open: Kansas State -4.5 @ Col
current: Kansas State -3/-3.5 @ Col: 0/u 139
Kansas State: (sagarin #37, RPI #36)
12-4
5-5 ats
1-2 away
0/u 7-3
Colorado: (sagarin #144, RPI #114)
9-8
6-7 ats
4-4 home
0/u 6-7
wagerline consensus: 67.79% on kansas state
Kansas state comes in as one of the more interesting teams in the nation, led by the countries most dynamic talent, Michael Beasley (24.6 ppg/12.6 boards). Beasley isnt alone on the floor however, 6-6 Bill Walker is another dominant presence, posting 16 and 6 a night.
In recent weeks, the wildcats have won 7 of 8 including blow out over Texas A&M, and a very solid win on the road over OU. Knst has only played a couple true road games, the notre dame loss is listed as a road loss, but that game was played in NY; their largest road test came at Xavier where they were blown out badly by a team that was able to find their way to the line 39 times.
When you look over how this team succeeds, it all comes down to rebounding. the wildcats shoot an awful percentage from the line, from the floor, and from 3, but they are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and they get 2nd chance points. Col will have to clean up the glass if they hope to win this one.
In and interview with Rivals, first year coach Frank Martin talked a lot about Walker and his revovery from the big knee injury. Martin seems to think this kid is finally confident in his legs and that this team is playing its best ball right now. He goes on to discuss a bit about the upcoming game with Colordao. here is the interview:
The Buffs come into this game 0-4 vs the top 50 and really struggling overall. Their best game of the year may have been their last, when they held Texas to 40% shooting and fell to the longhorns by 2, as a 17.5 point dog. Over the years it seems Col has gotten the rep as a tough home team, but they've really struggled vs the number at home this season. This team will only go as far as Richard Roby can take them, the 6-6 swing man is a California hs star that's put up close to 20 points in Colorado's last 8 games. He knocks down about 50% from the field and just over 37% from 3. Roby will, no doubt, be the focus of the Wildcat defense tonight, and that will leave Silas and Hall the chance to step up. Xavier Silas is a young kid from Texas that was fairly highly thought of coming out of hs and had some decent offers before deciding on the Buffs. Hes another 6-5/6-6 guard the forms a nice trio with Marucs Hall; all 3 average over 10 points per contest.
Col will try to force problems for Kansas state with their 4 guard offense and ability to shoot the 3. Twice this year KNST has faced offenses that run 4 guards at the same time as Coach Martin references here:
"We've played two teams who play very similar to them," Martin said of Colorado. "Western Illinois runs a very similar offense and Pittsburg State. Those are two teams we didn't do a good job defending earlier in the year. Those two games were earlier in the season, and we're a little better now than we were then." -gopowercat.com
This small lineup could create some open outside looks for Colorado, but look for them to be one and done more often than not. Col ranks 318th i the nation in offensive rebounding while the wildcats rank 4th nationally in that catagory. Ironically, one of the bigger concerns the cats seem to be facing on the road tonight will be the lack of crowd noise in the arena on wed night. gopowercat.com got this quote from Pullen:
"Oklahoma has a really good fan base," Pullen said of the challenges of playing on the road in the Big 12. "Our coach was telling us that Colorado will lull you to sleep because they don't have a loud crowd. He said it will seem like it's empty and seem like you're playing for no reason, but we still have to come out with the same energy as in the Oklahoma game and get a win."
If the biggest factor in the favore of colorado is the lack of crowd noise, while the cats come in with the advatage of having more talent and a healthy Bill Walker, im going to have to lean towards the Wildcats having the advantage tonight. Beasley and Walker arent much out of HS anyway, they're used to playing without the noise. If Kansas State can take care of the ball, i look for them to improve to 3-0 in the big-12 and cover the 3 tonight.
my play
knst -3
trend players:
ATS TrendsKansas St.
Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Wildcats are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. Big 12.
Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Wildcats are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite.
Wildcats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Colorado
Buffaloes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Buffaloes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.
Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Buffaloes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Buffaloes are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Buffaloes are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as a home underdog.
Buffaloes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Buffaloes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
OU TrendsKansas St.
Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Over is 6-0 in Wildcats last 6 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 8-2 in Wildcats last 10 road games.
Over is 7-2 in Wildcats last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 6-2 in Wildcats last 8 games as a road favorite.
Over is 8-3 in Wildcats last 11 overall.
Over is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Colorado
Under is 4-0 in Buffaloes last 4 games following a ATS win.
Over is 7-1 in Buffaloes last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 5-1 in Buffaloes last 6 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 19-7 in Buffaloes last 26 Wednesday games.
Over is 5-2 in Buffaloes last 7 vs. Big 12.
Head to HeadWildcats are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Colorado.
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Colorado.
Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
