NFL is too unpredictable right now!!!!!!

Morality · 10-12-10, 01:42 AM

when was the NFL predictable? wouldn't everyone be UP then?

CorkyThatcher · 10-12-10, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by Morality

when was the NFL predictable? wouldn't everyone be UP then?

did you watch the oakland and cincy games?

Fleeben · 10-12-10, 01:56 AM

Are you surprised at the result? Tampa is good enough to win some games and Cincy is just weak. Oakland always plays the bolts tough.

Ace_of_Spades · 10-12-10, 01:56 AM

I guess, take the dogs or die.

bobbyk1133 · 10-12-10, 02:08 AM

Originally posted by CorkyThatcher

impossible to cap. might be smart to step away for a minute. i can make good money off commercials.

On one hand you have a good point. Variance has been pretty outta whack to start the year and it's been almost polar opposite as it was the first 4-5 weeks from last year. Having said that now that there are enough stats to use effectively, it should balance out the rest of the way. The other thing I've noticed is that the books are inflating favorites more than I've seen in the past, yet the public continue to bite. From what I've analyzed for week 6 almost every favorite is inflated at least 2-5 points with the exception of a few games. There's no more secrets from here on out and finding an edge will be the same as any other year.

JimmysEgo · 10-12-10, 02:11 AM

Yes, I wish it were more predictable so that I would never lose.

thefuture · 10-12-10, 02:58 AM

Theres plenty of money to be made I dont have all of my picks on here to prove it but they are on my facebook so my friends can follow and Ive been making out all right honestly my best year ever. You just have to start thinking outside the box. Dont waste time crunching stats and basing picks on how one team performed against the other. Maybe they have good pass stats because they are always losing. Or maybe there run d is good because they always have a lead DON'T FEED INTO IT IT WILL BURN YOU MORE TIMES THAN NOT. Almost a year ago I read an article about a real succesful handicapper and put what was in the article in to effect. Basically it comes down to injuries which you probably already know but you have to know which ones are impotant! The problem is when most see a qb or rb out they jump on the other team and get burned because the line is so inflated. Anytime you see a Center or Tackle especially Left tackle out go the other way no matter if a team is home or away. Most dont realize that a center or LT are just as important as the QB and its not reflected in the spread so you can get great value. When a tackle is out it changes the play calling when a back up center misses a line call you see free rushers for sack fumbles and botched snaps all game. Case in point the houston texans this year As soon as D brown got suspended they played the cowboys Demarcus ware had 3 sacks and named NFC defensive player of the week and the Cowboys smoked them! Actually the texans havent done much since then. Look at the eagles to end last season Jamal brown center gets hurt and they get smoked by the cowboys in back to back weeks. Look at the jets game tonight back up center botched snaps all night long. Sean Ohara when they played the Titans in week 2. Could go on and on but you get the point. Not saying its full proof but if you see a rookie or career bench rider coming in hop on it but try to stick with the first week because obviously after that first game the replacement gets experience and you have to reavaluate. This week the bucs center who started the last 38 games for them is out against the saints guess which way Im going?

bobbyk1133 · 10-12-10, 03:11 AM

Originally posted by thefuture

Anytime you see a Center or Tackle especially Left tackle out go the other way no matter if a team is home or away. Most dont realize that a center or LT are just as important as the QB.

Centers and left tackles are important? I thought they were just on the field so they could meet the 11 player requirement. Thanks for the insight.

thefuture · 10-12-10, 03:18 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Centers and left tackles are important? I thought they were just on the field so they could meet the 11 player requirement. Thanks for the insight.

That line was alomost as dumb as your post... The NFL is unpredictable NO SH&*... If you know it all then the post wasn't meant for you just trying to give a few folks some help because your obviously crying out for it. And your joke sucked anyway.

bobbyk1133 · 10-12-10, 04:00 AM

Originally posted by thefuture

That line was alomost as dumb as your post... The NFL is unpredictable NO SH&*... If you know it all then the post wasn't meant for you just trying to give a few folks some help because your obviously crying out for it. And your joke sucked anyway.

You had to edit this? How many times did you rewrite it before you hit submit?

I'm sure everyone is thankful that you told them the left tackle is an important position.

The joke is on me.

GunShard · 10-12-10, 05:50 AM

CorkyThatcher, try purposely betting on the worst team with the most point spread and avoid close games like the -4 -3 -2 -1 games.

If your wins are at 40%, then do my tactic.
But if your a good handicapper and are winning at 60%, then stick with your original tactic.

$Burm$ · 10-12-10, 05:57 AM

heres a hint, dont cap...let the lines do the betting for you, theres no pt. in capping cuz everything u can think of and more is already put into the line by oddsmakers, you dont have enough info to cap a game and make a correct number..how are you supposed to cap a fumble by a RB or a special teams block punt..ITS IMPOSSIBLE

wquine · 10-12-10, 06:05 AM

and how do you let the lines bet for you? Like if the public is 80% on a -3 and it moves to -2.5 in favor of the public, bet the other side?

kickenchicken · 10-12-10, 06:06 AM

i need a beer

Richkas · 10-12-10, 06:07 AM

Originally posted by CorkyThatcher

did you watch the oakland and cincy games?

My system had oakland.

koby25 · 10-12-10, 06:55 AM

I've had a good year. It's all on who ya got

jjgold · 10-12-10, 07:10 AM

It is called parity

Get use to it because happening in all sports.

thebestthereis · 10-12-10, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by Richkas

My system had oakland.

Now Oakland is a touchdown dog to winless San Fran, holy Fukkkkkkkkkkkkking shit. I went directly past laughing.

Hoja Verdes · 10-12-10, 07:56 AM

Lots of parity = public gets killed . Nothing new here.

jgray · 10-12-10, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Richkas

My system had oakland.

How did your system know that SD would have 2 punts blocked (one for a safety and one for a TD) as well as a pick 6?

I'm not saying you weren't on the right side, it just seems that your win had little to do with a system in that one.

str · 10-12-10, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by jgray

How did your system know that SD would have 2 punts blocked (one for a safety and one for a TD) as well as a pick 6?

I'm not saying you weren't on the right side, it just seems that your win had little to do with a system in that one.

Division dogs are 21-4 this season.
Here is one more:
PLAY ON any 1-3 NFL team in game 5 off a loss vs. a DIVISION opponent off a win.
PLAY ON : Oakland Raiders
Since 1985 21-3= 88%
Make that 22-3.
Hope that helps.

jgray · 10-12-10, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by str

Division dogs are 21-4 this season.
Here is one more:
PLAY ON any 1-3 NFL team in game 5 off a loss vs. a DIVISION opponent off a win.
PLAY ON : Oakland Raiders
Since 1985 21-3= 88%
Make that 22-3.
Hope that helps.

So all divisional dogs will be spotted 16 points by the road team? That's the system?

Obviously I'm only asking the questions rhetorically. Take out those points and your system was wrong. The Raiders had no answer for Rivers who could move the ball at will. The system gets a win but not because of the system.

The original point in this thread was about the unpredicablity of the NFL right now. System or no, the OAK/SD game was a good example of that.

Or am I wrong? Did your system predict the pick-6 cover for the Jets last night?

str · 10-12-10, 09:25 AM

Please do not call it a system. I never said that and it is not one.
I do not care about so called systems.
If you want to break down the plays of a game to argue a point , well ,I am not going to argue with anybody.
I am trying to help.
Wash. was up 14-0 on Philly. 2 weeks ago.This has nothing to do with anything.
What does matter is that Division rivals know one another very well.These games simply matter more.You can game plan for these teams year around because you know you are going to see them twice a year.
You will never get hurt playing division dogs.Especially home dogs.
Again , I hope that helps you down the road.

big0mar · 10-12-10, 09:43 AM

NFL isn't hard. You just need to understand the game.

jgray · 10-12-10, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by str

Please do not call it a system. I never said that and it is not one.
I do not care about so called systems.
If you want to break down the plays of a game to argue a point , well ,I am not going to argue with anybody.
I am trying to help.
Wash. was up 14-0 on Philly. 2 weeks ago.This has nothing to do with anything.
What does matter is that Division rivals know one another very well.These games simply matter more.You can game plan for these teams year around because you know you are going to see them twice a year.
You will never get hurt playing division dogs.Especially home dogs.
Again , I hope that helps you down the road.

We had a breakdown in communication. Rickas said "system" and I responded to that. When you replied to me I assumed you were also talking about a system.

Incidentally, I agree with you about divsional games and rarely wager against the home-dog. Given the percentages, rarely might be too often.

I was not on either side of the OAK/SD game. It was just the "system" comment that got my attention. Hopefully people will read your post and think twice about backing road divisional favorites. Not a long term winning strategy.

nobodyukno · 10-12-10, 09:56 AM

Just be thankful for last year's easy plays

str · 10-12-10, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by jgray

We had a breakdown in communication. Rickas said "system" and I responded to that. When you replied to me I assumed you were also talking about a system.

Incidentally, I agree with you about divsional games and rarely wager against the home-dog. Given the percentages, rarely might be too often.

I was not on either side of the OAK/SD game. It was just the "system" comment that got my attention. Hopefully people will read your post and think twice about backing road divisional favorites. Not a long term winning strategy.

I completely agree.
Best of luck down the road.

d2bets · 10-12-10, 10:02 AM

It's funny you say it's unpredictable when really the problem is hat it's almost TOO predictable....meaning that the lines are very very tight and tons of games fall very close to the number, decided by late game stuff that is tough to predict. Thus. bottom line is get a good number/odds and use teasers wisely.

CorkyThatcher · 10-12-10, 02:10 PM

I get what you people are saying, however no one can call the blocked punts or the ridiculous interception returns for a touchdown (with 1:20 left in the 4th quarter). No one can forecast the "whacky" and this week seemed to highlight the unpredictable nature of the game. I cashed out my account and will take a week or two. I think it's best if some of you do the same. Remember, life goes on boys...

NYSportsGuy210 · 10-12-10, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by str

Please do not call it a system. I never said that and it is not one.
I do not care about so called systems.
If you want to break down the plays of a game to argue a point , well ,I am not going to argue with anybody.
I am trying to help.
Wash. was up 14-0 on Philly. 2 weeks ago.This has nothing to do with anything.
What does matter is that Division rivals know one another very well.These games simply matter more.You can game plan for these teams year around because you know you are going to see them twice a year.
You will never get hurt playing division dogs.Especially home dogs.
Again , I hope that helps you down the road.

This is a very insightful trend and an absolute correct one also.

raiders32 · 10-12-10, 02:51 PM

I had a terrible weekend, losing both college and Nfl.

JimmysEgo · 10-12-10, 04:26 PM

I'm up this weekend in both college and NFL. Would have been up a lot more if Cincy covered my parlay. Oh well, will hit the big parlay this week.

Grosshhit · 10-12-10, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by $Burm$

heres a hint, dont cap...let the lines do the betting for you, theres no pt. in capping cuz everything u can think of and more is already put into the line by oddsmakers, you dont have enough info to cap a game and make a correct number..how are you supposed to cap a fumble by a RB or a special teams block punt..ITS IMPOSSIBLE

great fukin point man. i have been doing this the last 3 weeks. Just monitor the lines everyday or two then come the weekend, Ride the Steam or Fade the Public...... its all in the lines

thebestthereis · 10-12-10, 08:37 PM

just pick the games you really think will win, leave the rest out and you'll be fine