US Open Final: NADAL vs DJOKOVIC

[Cuse0323]

Oy with the "value" Nadal wins IMO. No way he lets this opportunity to get the Career Slam pass him by.

Yeah, DJoke may have value but I'd rather bet on the winner. The extra day is good for the books, more people will be on Novak.

[Psychic]

NADAL TO WIN AT 6-3 5-7 7-6 6-4.....................total games will be over 38

[Philavanh]

Going with the underdog today......Djok!!!!! GL all

[msj0001]

RAFA in 4

[TheSchafe]

Wouldn't be surprised if this sees another delay. I live about a half hour west of NYC and I'm seeing a squall line bearing down on the area

[PAYTON20]

Oy with the "value"


Nadal wins IMO. No way he lets this opportunity to get the Career Slam pass him by.

Thank God someone said it finally. Enough of this "value" bullshit. It doesn't matter if Djokovic was +1000 there is no value in a losing bet. Period.

[jjgold]

1st set Nadal

[PAYTON20]

1st set Nadal

Nadal 106-1 in Grand Slams when winning the 1st set... Suddenly not too much "value" on Djokovic anymore

[Goat Milk]

If Novak plays to his potential he can beat Nadal any day of the week on hard courts. Nadal is too focused though.

[ThatYungstarr]

No way Rafa loses

[yisman]

Djokovic in kill mode

love break followed up by a love hold

[yisman]

Thank God someone said it finally. Enough of this "value" bullshit. It doesn't matter if Djokovic was +1000 there is no value in a losing bet. Period.

So you'd say Nadal had a 100% chance of winning?

Value is everything in betting.

[EaglesPhan36]

Value is just an over used gambling term like sharp or square. I just get tired of hearing people use it as a precursor to their bets. I think too many people think a good price is reason enough to take an underdog without actually capping their pick and banking on "value" as being a good enough reason. Certainly not everyone does this, but I get the feeling a good amount of people who use that term do.

[yisman]

of course it's overused but the posts about how there's "no value to a losing bet" just defy logic.

Every bet comes down to percentages. If you could tell me ahead of time 100% winners, I'd like to hear them.

[PAYTON20]

So you'd say Nadal had a 100% chance of winning?

Value is everything in betting.

No not 100% obviously. But I am confident he will win. I am just saying sometimes people take this "value" idea too far- Especially when betting the underdog. Obviously it's not a good idea to lay heavy heavy chalk to win a small amount...but on the same token, it's not a good idea to bet on an underdog strictly because it has value. Like I said, a losing bet is a losing bet. There is no value in losing money

[yisman]

Rain delay

[Brock Landers]

Rain delay going to take away Nadal's big MO

[yisman]

No not 100% obviously. But I am confident he will win. I am just saying sometimes people take this "value" idea too far- Especially when betting the underdog. Obviously it's not a good idea to lay heavy heavy chalk to win a small amount...but on the same token, it's not a good idea to bet on an underdog strictly because it has value. Like I said, a losing bet is a losing bet. There is no value in losing money

A losing bet is a losing bet, but since there's no way of knowing ahead of time, what's the point?

If I take a side I believe wins 20% of the time and it's +600, I accept that I will most likely lose the bet, but I place it because I believe it to have value.

[EaglesPhan36]

Rain delay gives Djokovic more time to think about how he blew this 2nd set.

And the term value should just be outlawed.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

No not 100% obviously. But I am confident he will win. I am just saying sometimes people take this "value" idea too far-

You can't take the "value idea too far". Value means a bet that will on average make money (ie +EV), and if you're not betting that, by definition you lose money longterm (except if you get very lucky with a giant parlay that swamps lifetime losses).

Saying "confident he'll win" doesn't really mean much - what % does that mean? 80? 85? 90? That's not some abstract matter, the % there is what determines whether it's a good bet. For the record, BetFair inplay markets think 84%, although imo that's a bit much. Djokovic was busy blowing up there, and the rain delay will allow him to sort his head.

[EaglesPhan36]

I prefer this for future terminology for value-heads.

My assessment of the potential profit that I would return on venturing into the position of backing the underdog would prove monetarily worthy to the price that I pay versus backing the market price for the favorite in this situation.

[Tommy_de1st]

The rain actually helps Djoko

[PAYTON20]

A losing bet is a losing bet, but since there's no way of knowing ahead of time, what's the point?

If I take a side I believe wins 20% of the time and it's +600, I accept that I will most likely lose the bet, but I place it because I believe it to have value.

I understand this but I swear people sometimes take this ideology too far and it gets in the way of objectively capping a game. If I had to say before the match, I would've said Nadal 70-80%. Now it should be 80%+ like Heehaw noted.

This is not the best example here because Djokovic is actually really good and can win if he plays well. But I saw some people betting on Canada, Jordan, and Angola to win the FIBA World Championship because it had value. That is not value... it is throwing your money in the dumpster. I'm with EaglesPhan, I'm just annoyed with the term... I'd rather talk about who's going to win and why.

[Wulfman14]

I understand this but I swear people sometimes take this ideology too far and it gets in the way of objectively capping a game. If I had to say before the match, I would've said Nadal 70-80%. Now it should be 80%+ like Heehaw noted.

This is not the best example here because Djokovic is actually really good and can win if he plays well. But I saw some people betting on Canada, Jordan, and Angola to win the FIBA World Championship because it had value. That is not value... it is throwing your money in the dumpster. I'm with EaglesPhan, I'm just annoyed with the term... I'd rather talk about who's going to win and why.

yes betting on these type of "value" bets is stupidity and throwing money away. i mean come on angola winning FIBA. ahhahahahah i dont care if odds were 5000 to 1 i wouldnt bet Angola. but i would say in this case that Djok beating Nadal is a value bet win or lose. he has a good chance to pull the upset. when you have players in a match where both are ranked in the top 20-30 i would say it is a value bet in tennis. regardless of the matchup.

[EaglesPhan36]

ESPN2 upon resumption.

[big joe 1212]

wanted to use my winnings on the Jets

fukkin rain!

[flyingillini]

Is this going to resume?

[EaglesPhan36]

Lazy fukks.

http://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2010-09-13/201009111284215130089.html

[ukbsktbll]

In US what station is it on again?

[yisman]

ESPN2

it was on CBS, but not after the delay.

[TennisBabe]

USOPEN Live on usopen.org has the camera on the court for anyone that wants to see rain falling/when they start drying up

[jjgold]

I say 1 hr they are playing

[flyingillini]

Match is retired for the day.

[Goat Milk]

They are cleaning the courts now Illini, they will continue to play I believe.

[Mexes]

I hate these rain breaks