I was going to wait till Saturday to write this, but the line is moving against me so I better say what I've got to say. You've probably heard all week that they are going to crack down on defensive players hitting the guys on offense to "hard" by suspending them. Do I agree with this plan of attack by the NFL? Who gives a shit... All we should care about is what this will do to the game from a gamblers perspective.. SCORING IS GOING TO GO UP!!! And what better total to attack then the lowest one on the board this week, when all defensive players will be pretty much feeling out just how rough they can be...this can only help the offenses along with the receivers state of mind..
Players like the 49ers Ted Ginn Jr., who is pretty much just a return specialist, all of a sudden become a weapon again. Now guys like him will be able to run crossing routes and deep-ins when they were pretty much evicted from the middle of the field by hard hitting DB's until now. Their two best receivers (WR M.Crabtree & TE V.Davis) already give defenses fits over the middle, good luck trying to stop them now....
How are you going to stop guys like WR Steve Smith and RB D.Williams if you cant hit them? The only thing that stops small, quick players like this is the fear of getting lit up..What makes Steve Smith so great is that he is one of few fukkin crazy and tough enough to go over the middle, now most WR's will look to roam the middle just like him. Quarterbacks will no longer have to worry about hanging their guys out to dry by leading them into a defender. This new "rule change" is going to affect scoring, it has to.. Ask yourself this... Imagine you were a linebacker, and a receiver was about to catch a ball at the sticks.... You could lay him out and make his team punt but risk losing a weeks pay OR you can just let him make the catch, tackle him with beautiful technique, let him get the first down and make it rain later that night at the club....
Why the Panthers should score
The Niners struggle to stop speed, Patrick Willis is a great middle linebacker.. If you have a running back like M.Bush (Raiders) or M.Turner (Falcons) forget about 100 yards vs. San Francisco. These bigger, power backs are like fly's to the venus fly trap that is P.Willis... This is one of the main reasons the Raiders and Falcons are the only 2 teams that didn't score at least 25 points against them.
Now if you have a quicker running back with big play potential, you are going to give the Niners problems. J.Charles and T.Jones torched the Niners for almost 200 yards on the ground with big plays. D.Williams is going to be a match-up nightmare for Willis and the Niners D..
Matt Moore will be back as the Panthers starting QB, before you lose faith in this Over, remember that this guy lead these guys to 4 wins down the stretch last year. And if you look at the schedule they have played (some good defensive teams) thus far, along with the injuries they have had, you will start to understand why they have struggled. With a healthier offense that will give the niners matchup problems and their best QB under center, look for the Panthers to be the 5th team to score 20+ against this Niners Defense..
Why the Niners will score
My Play of the week was going to initially be the Niners -3. I decided to pass because of the reasons I listed above, but I still love the Niners offense this week. The Panthers are near the bottom when it comes to stoping the run so they are going to have to bring help to slow down F.Gore. This is going to open up big plays for 2 of the best young receivers in football, M.Crabtree and TE V.Davis.
Now for the main reason this game goes over... You might see the best game of Alex Smith's career this week. I stumbled across his press conference the other day and this guy had the look. I cant really explain it, he seemed like a cornered animal that would do anything to survive. Lets face it, one more bad game and this guy may never start an NFL game again... Most of you would say this only makes it more likely this guy chokes, the guy I saw on TV the other day isn't going to choke. Maybe the clean cut, pussy boy from couple years ago would... but this isn't the same Alex Smith..He had a swagger about him during this press conference, the beard he was rocking just sealed the deal.. Remember when Singletary punked out V.Davis and turned him into a pro bowler and a team captain? Well he has challenged his QB two weeks in a row and both times he has responded... I'm pretty sure Coach Singletary has found the buttons to turn the one time bust into a solid NFL QB.. His first of many impressive outings starts this week...
The weather will be nice...
Strength of Play Rating 7/10
Niners/Panthers Over 35.5
King
Players like the 49ers Ted Ginn Jr., who is pretty much just a return specialist, all of a sudden become a weapon again. Now guys like him will be able to run crossing routes and deep-ins when they were pretty much evicted from the middle of the field by hard hitting DB's until now. Their two best receivers (WR M.Crabtree & TE V.Davis) already give defenses fits over the middle, good luck trying to stop them now....
How are you going to stop guys like WR Steve Smith and RB D.Williams if you cant hit them? The only thing that stops small, quick players like this is the fear of getting lit up..What makes Steve Smith so great is that he is one of few fukkin crazy and tough enough to go over the middle, now most WR's will look to roam the middle just like him. Quarterbacks will no longer have to worry about hanging their guys out to dry by leading them into a defender. This new "rule change" is going to affect scoring, it has to.. Ask yourself this... Imagine you were a linebacker, and a receiver was about to catch a ball at the sticks.... You could lay him out and make his team punt but risk losing a weeks pay OR you can just let him make the catch, tackle him with beautiful technique, let him get the first down and make it rain later that night at the club....
Why the Panthers should score
The Niners struggle to stop speed, Patrick Willis is a great middle linebacker.. If you have a running back like M.Bush (Raiders) or M.Turner (Falcons) forget about 100 yards vs. San Francisco. These bigger, power backs are like fly's to the venus fly trap that is P.Willis... This is one of the main reasons the Raiders and Falcons are the only 2 teams that didn't score at least 25 points against them.
Now if you have a quicker running back with big play potential, you are going to give the Niners problems. J.Charles and T.Jones torched the Niners for almost 200 yards on the ground with big plays. D.Williams is going to be a match-up nightmare for Willis and the Niners D..
Matt Moore will be back as the Panthers starting QB, before you lose faith in this Over, remember that this guy lead these guys to 4 wins down the stretch last year. And if you look at the schedule they have played (some good defensive teams) thus far, along with the injuries they have had, you will start to understand why they have struggled. With a healthier offense that will give the niners matchup problems and their best QB under center, look for the Panthers to be the 5th team to score 20+ against this Niners Defense..
Why the Niners will score
My Play of the week was going to initially be the Niners -3. I decided to pass because of the reasons I listed above, but I still love the Niners offense this week. The Panthers are near the bottom when it comes to stoping the run so they are going to have to bring help to slow down F.Gore. This is going to open up big plays for 2 of the best young receivers in football, M.Crabtree and TE V.Davis.
Now for the main reason this game goes over... You might see the best game of Alex Smith's career this week. I stumbled across his press conference the other day and this guy had the look. I cant really explain it, he seemed like a cornered animal that would do anything to survive. Lets face it, one more bad game and this guy may never start an NFL game again... Most of you would say this only makes it more likely this guy chokes, the guy I saw on TV the other day isn't going to choke. Maybe the clean cut, pussy boy from couple years ago would... but this isn't the same Alex Smith..He had a swagger about him during this press conference, the beard he was rocking just sealed the deal.. Remember when Singletary punked out V.Davis and turned him into a pro bowler and a team captain? Well he has challenged his QB two weeks in a row and both times he has responded... I'm pretty sure Coach Singletary has found the buttons to turn the one time bust into a solid NFL QB.. His first of many impressive outings starts this week...
The weather will be nice...
Strength of Play Rating 7/10
Niners/Panthers Over 35.5
King
