What's the probability of a game going to overtime in the NBA?

[rake922]

LT Profits?

Anybody?

[Data]

About 0.065.

[rm18]

but depends on the line, games where the favorite is projected to win SU over 90% should go OT much less often

[chandler1981]

RM18,
Can you explain what you are saying? I think I am reading it wrong. Aren't all favorites projected to win all the time?

[ShamsWoof10]

but depends on the line, games where the favorite is projected to win SU over 90% should go OT much less often

I would think this is factored in... I would think all the games of all spreads are factored in...

Are you saying a lower spread has a better chance of going into OT then a high spread..?

[rm18]

I mean games with big spreads are less likely to go OT because they are less likely to be close.

[rm18]

I don't have any data, but I would think high scoring games go OT more often though just off of memory.

[donjuan]

Are you saying a lower spread has a better chance of going into OT then a high spread..?

You would have to be a retard to not figure this out intuitively.

[Scorpion]

I don't have any data, but I would think high scoring games go OT more often though just off of memory.

Yes, if a game goes OVER in the first half it has a higher chance OT!

[Scorpion]

What's the probability of a game going to overtime in the NBA?

I read somewhere 6.8%

[RickySteve]

0.066883117

[imgv94]

Damn, I thought it would be higher.

[Ganchrow]

What's the probability of a game going to overtime in the NBA?

Using covers.com regular season and playoff data from the 1997/98 season to date:

<style> .GANCH { font-size: 10px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</style> <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=2> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> Season </td> <td align=left class=GANCH> OT Games </td> <td align=left class=GANCH> Tot Games </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> %
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 1997/98 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 76 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1,260 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.032%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 1998/99 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 49 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 791 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.195%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 1999/00 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 66 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1,264 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 5.222%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 2000/01 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 85 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1,260 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.746%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 2001/02 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 75 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1,260 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 5.952%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 2002/03 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 94 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1,277 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 7.361%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 2003/04 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 75 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1,271 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 5.901%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 2004/05 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 85 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1,314 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.469%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 2005/06 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 96 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1,319 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 7.278%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 2006/07 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 90 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1,309 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.875%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 2007/08 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 33 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 621 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 5.314%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> TOTAL </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 824 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 12,946 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.365%
</td> </tr> </table>

[nitsuj]

Using covers.com regular season and playoff data from the 1997/98 season to date:

 Season  	OT Games  	Tot Games  	     %
1997/98 	76      	1,260   	6.032%
1998/99 	49      	791     	6.195%
1999/00 	66      	1,264   	5.222%
2000/01 	85      	1,260   	6.746%
2001/02 	75      	1,260   	5.952%
2002/03 	94      	1,277   	7.361%
2003/04 	75      	1,271   	5.901%
2004/05 	85      	1,314   	6.469%
2005/06 	96      	1,319   	7.278%
2006/07 	90      	1,309   	6.875%
2007/08 	33      	621     	5.314%
TOTAL   	824      	12,946   	6.365%

If it's not too much work, can you group them by spreads?

Thanks.

[shasso]

A bit over 6% makes sence since the lines for a draw are originally 15 and 15 is 1/0,0666. Some books use 12 tho and some change it on the basis if match is supposed to be close or not.

[Ganchrow]

If it's not too much work, can you group them by spreads?

<style> .GANCH { font-size: 10px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</style> <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=2> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> Spread </td> <td align=left class=GANCH> OT Games </td> <td align=left class=GANCH> Tot Games </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> %
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 0 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 24 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 306 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 7.843%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 1 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 43 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 536 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 8.022%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 1.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 26 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 378 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.878%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 2 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 45 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 663 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.787%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 2.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 62 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 668 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 9.281%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 3 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 69 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 750 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 9.200%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 3.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 56 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 727 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 7.703%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 4 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 54 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 759 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 7.115%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 4.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 42 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 754 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 5.570%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 56 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 749 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 7.477%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 5.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 49 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 647 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 7.573%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 6 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 47 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 722 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.510%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 6.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 34 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 653 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 5.207%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 7 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 34 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 609 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 5.583%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 7.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 25 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 493 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 5.071%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 8 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 30 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 521 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 5.758%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 8.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 28 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 425 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.588%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 9 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 19 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 423 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 4.492%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 9.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 16 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 366 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 4.372%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 10 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 9 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 307 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 2.932%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 10.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 11 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 241 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 4.564%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 11 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 10 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 241 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 4.149%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 11.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 11 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 175 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.286%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 12 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 8 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 164 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 4.878%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 12.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 140 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 4.286%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 13 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 7 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 130 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 5.385%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 13.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 91 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1.099%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 14 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 94 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0.000%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 14.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 56 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1.786%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 15 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 61 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1.639%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 15.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 30 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0.000%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 16 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 42 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 2.381%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 16.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 9 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0.000%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 17 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 16 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0.000%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 17.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 11 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0.000%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 18 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 4 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0.000%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 18.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 2 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0.000%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 19 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 2 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0.000%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> 19.5 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 1 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 0.000%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=GANCH> TOTAL </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 825 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 12,966 </td> <td align=right class=GANCH> 6.363% </td> </tr> </table>

[rake922]

Ganchrow what span is that?

How many seasons?

Reg season only?

[durito]

Ganchrow what span is that?

How many seasons?

Reg season only?

..

Using covers.com regular season and playoff data from the 1997/98 season to date:

[brock]

cool info, so about 6 out of every 100 go OT

[pokernut9999]

And all this info helps who ?

Can I win more bets knowing this ?

[imgv94]

Lol

[rm18]

And all this info helps who ?

Can I win more bets knowing this ?

you should factor this in to betting totals, game and second half

[pokernut9999]

you should factor this in to betting totals, game and second half

Yea , I think I will just skip totals all together now. If I had this info earlier I would have never bet a total.

[rake922]

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