Bet I made with my friend...need your thoughts

[triqy]

Last night we were watching the MNF game when a buddy of mine started going off on the Texans and how they will be trash this year. Me, being the Texans fan that I am, defended the team all the way to the end. This is when he gives me an offer I could not refuse....

Basically he tells me the Colts will end up with the better record then the Texans this year ( which quite possibly can happen) and wants to bet me on it straight up...I told him he was giving me horrible odds and I would never touch it....Thats when I told him that if the Colts have the better record I would pay him $500, but if for any reason the Texans come out and have the same or better record then the Colts he has to pay me 10-1 odds on that, meaning $5,000. He was estatic to take the bet and I couldnt refuse the odds so we shook....

1) Am I getting good odds on this wager
2) Do I have a shot to win it?

Thanks guys

[SCRAGGS]

NO.

[triqy]

When the season started the Texans were getting 7/2 and even 3/1 odds on winning the Afc south in Vegas and online sportsbooks. If I got 10-1 odds with the Texans one game behind the Colts, even if it is the Colts, i think there is good value. Never know what can happen in the NFL.

Peyton is one tough SOB though, the guy never gets hurt and knows how to take a sack better than any Qb in the league.

[lyon804]

Will you win it? Probably not, but odds wise you made the smart bet and he made the dumb bet. Manning could get injured tommorow falling down his stairs and not QB again this season and the Colts would be done.

[DaProfessor23]

great odds , worth a shot . i would take that bet in a second . despite the fact you probly wont win it .

[excel]

Risking 5000$ to win 500$ sounds like a brock landers bet.

[triqy]

great odds , worth a shot . i would take that bet in a second . despite the fact you probly wont win it .

Exactly what I was thinking last night. I couldnt pass up on the odds. You never know what may happen

[opie1988]

No question. Your friend isn't very smart. Good thing for you. Good Luck!

[Ninersnut]

I thought Texans fans/backers would have learned their lesson last night. Good value bet but no way that cashes for you. Peyton is probably the least hit QB in the league. Only way he gets hurt is if Eli sneezes while blowing him.

[milwaukee mike]

houston has 4 home games, 5 road
indy has 5 home games, 4 road

colts at 5-2 probably go 11-5 or so
houston at 4-3 probably goes 9-7 or so

that's certainly close enough to get 10-1 odds on a tie/win with 9 games remaining. if a tie was a loss instead of a win then you're probably getting about the right odds. winning on a tie, one game down with a slightly worse team, simple educated guess i think should be 4-1.

better question is if the "friend" would actually pay you the 5k...

[Landscaper]

U just lost 500

[lordswing]

is your friend good for $5K? better confirm that wasn't drunk talk, get that shit in writing

[triqy]

Yeah hes good for it, we were at a bar watching the game but we had 4 friends there in which 2 of them got the bet on video

[milwaukee mike]

nothing like videotaping illegal activity! (unless you live in nevada)
legally, in every state except nevada, an illegal wager like that is non-binding even if you have it on video

[triqy]

Hahaha, Mil. Mike he's been a friend for over 10 years and we've done this before...I know he's got the money and he called me last night just to reconfirm. Im betting on variables here with the biggest one being the health of Peyton Manning.

[philswin]

Good odds find another dumb friend to hedge it with take the Colts and give him 5 -1.

[triqy]

The colts lose....but so do the defenseless Texans. Opportunity lost! Would have been tied in the standings. Our defense is complete garbage and our first round pick Kareem Jackson is even worse. Guy needs Still be benched.

[triqy]

Needs to be benched.

[dwaechte]

Hedge this now.