Games like tonight are the PERFECT example of why i bet ML's in Football

[Brock Landers]

I like to pick winners, usually eschew the spread and focus on who will win the fukking game. If i had the Saints -5 instead of ML i would have thrown up all over myself in the last 2 mins.

Risk the extra juice boys, or take the extra juice, fuk the points.

Bottom line, pick fukking winners

[obamaismyuncle]

I like to pick winners, usually eschew the spread and focus on who will win the fukking game. If i had the Saints -5 instead of ML i would have thrown up all over myself in the last 2 mins.

Risk the extra juice boys, or take the extra juice, fuk the points.

Bottom line, pick fukking winners

Or take the Niners + the points?

[Jimmy0607]

Your history as a winning gambler backs you up Brock

[mtneer1212]

Sometimes you make a good point dammit.

[SCRAGGS]

Bottom line, pick fukking winners[/quote]




I will be getting a tatoo of this on my neck tomorrow

[Brock Landers]

Or take the Niners + the points?

no, take the ML if you liked SF...would have lost here, but certainly like the approach better with the small faves.

[2ForTheMoney]

Couple of dumb fumbles lost the game for 49ers.. But they could of easily won and you would of been down over double of what you bet.. Anyway good bet!!

[No coincidences]

Or just don't take a big square fave -- especially on the road.

Think about it, Brock -- how many "rubber band plays" that have crashed and burned recently were huge public picks? Have you noticed?

[Brock Landers]

Or just don't take a big square fave -- especially on the road. Think about it, Brock -- how many "rubber band plays" that have crashed and burned recently were huge public picks? Have you noticed?

i liked the Saints to WIN this game, weather they could do it by more than a FG on the road is another discussion.

[sweethook]

nice win, gl

[MJFtheGenius]

Many sharps will tell you the only way to win in this business is to bet the moneyline

[Brock Landers]

nothing stings more than big, 200+ ML faves losing outright. But i swear to God, watch in the NBA how many ML faves lose outright, its shocking. If i've gotten my brains beat in anywhere over the years, its been betting on NBA ML Faves. The Dogs win a lot of the time outright.

[Nicky Santoro]

good call, brocker. i too love moneylines. i too had N.O ml tonight.. but some days you will profit from it, and some days you will knock yourself.. look at yesterday.

if you bet Ml's instead of spreads.. you had Dal -300+, Tenn -250, Car -200, min -200, cle -170... all lost outright.. but if you had them on the spread, you'd only have lost each at -105.. tonight it helped, but a day like yesetrday can ruin you... so be careful.

[Brock Landers]

good call, brocker. i too love moneylines. i too had N.O ml tonight.. but some days you will profit from it, and some days you will knock yourself.. look at yesterday. if you bet Ml's instead of spreads.. you had Dal -300+, Tenn -250, Car -200, min -200, cle -170... all lost outright.. but if you had them on the spread, you'd only have lost each at -105.. tonight it helped, but a day like yesetrday can ruin you... so be careful.

i had Tennessee and New England ML yesterday and it was a blood bath. Make back a decent chunk tonight, but man, sunday almost had me in tears

[rickbo528]

good call, brocker. i too love moneylines. i too had N.O ml tonight.. but some days you will profit from it, and some days you will knock yourself.. look at yesterday.

if you bet Ml's instead of spreads.. you had Dal -300+, Tenn -250, Car -200, min -200, cle -170... all lost outright.. but if you had them on the spread, you'd only have lost each at -105.. tonight it helped, but a day like yesetrday can ruin you... so be careful.

I tried 2 moneyline parlays that I was so sure would hit. First was Vikings, Chargers and Colts. Second was Cowboys, Saints and Vikings. I thought no way would Vikings not bounce back at home with Miami. My faith in Vikings and Cowboys cost me. Didn't bet big but it woulda been sweet to hit them.

[sneak-a-peak]

The last 2 years the straight up winner has covered the spread over 80% in the NFL.

I for one learned not to invest in any chalk over -130 in any sport.

Just not worth it IMO, stings too bad when it loses.

Less than -130 for me or I'll just be happy on the sidelines

[No coincidences]

Do you watch line movement, Brock?

And do you see a line and feel like it's set at a certain place for a reason?

For instance, if you seriously considered taking two road faves at more than -3 -- let alone -5 -- on MNF the past two weeks, you maybe need to change your gameplan.

-5 is a horrible number in NFL -- even worse than NBA, if that's possible. Combine that with the road factor and the MNF factor, and you couldn't have held a gun to my head and made me even consider New Orleans tonight. If I'd lost, so be it.

Now I will say this: I was also blindsided by the Pats and Titans yesterday -- especially Tenn. laying an egg at home and getting beat SU in the 2H by Charlie goddam batch. Yet when I went to lay my 2H bet on the Titans, where was the line moving? In PIT's favor.

Line movement is your friend, whether you admit you like the direction or not. Depends on if you're stubborn enough to stick with your pick or go with the flow of sharp money.

[tim0402]

Saints shouldnt of won you got lucky, you should of lost.. you would of thrown up? why????

[lakerboy]

i had Tennessee and New England ML yesterday and it was a blood bath. Make back a decent chunk tonight, but man, sunday almost had me in tears

so after calling the bears as the best ml live dog you didnt play them brockster?

[Brock Landers]

Do you watch line movement, Brock? And do you see a line and feel like it's set at a certain place for a reason? For instance, if you seriously considered taking two road faves at more than -3 -- let alone -5 -- on MNF the past two weeks, you maybe need to change your gameplan. -5 is a horrible number in NFL -- even worse than NBA, if that's possible. Combine that with the road factor and the MNF factor, and you couldn't have held a gun to my head and made me even consider New Orleans tonight. If I'd lost, so be it. Now I will say this: I was also blindsided by the Pats and Titans yesterday -- especially Tenn. laying an egg at home and getting beat SU in the 2H by Charlie goddam batch. Yet when I went to lay my 2H bet on the Titans, where was the line moving? In PIT's favor. Line movement is your friend, whether you admit you like the direction or not. Depends on if you're stubborn enough to stick with your pick or go with the flow of sharp money.

excellent point my man

[Brock Landers]

so after calling the bears as the best ml live dog you didnt play them brockster?

they were the 2nd in line after tennessee ML...IF wagers are my thing. So it became NO ACTION. Fukking Titans, man did they get their asses handed to them

[No coincidences]

excellent point my man

I don't know how many times I've gone to hammer a play and not liked the direction it was heading in juice-wise -- yet I played it anyway and got destroyed. At worst, I should skip it and move on to the next one.

Lines are where they are for a reason. Juice goes where it goes for a reason. Sharps cash for a reason. RLM is real. There are no perfect formulas or 100% plays, but the more you pay attention to line movement and sharp money, the better you'll be long-term. I have my boy LB to thank for a lesson learned -- even if it still comes the hard way at times.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Do you watch line movement, Brock?

And do you see a line and feel like it's set at a certain place for a reason?

For instance, if you seriously considered taking two road faves at more than -3 -- let alone -5 -- on MNF the past two weeks, you maybe need to change your gameplan.

-5 is a horrible number in NFL -- even worse than NBA, if that's possible. Combine that with the road factor and the MNF factor, and you couldn't have held a gun to my head and made me even consider New Orleans tonight. If I'd lost, so be it.

Now I will say this: I was also blindsided by the Pats and Titans yesterday -- especially Tenn. laying an egg at home and getting beat SU in the 2H by Charlie goddam batch. Yet when I went to lay my 2H bet on the Titans, where was the line moving? In PIT's favor.

Line movement is your friend, whether you admit you like the direction or not. Depends on if you're stubborn enough to stick with your pick or go with the flow of sharp money.

Excellent point but I went against the line movement even when it was clearly staring me in the face. Even the Arizona/Iowa CFB game as well. Anytime you see that you should no play or low play in that spot. Me like a dummy bet the house, now I'm looking for a cardboard box

[No coincidences]

Excellent point but I went against the line movement even when it was clearly staring me in the face. Even the Arizona/Iowa CFB game as well. Anytime you see that you should no play or low play in that spot. Me like a dummy bet the house, now I'm looking for a cardboard box

It's a little trickier with CFB, because I think squares (seem to) cash more there vs. NFL.

For instance, I took a beating with Washington and Texas Tech. But I cashed big with Arizona.

[lakerboy]

I don't know how many times I've gone to hammer a play and not liked the direction it was heading in juice-wise -- yet I played it anyway and got destroyed. At worst, I should skip it and move on to the next one.

Lines are where they are for a reason. Juice goes where it goes for a reason. Sharps cash for a reason. RLM is real. There are no perfect formulas or 100% plays, but the more you pay attention to line movement and sharp money, the better you'll be long-term. I have my boy LB to thank for a lesson learned -- even if it still comes the hard way at times.

Fading RLM long term you will be a loser. That is plain fact. THe thing you have to understand as a line watcher is that sometimes the RLM is not 100% for real but if it exists to a strong degree there will be a point in the game( if your fading rlm and know it) you will be looking and telling yourself" i should have went with the money". People dont forget that sharp money and steam win long term.

[Albert Pujols]

Not like it matters, you still lose your ass.

[No coincidences]

Fading RLM long term you will be a loser. That is plain fact. THe thing you have to understand as a line watcher is that sometimes the RLM is not 100% for real but if it exists to a strong degree there will be a point in the game( if your fading rlm and know it) you will be looking and telling yourself" i should have went with the money". People dont forget that sharp money and steam win long term.

Like I said, there is no magic formula. But more often than not, if you fade RLM, you're only hurting yourself. As you said, this is a proven fact.

I'm at the stage where I'm trying to learn when RLM is legit vs. a bluff.

[Sean81]

Congrats on your ML win. One thing to keep in mind is teams who win the game straight up in the NFL also cover the spread over 80% of the time. Of course there is a how to lie with statistics element to this because underdogs who win by definition cover the spread. However I believe this number is higher than all other major sports which speaks against playing money lines.

[BettingWizard]

Moneyline Favorites have inflated prices, unless the spread is 3 pts or less


Find me one person that is rich soley from betting moneyline favs

[icancount2one]

I like dog moneylines a lot of the time, but the only time I might take fave moneylines is on the dreaded 3.5

I got so burned on OAK and PHI this week... but c'est la guerre.

[Sunde91]

AYE BROCK, lay -225+ on 5 point favorites every game this season and see how you fair at the end of the season vs. laying the points.

[lakerboy]

AYE BROCK, lay -225+ on 5 point favorites everygame this season and see how you fair at the end of the season vs. laying the points.

thats why i made this thread.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/683121-brock-landers.html

I wanna see if brock can help us all out.

[Sunde91]

thats why i made this thread.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/683121-brock-landers.html

I wanna see if brock can help us all out.

Hmm, honestly didn't see that, a prudent challenge nonetheless

[eidolon]

brock: because of safeties?

[jjgold]

Good points Brock

I was never a ML bettor though