i was on covers for the past hour or so and i found out something you guys probably already know. road dogs are the way to go. in november and december road dogs covered 168 and lost 138. I emailed jr miller earlier today and he told me its a trend that works for the long term.
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You could use more detail there. What sport and league are you talking about? I assume you're talking pointspreads but you didn't specify.
I have done a lot of research on a lot of sports and I can tell you this: I can't think of one situation where a generalization like, "road dogs are the way to go," is true. Sometimes you can narrow the parameters and find something that works long-term but, like I say, I've never seen a case where that blanket statement works.
My experience with JR Miller is he has decent knowledge of gambling theory but his actual picks are about as accurate as a coinflip. I wouldn't risk 5 cents based on something he said.Comment -
interesting....Comment -
oh sorry, it was road dogs in the nba. so far for this season i've worked it out to be up 13.8 units. i probably made mistakes checking. If covers hadn't removed the stats from the previous seasons i would've checked that out. you're probably right though, this might just be a fluke. afterall i'm very new to this.
about jr miller, i've only been monitoring him now for a couple months and in a year's time i'll let you know how he's done. I'd say he's better than a coinflip though... a lot betterComment -
I always liked Miller but he has a whole bunch of critics.Comment -
i'm looking through the 2004 stats on statfox and it seems like this year is just a fluke. sorry about thatComment -
these types of trends are comman to sharps.
theres alot of trends out there that nobody will even say anything about. odds are because, they don't even really look that in depth at them.Comment -
its funny because when i look at the lines used from statfox, i get a totally different record than when i look at don best. I guess because don best uses the closing line where statfox maybe doesn't? I'm confused. I still have hope that this trend might be legitimate. i'll investigate further and let you know what i come up with
there has to be some real good trends that a lot of the sharps like to hide from us regulars, so i'm gonna see if this one turns out to be true or not
update: from what i am seeing so far, it is absolutely essential that you get these nba road dogs at the best line possible. I'm noticing that using don best closing lines the road dog's are covering more frequently than not. If you played all the dogs early you'd most likely lose a whole bunch of them. When i have time i'll give you all the numbersComment -
road dogs have been doing pretty well in college hoops as well...Comment -
so far for this season, i've went through covers closing lines and found a 6 unit bias towards road dogs covering. It's not much, but i guess if you could eliminate teams with strong home court strength you should be able to do a lot betterComment
