babaoriley]

Great question willy. I'd actually say that my "instinctive bets" are probably better than my capped bets in most cases. That said, betting on instinct will eventually lead to a bad case of gambling hubris after a good streak, and next thing you know, you're on a losing streak that erases your profits.