Everyone's favorite sport to bet is back, but how good is it really? I love watching the NFL and betting on it as much as the next guy, but of all the major sports I think it has about the least potential to grow your bankroll. First, there are only 16 games a week and even less during bye weeks. So even if you like 1/3 of the sides/totals, you are talking around 10 plays a week maybe. Even if you hit 55% (which is extremely hard to do consistently), you are netting less than a unit a week. Compare that to baseball where you have 15 games every day or college basketball where you might have 80+ games in a day.
To compound the fact that the opportunities are sparse, the value is much tougher to find as well. Let's say you find a line that is half point or even a full point off in NFL. Big deal. For most of the non-key numbers, you are still -EV. Compare that to basketball, where if you find a number a half point off it can be worth 8-9 cents. Now we're talking.
Thoughts?
To compound the fact that the opportunities are sparse, the value is much tougher to find as well. Let's say you find a line that is half point or even a full point off in NFL. Big deal. For most of the non-key numbers, you are still -EV. Compare that to basketball, where if you find a number a half point off it can be worth 8-9 cents. Now we're talking.
Thoughts?
