Correlated Parlays in Baseball

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  • dynamite140
    SBR MVP
    • 07-05-08
    • 4958

    #1
    Correlated Parlays in Baseball
    I am not talking about taking a favorite -1.5 and the over parlay or the underdog +1.5 and the under parlay because those bets are not allowed. I read something along the lines of if the home team wins, it usually goes under. If the road team wins, it goes over. Is there any truth to this? Because most games i see in baseball more often than not does end this way. If the home team wins, usually the game will go under since they have 3 less at bats. If road team wins, home team gets an additional 3 at bats while they are down for them to produce some runs since they are losing.

    Now i know it would be bad when the favorite wins but they go over but does anyone know the stats of favorites winning and under along with dogs winning and the over?

    I would think betting this be a better alternative than say if you wanted to take a favorite on the runline? If you can get a home favorite on the runline for +120, wouldn't it be a better idea to take the Home Team ML and parlay them with the Under? Usually the payout is going to be at least +180 for parlaying the home team with the under and that is assuming the home team is a good size favorite. If the underdog is a big underdog, it would be a better payout. I recalled the Royals were at home against the yankees and +200 dogs. Well taking the Royals the home team with the under gave you +500. And if you take an away team with them being an underdog and going over usually gives usually +300 payout as well.

    Also, does anyone have a stat this year on what are the number of games that end in

    Road Team Win/Over
    Road Team Win/Under
    Home Team Win/Over
    Home Team Win/Under


    I would have to just assume the combination that hits the most is something like

    Home Team Win/Under
    Road Team Win/Over
    Home Team Win/Over
    Road Team Win/Under

    I know this is not new stuff because i read something about this in a forum. But if you just blindly take 3 parlays and take 3 home teams whether they are favorite or not and the under parlayed or take 3 parlays and take 3 road teams and the over parlayed, you would show a profit with hitting 1 of the parlays.

    Anyone have any thoughts on this or info?
  • dynamite140
    SBR MVP
    • 07-05-08
    • 4958

    #2
    Anyone else?
    Comment
    • blackbart
      SBR MVP
      • 12-04-07
      • 3833

      #3
      when the home team wins, they dont usually bat in the 9th, therefore it is 1/18 less runs scored than should be.
      when the road team wins the home team bats in the 9th so you will have more runs scored long term.
      this results in home and und or road and over being correlated.
      Comment
      • Bluehorseshoe
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 07-13-06
        • 15009

        #4
        You keep posting this. Why don't you do the numbers and figure it out instead of expecting someone to do it for you?
        Comment
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