First let me thank all you guys who helped me in my bet hedge decision.
Everyone who said if I wanted to hedge I was betting to big, you are mistaken, I just like to have insurance when I am having a great week like I am.
So
as of now I got 344 to win 892 if the Saints win by 5
So I then took the Vikings and bought them to +7.5 for 260 to make 200
I did to make sure I would be up over a dime for the week no matter what.
If I win the game buy 5 I will be up like 1650,
If the Vikings win Ill be up around 1000
if I can somehow middle the game and the Saints win by 5 6 or 7 I will be at almost 2k for the week.
I ran the numbers through sportsdatabase.com and found that
since 2005 there have been 84 home teams that were between a 4 and 5 point favorite
During those 84 games 49 (58.3%) have ended up a 3 points or less (So that would be a Vikings Win)
25 (29.765) over 7 points Saints win.
AND 10 times (11.90%) have been middled!!!!!
So lets hope for a middle.
I do not think it is playing scared to try and middle the game. I can tell you this if I could not middle the game properly I would not have played just to hedge my bet after getting advice from SBR.
My prediction for tonight is this however.
SAINTS WIN BIG
TAKE THE SAINTS LAY THE POINTS.
Everyone who said if I wanted to hedge I was betting to big, you are mistaken, I just like to have insurance when I am having a great week like I am.
So
as of now I got 344 to win 892 if the Saints win by 5
So I then took the Vikings and bought them to +7.5 for 260 to make 200
I did to make sure I would be up over a dime for the week no matter what.
If I win the game buy 5 I will be up like 1650,
If the Vikings win Ill be up around 1000
if I can somehow middle the game and the Saints win by 5 6 or 7 I will be at almost 2k for the week.
I ran the numbers through sportsdatabase.com and found that
since 2005 there have been 84 home teams that were between a 4 and 5 point favorite
During those 84 games 49 (58.3%) have ended up a 3 points or less (So that would be a Vikings Win)
25 (29.765) over 7 points Saints win.
AND 10 times (11.90%) have been middled!!!!!
So lets hope for a middle.
I do not think it is playing scared to try and middle the game. I can tell you this if I could not middle the game properly I would not have played just to hedge my bet after getting advice from SBR.
My prediction for tonight is this however.
SAINTS WIN BIG
TAKE THE SAINTS LAY THE POINTS.