I wanted to run this by some of you to see if you noticed this pattern as well. I don't know how many bets i need to make to ensure that it is statistically significant but I believe i have enough to make a good point. For the last 2 years, my local has used the football lines out of the newspaper for that day's action. As we all know, lines can change drastically throughout the day but he will always go off of what was in the paper that morning. Knowing that this could benefit me, I started trying to middle all kinds of games. For those that may not know what I mean, an example is my local would have KC -2.5 and then at matchbook it would be Denver +3 at +110. When making these bets, if the number didn't have a high probability of hitting (3,4 7 for example), I would just play the same line but ensure a profit by taking my local's number at -110 and matchbook at +140. At $300-$400 a game, I made some good money. Over the last 2 years, I have only hit one middle. There were many games where I would have a 3-4 point spread on the middle for the over/under but have yet to hit one. However, my point to all of this is that out of my 300 bets where matchbook would have a line of at least +110, the bet with my local at -110 would win 62% of the time. I did not have the balls to bet $300-400 a game without covering the other side. Knowing what I know now, I think next year I will test this theory for real. I always hear arbitrage players saying that Pinnacle would always lose where the line was at +110 or higher. I believe some quoted this at about 60% as well. It tells me that the lines that Vegas and Offshore use are very sharp at times. If anyone else has any similar strategy, i would be interested in knowing it.
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Pinny will not ALWAYS lose at +110 or higher but your 60% may be right (I'd have to look at my own records as sometimes I will move a line to get a higher result off non important football numbers. The other thing is sometimes Pinny for football will shade the line so as not to be teased through 7 and 3. You will see other sites with a 7.5 line but pinny will be 10 with the corresponding odds with it. The only reason I can see for this is teasers because about 30 minutes before game time they will bring their line back into the "normal range".Comment -
If I'm understanding you correctly, what you're saying is that your local was using "stale" lines, or lines from early in the day that had since changed.
Yes, in general, if you can get stale lines, there is value there. Of course, no one is likely to keep giving you stale lines forever, but as long as they do, when you can get them there is assumed value there, you don't even need a sample of results.Comment -
I'm actually surprised your local would do that in this day and age. Where are you located, just out of curiosity?Comment -
Most on line books don't like it if you hit the moving lines. I know I have hit them and it got my limits slashed at one book. Some books just don't move quick or they wait till they get hit with a large bet then take the game down and review the line. If I was a local I'd have pinny open on my screen and be giving those lines, unless my moneyflow ended up radically different.
The other thing is sometimes I've hit pinny at +113 or something and it finally settles down at +101 or -104 or something. Just because it was a nice plus doesn't mean it SHOULD have been there. Again it's all about finding value.Comment -
i think every system will fail you evetually , i mean this game we call football basketballl etc, is not an exact science.......... i think certain systems will make you money temporarily but not forever........ i think if you can hop on the ones that are currently working and get off when they go to shit , that is a smart stragedy to use, kinda like what you would do in the stock market ........ feel meComment -
Line shopping=money. And when Pinny has a team at +110, they don't lose 60% of the time.Comment -
I agree that most systems will fail you but it definitely is better than using any tout service!!!!Comment -
no you didn'tComment
