#1 Memphis -6 vs #2 Tennessee: 0/u 158

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  • mofome
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-19-07
    • 13003

    #1
    #1 Memphis -6 vs #2 Tennessee: 0/u 158
    #1 Memphis -6 vs #2 Tennessee: 0/u 158
    9:0pm
    The FedEx Forum
    ESPN


    Memphis: (RPI #2, Sagarin #1)
    26-0
    13-11-2 ATS
    15-0 Home
    14-12 0/u
    SOS 21
    vs top 50 (6-0)



    Tennessee (RPI 1#, Sagarin #7)
    24-2
    13-9 ATS
    7-1 Road
    10-12 0/u
    SOS 2
    vs top 50 (9-1)



    Well here we have it, a game that has all the makings of a classic. We've got two teams from the same state, a budding rivalry between the coaches and programs, and the classic #21 vs #2 showdown. This line opened at 6 and has moved to 5.5 at a lot of places despite 65% of the public selecting the vols to cover according to wagerline.com. This game will feature two of the most athletically gifted teams in the nation and a couple of the more flamboyant coaches.

    When you think about the Memphis Tigers you think, up tempo, lots of speed, lots of power, and relentless activity on both sides of the court. Memphis features nine players that get 15 plus minutes a game led by guard Derrick Rose and Detroit product Chris Douglas-Roberts. These two present a very physical back court and make for one of the best rebounding guard tandems in the nation. Up front the Tigers will bang you around with a couple 6-9 forwards in Robert Dozier and Joey Dorsey; each of whom pull 7 or more off the glass a night.

    The Vols will bring much of the same kind of speed, but they aren't quite as physical. Tennessee is led by pre-season All-American Chris Lofton and All_SEC hopeful JaJuan Smith. Each of these guards have shown the ability to knock down the 3 and carry the team offensively for long stretches. Down low the vols will spread their minutes around a bit more. Duke Crews is coming back into form and hes a nasty rebounder when hes in. Crews is coming off a heart ailment and was clearled to play a couple weeks back. His addition gives Tennessee some much needed toughness inside along with Wayne Chism, Tyler Smith, and Brian Williams. The Vols biggest advantage tonight will be their dept, they have 12 players averaging over 10 and a half minutes per outing. That is something you won't see often. They may need to use up a lot of fouls vs a Memphis squad that is superior on the glass, but really struggles from the line.

    The Key to this game will likely be how well Memphis is able to defend the 3 ball. The Tigers are 13th in the nation in defending the 3 (30%), but they're facing perhaps the nations best shooter in Chris Lofton, who has hit 48% over his last ten games in which hes managed 18.6 points per. When Lofton is covered tightly, Howell and JaJuan Smith will be looked on to knock down some a few from behind the arc. Tennesse isn't the best half court offense, but when they can stretch you with the long ball, it opens up more inside for guys like Crews, Chism, and Williams. The most complete player on the Tennessee roster is 6-7 forward Tyler Smith who transfered in from Iowa. Smith is not only a great finisher, but he is also a very good rebounder and perhaps the teams best passer. He'll be instrumental to the Vols success if they're not knocking down their jumpers early.

    Memphis brings the complete package to the court. They're averaging over 80 points a contest and they rank 4th in the nation in FG percentage defense. If that wasn't enough, they're also fourth in the country in rebounding margin. The one weakness this team truly has is their inability to knock down FTs, which is something Bruce Pearl seemed to discredit,
    "The toughest thing to guard is dribble penetration. It's difficult-to-impossible to keep those guys out of the line. The other thing with that is that they get to the foul line. People have made a big deal about the fact that Memphis doesn't shoot free throws very well, but they go there so often that they still be able to win games,"
    In my eyes, if they can hit 70% or better from the charity stripe, there isn't a team in the country thats likely to keep pace with the Tigers at home.

    Last year these two met in Knoxville and the unranked vols dominated the then #16 Memphis Tigers. All week the home team has been talking about revenge while the vols are saying that no one is giving them a chance, even though most experts seem to be evenly divided on this one. Both teams are deep, much improved from a season ago, and looking to solidify themselves as #1 seeds in the Tourney. Earlier in the year the Volunteers were a pretty poor rebounding team, but they've out rebounded their opponents in each of their last 8 games. I think Tennessee has the ability to score more points in a hurry, but you just can't like the way they've played on the road this year even with a 7-1 record. That being said, JP Prince, Ramar Smith, and Duke Crews have each been improving and the Vols have a couple sr leaders in their back court that have played in plenty of big games in their careers. My feeling is that Tennessee is too talented a team to give 6 points to no matter where they're playing. This time it just so happens that they're playing the #1 team in the land only a few hours from home. The atmosphere will be intense and the players will be on the main stage trying to prove that they're team is the best in the nation. Its my feeling that the passion will be seen on the defensive side of the ball and teams will struggle from the line as always.

    i like this game to go under 158
    i like the vols to cover the 6
  • gummo
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-04-06
    • 6297

    #2
    Good luck. I like Tennessee also.
    Comment
    • raiders72002
      SBR MVP
      • 03-06-07
      • 3368

      #3
      Good stuff mo. Tenn
      Comment
      • Louisvillekid1
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-17-07
        • 52143

        #4
        Nice write as always. Gl and Im taking the points as well.
        Comment
        • diogee
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-11-08
          • 19477

          #5
          Thanks for a another great write-up mofo
          Comment
          • mr. leisure
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-29-08
            • 17507

            #6
            I like the under Too,good luck on the vols


            Comment
            • mofome
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 12-19-07
              • 13003

              #7
              thanks guys, im not sure how well written this ****er is, i was up still at 8am from the previous night, but i see the line has moevd to 7 and the under is 157 at the couple places i checked.

              gl tonight guys.
              Comment
              • jjgold
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 07-20-05
                • 388179

                #8
                If I can get +7.5 I will play Tenny
                Comment
                • mofome
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 12-19-07
                  • 13003

                  #9
                  Originally posted by jjgold
                  If I can get +7.5 I will play Tenny


                  vols and the u baby

                  Comment
                  • hoopster42
                    Restricted User
                    • 02-12-08
                    • 6099

                    #10
                    this might be one to sit back and watch stress free
                    Comment
                    • mofome
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 12-19-07
                      • 13003

                      #11
                      Originally posted by hoopster42
                      this might be one to sit back and watch stress free


                      the fact that i have 2 picks in this one will likely make it so that i cant watch a minute of it.

                      Comment
                      • chandler1981
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 11-18-07
                        • 422

                        #12
                        Tennessee blasted Memphis 76-58 as a one-point home underdog last year, and the ‘dog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this instate rivalry.

                        Tenn is 3-0 ATS and SU as dogs this yr!
                        Comment
                        • mofome
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 12-19-07
                          • 13003

                          #13
                          Originally posted by chandler1981
                          Tennessee blasted Memphis 76-58 as a one-point home underdog last year, and the ‘dog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this instate rivalry.

                          Tenn is 3-0 ATS and SU as dogs this yr!


                          nice info chandler, also nice to see you on!

                          Comment
                          • chandler1981
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 11-18-07
                            • 422

                            #14
                            Originally posted by mofome
                            nice info chandler, also nice to see you on!

                            Thanks man. Good to see you too. This place is getting back its fire; the reason I joined. Lkid1 has done well getting the NCAA conf threads going. Diogee has some good writeups, along with Lkid1, and yours are great too man. Im writing a few for the SEC and looks like I may have to do a few for the ACC. Im suprised noobody has taken on the ACC yet. Duke and UNC are on TV every game!

                            Keep em comming Mo. You're da man!
                            Comment
                            • mofome
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 12-19-07
                              • 13003

                              #15
                              Originally posted by chandler1981
                              Thanks man. Good to see you too. This place is getting back its fire; the reason I joined. Lkid1 has done well getting the NCAA conf threads going. Diogee has some good writeups, along with Lkid1, and yours are great too man. Im writing a few for the SEC and looks like I may have to do a few for the ACC. Im suprised noobody has taken on the ACC yet. Duke and UNC are on TV every game!

                              Keep em comming Mo. You're da man!


                              lk does a great job, dio does great work, ** does the pod and has tennis going, there is a lot of great stuff going on right now. i havent seen you as much recently, but the board is obviously better when you're around. bol to you this weekend bud
                              Comment
                              • Quebb Diesel
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-26-08
                                • 3045

                                #16
                                mofo quit betting w/ your heart...ha ha j/k i might hop up on it too...
                                Comment
                                • MoneySportsGuy
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-09-07
                                  • 4891

                                  #17
                                  nice write up Mofo, but I might be the the first one to post that I am still leaning towards Memphis, see what a little bit more research will do to me
                                  Comment
                                  • mofome
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 12-19-07
                                    • 13003

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Quebb Diesel
                                    mofo quit betting w/ your heart...ha ha j/k i might hop up on it too...


                                    haha i was actually trying to lean towards memphis, its just hard to think clearly with this one. basically, i think giving either of these teams 6, at full strength, makes the other side the better value.
                                    gl tonight QD!
                                    Comment
                                    • mofome
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 12-19-07
                                      • 13003

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by MoneySportsGuy
                                      nice write up Mofo, but I might be the the first one to post that I am still leaning towards Memphis, see what a little bit more research will do to me


                                      lines moved from 7 to mostly 6s right now. you can get 6.5s and 5.5s
                                      Comment
                                      • Wrigley
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 12-28-07
                                        • 7268

                                        #20
                                        Good luck mo and nice write up
                                        Comment
                                        • McRich
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 10-26-07
                                          • 961

                                          #21
                                          Come on Memphis!!! I got them on -5.5.
                                          Comment
                                          • BGS 9.5
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-10-08
                                            • 4628

                                            #22
                                            Good luck Mo, I will be on your Vols as well
                                            Comment
                                            • Cannon
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 01-03-08
                                              • 3329

                                              #23
                                              Tenn for me.
                                              Comment
                                              • MoneySportsGuy
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-09-07
                                                • 4891

                                                #24
                                                whoo hoo we got another person on Memphis, way to pick them McRich

                                                I am leaning on them as well although this account is getting low at my one book so have to go easy on this if other games and parlays dont hit
                                                Comment
                                                • MoneySportsGuy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-09-07
                                                  • 4891

                                                  #25
                                                  What do you guys think of over/under in this? I was leaning towards under, but cant you just see this game going to OT. I can really see like 75-75 and then OT and Tenn barely covers with 85-80 Memphis.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • William Lee
                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                    • 02-11-08
                                                    • 85

                                                    #26
                                                    Guys many are being fooled here. This game will be played in the 90's. Total is set to low. Total should be set at 167-169 and will still go OVER the #. Look at these trends. EVERY ONE POINTS TO A UNDER GAME. This means is OVER TIME!!!

                                                    Tennessee
                                                    Under is 6-1 in Volunteers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
                                                    Under is 6-1 in Volunteers last 7 Saturday games.
                                                    Under is 6-1 in Volunteers last 7 road games.
                                                    Under is 4-1 in Volunteers last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
                                                    Under is 9-3 in Volunteers last 12 games following a ATS win.
                                                    Under is 13-6 in Volunteers last 19 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.


                                                    Memphis
                                                    Under is 10-1 in Tigers last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
                                                    Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
                                                    Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games following a ATS win.
                                                    Under is 13-3 in Tigers last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
                                                    Under is 19-7 in Tigers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
                                                    Under is 8-3 in Tigers last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
                                                    Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.


                                                    Head to HeadUnderdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.


                                                    William Lee
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MoneySportsGuy
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-09-07
                                                      • 4891

                                                      #27
                                                      William Lee,

                                                      How do you see this into the 90s without OT? Or are you assuming that is a strong possability as well?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • William Lee
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 02-11-08
                                                        • 85

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by MoneySportsGuy
                                                        William Lee,

                                                        How do you see this into the 90s without OT? Or are you assuming that is a strong possability as well?
                                                        I see this as a run a gun game throughout. Shotclock will not reach 15 in any possession. I see it in the 90's without overtime. Books will clean up on the total in this game as mostly under bettors in this matchup. I know 2 locals here that just hedged off 15 dimes on the under towards NYC because they are getting buried in UNDER action. They still kept about 2/3 of all action on the under. These guys unload when it gets to heavy to their main office in the city.

                                                        William Lee
                                                        Comment
                                                        • andyman009
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 02-21-08
                                                          • 662

                                                          #29
                                                          its under
                                                          Comment
                                                          • William Lee
                                                            SBR Hustler
                                                            • 02-11-08
                                                            • 85

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by andyman009
                                                            its under

                                                            Good luck pal to all under players in this game. You might be sweating it out after a 90 + point first half though.

                                                            William Lee
                                                            Comment
                                                            • andyman009
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 02-21-08
                                                              • 662

                                                              #31
                                                              i got tenn +9...what u guys think
                                                              Comment
                                                              • flyingillini
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-06-06
                                                                • 41219

                                                                #32
                                                                I think tennessee pulls the win out.
                                                                המוסד‎
                                                                המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                                                                Comment
                                                                • andrewaxia
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 02-11-08
                                                                  • 1419

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Just put 25 units on Tennesse +6.5 - Didn't want to wait too long as I'm worried the line will go down as gametime reaches in. Have 300 units on the ML for NC Wilmington and they win and the game finishes before the Tenn game, I might throw some more cash on Tenn
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 5 star bomb
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 10-12-07
                                                                    • 5370

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by andrewaxia
                                                                    Just put 25 units on Tennesse +6.5 - Didn't want to wait too long as I'm worried the line will go down as gametime reaches in. Have 300 units on the ML for NC Wilmington and they win and the game finishes before the Tenn game, I might throw some more cash on Tenn

                                                                    300 units? What are you playing with monopoly money?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Illusion
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 08-09-05
                                                                      • 25166

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I went ahead and played the over for a unit. Good luck tonight everybody.
                                                                      Comment
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