Financial Markets: 1st Trading Day of 2008

[Dark Horse]

Solar is going to be a great short, trust me on that. It's all hype with purely speculative earnings. Many are trading with P/E's above 200. This has a dot com bubble written all over it. When it crashes; I'm going to make as big of a score as I did on MCI when that went bust.

mmm, btw, I heard on the radio today that for the 1st time in US history every state in the union recorded a temperature BELOW 20 degrees somewhere in the state. One has to love that global warming!

Go tell that to the Europeans and Chinese. I understand there could be corporate resistance in the US, which is why I don't buy US solar stocks. (after seven years of Bush the US in many fields is no longer the leader. This is one of them. Get used to following world trends, instead of setting them.)

Btw, if anyone is in denial about global warming, I'm cool with that. There's always Under Armour coldgear.

[CHALKbreaker]

There is no question solar is big over seas. I just think it's WAY over priced. With P/E's over 200 on many of them, ANY bad news and the thing is going have a dramatic correction. I have not yet played solar short, I'm just biding my time, as soon it will be a great one to short. Much like Dry Ships (DRYS) was in 2007 when it made that insane speculative run up to $125.


I'm a total global warming denier. Now that over 400 major cities across the world have set all time LOW temperatures in 2007, and the 100 year trend that global warming fanatics keep siting has actually reversed and went down the last 10 years, I just LOVE to hear them explain it. It's makes for good comedy. 30 years ago the same clowns wrote article after article about the coming ice age, and a global freezing.

[thebigguy]

Yes I agree but is not the weather much stranger these days then it was 10 years ago? or is it just the fact that it is harder to remember 10 years ago?

[Dark Horse]

Chalkbreaker, global warming creates extreme weather patterns.

In any case, SOLF is up another 8% in pretrading.

[BrentCrude]

The last 10 or so decades economically in the USA.

This short and simple webpage by a Ron Paul kind of economist says it all. www.afr.org/editorials/krautkramer/072904.htm

[DrunkenLullaby]

I'm a total global warming denier. Now that over 400 major cities across the world have set all time LOW temperatures in 2007,

Honestly, you really shouldn't be investing in anything other than higher education.

[Dark Horse]

Man... I thought was too late to get in on AKNS after yesterday's 47% gain (mentioned here). Today they are +31% on top of that. That's like handing out free money.

[Dark Horse]

A step ahead of the news.

Solarfun shares hit all-time high after signing of $230M wafer supply contract
January 03, 2008: 11:04 AM EST

BOSTON, Jan. 3, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Shares of Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ:SOLF) rose Thursday after the China-based manufacturer of photovoltaic cells, modules and ingots said it signed three wafer supply contracts totaling $230 million over a seven year period.

Shares were up 8.1% at $38.90 on volume of over 4.5 million shares. The stock hit an all-time high of $40.19 in intraday trading.

Under the agreements, Solarfun will receive a predetermined amount of wafers beginning in January 2008 with volumes reaching over 30 MW per year in 2011. The prices will be fixed with a declining price structure throughout the term of the contract.

[jstblaze]

mmm, btw, I heard on the radio today that for the 1st time in US history every state in the union recorded a temperature BELOW 20 degrees somewhere in the state. One has to love that global warming!

It is "Climate Change", global warming is simply a term repeatedly used by the unitelligent masses, and occasionally the also unintelligent politicians.

[Dark Horse]

On the radar for May. UA coming out with a new shoe line. That's some advanced design!

http://www.underarmour.com/prototype/

They've got the coldgear down, but now the music is getting good too.

http://www.underarmour.com/

[CHALKbreaker]

OK, maybe all you Global warming fanatic can explain how Mars also is experiencing temperature increases, or how all you guys were wrong of the global freezing you touted in the 70's that was suppose to happen in 30 years?


I'm just wondering. I don't have any political affiliation. I just laugh when I hear all you guys who think your so smart, and have an explanation for everything to explain the dogma that is put out for your religion.


In any event; I am not short in ANY solar stock YET. Playing the markets is all about reading the tea leaves. I make a living as a trader, and all I do is short sell. I have been called every name in the book, so you guys can call me whatever you want; I don't care. I have heard it all. People hate shorters in general, because most buy into hype, and loose their ass when a hype stock crashes, while the shorter is the one cashing in huge.

[Dark Horse]

Nothing wrong with short selling. Checks and balances are necessary. But to short exclusively is very cynical. You know why? Because if everybody did so the market could never go up, and the economy would stall. Better to ride the elevator both ways.

[CHALKbreaker]

Of course, but not everyone does short. In fact very few do. MANY more buy long exclusively then those like me who short exclusively. So yeah; its all about checks and balances. I never advocate people to short. To me its all about making $$$, and I find the easiest way to make $$$ is by shorting. If you find it easier to make it by investing long, God bless you. Everyone has their own niche.


Yes, I'm cynical by nature. That's how I bet sports as well. Just find a game that is a huge hype team, and that the majority of the public is on, and bet the other side.

[Dark Horse]

There's a time to buy and a time to short. It requires the same pattern recognition, so why not do both? I would disagree that there only are a few shorters, though. It's rather popular.

[CHALKbreaker]

Rather few who do it exclusively DH.
I could play it both ways, but it just goes against my personal style. I disagree that the pattern recognition is the same. My analysis always finds it easier to pin point a stock that will crash (or correct significantly) then one that will take off. While I think its much easier for a business to have things go bad then it is for them to go good. Thats why so many business fail. Again; I don't advocate anything, or take pleasure in others failure. It's just about making $$$ to me.

[Dark Horse]

I'll short the Dow as a whole (DIA) on the 18th for about ten days. See ya there.

[CHALKbreaker]

Does Jan option expiration have something to do with that play, I assume?


I honestly think the dow is going to be down in 2008. It's an election year for one, and both parties always bring out fear on the street, no matter what candidate is leading. Also every talking head analyst on TV says the dow will be up in their 2008 predictions by about a 9/1 margin. Normally thats a great sign that it will be down!

[Dark Horse]

It looks like it will be a tough year for the economy.

But good for the solar sector.

[CHALKbreaker]

We'll see about that DH. I'll post on one of these threads when I go short, or open some puts, in solar. JASO is another solar stock that's doing very well for you guys into those. Its a China based solar company, and up a ton like many of the others that have been mentioned.

Just be aware that you always want to be on the train BEFORE these run up stocks go crazy, and that you are taking a lot of risk getting on board after its left the station!

[buztah]

In SBUX here at 18.15. Chart says bounce time next week. Still long SHLD.

[DrunkenLullaby]

I'm just wondering. I don't have any political affiliation. I just laugh when I hear all you guys who think your so smart, and have an explanation for everything to explain the dogma that is put out for your religion.

indeed, my religion is science. Damn all those dogmatic scientists!

P.S. When it comes to the economy, I hope everybody is ready for the STAGflation party. It's inevitable after today's jobs reports.

[CHALKbreaker]

I agree with you on that Lullaby.
This economy is sitting on MAJOR inflation threats since they keep giving away the dollar with these interest rate cuts, and if employment starts getting hit (like it was showing in today's job report) your going to see possible stagflation, which is the ultimate economic nightmare. Bad time for this economy, but GREAT opportunities for the shorters!


That's fine if you believe global warming. All I ask is that you be respectful to those who oppose it. For all the world class scientist your side can put up, there are MANY top scientist on the other side...You can read the report that was just released from a group of world scientist who debunk the theories. You can say they are wrong, but your side may very well be too. Some of the very best scientific consensus at the time is often later to be proven totally wrong.


Best of luck with your trading...
Some of my positions are looking goooood today!

[DrunkenLullaby]

I disagree with the contention that there are anywhere near an equal number of scientists on either side of the argument. I think it's a matter of media presentation that it ever appears that way. The reason it gets my hackles up is that those of us who believe in global warming can try to do all the right things for the environment and yet have our efforts completely negated by those who don't.

That all being said,

Loving my puts on Discover today!

[CHALKbreaker]

Never said there was = numbers on the other side. Only that there are MANY prominent (ie..NOT crack pots) on the other side. many former NASA scientists. I have no problem with trying to make the world a better and less polluted place. Just don't think the GW science has much merit to it.

Many of my puts are looking good. CFC was my gift that kept giving in 07 with puts. I exercised some of the options, and just have been loving it, as the company just keeps getting slammed.

[Destroyer]

Lone trader caused 100 dollar price for oil

.

[Dark Horse]

Market taking a beating today. Red numbers all across. Among the few exceptions? SOLF (holding its own) and AKNS (up), mentioned here on the first trading day of the New Year.


Monday things will probably bounce back quite a bit, but the overall period is negative.

[isetcap]

It is refreshing to see some objective viewpoints on the topic of global warming/climate change. I for one do not subscribe to the "overwhelming" evidence provided by the machinations of various theorists but prefer to take a more pragmatic view in that change is necessary but the devastation predicted is not inevitable. It is not surprising that a more intelligent discussion of this topic would be found in a thread focusing on world economic markets.

As for the fiscal side of the discussion, I am quick to back the statement that green technoligies are indeed the next tech explosion and subsequent bubble burst. More important is recognizing that we are seeing the infancy right now and many people made enormous amounts of money by getting in and out of tech at the right time. There will be overvaluation for sure but it has not come yet for most of these stocks and there will be many new high-flyers in the next 5 years. Therefore my stance would tend toward Dark Horse for the next 16 months or so before I'd start considering Chalk on this industry. Either way I'm sure both will be fine as this is a wonderful market for making money.

[Dark Horse]

What a start to 2008! lol

Takes some balls to trade in this market. If the buyers come in on Monday to pick up the great deals now available, they'll force the short sellers out of their positions and this market could swing back 300 pts.

[isetcap]

What a start to 2008! lol

Takes some balls to trade in this market. If the buyers come in on Monday to pick up the great deals now available, they'll force the short sellers out of their positions and this market could swing back 300 pts.

It is classic! A pogo-stick market right now. This kind of uncertainty is dreamy for people who are close to the action.

[HAPPY BOY]

FVCK! my 401k must have dumped 10k today

[ChampDog]

APPLE, went South Bad and is not being saved by after hours at time of this post.... Thoughts ??? 179.50
Post Time 3:00 pm Pacific

[CHALKbreaker]

Today was awesome for pretty much ALL of my Jan put option plays. I might dump some on Monday just to take profit; as everything was beaten down today. Buyers jumping in Monday would seem likely.


A trader friend of mine who is also very successful told me about Nova Gold (NG) last week. I was tempted to tail him, and buy some, but it just goes against my style of trading. Anyway; check it out. Basically it was the only thing up big today, and was also up huge yesterday.


Champdog: Apple is a great stock if you are a long term player. If I recall correct; it has never been down over any 4 month span the past 6 years. Not sure where you bought in, but if it was a long term buy, just hold on, and it will be fine. People still love their I-pods, I-phones..The company is a profit generating MACHINE..The sky is not falling bud

[ChampDog]

I'm good Chalk, I bought the stock to hold long term back in Oct. at $156.

Looked at (NG) what the heck happened on the 26th ov Nov. ???

26-Nov-07 14.80 14.81 9.11 9.48 20,541,200 9.48

Today was awesome for pretty much ALL of my Jan put option plays. I might dump some on Monday just to take profit; as everything was beaten down today. Buyers jumping in Monday would seem likely.


A trader friend of mine who is also very successful told me about Nova Gold (NG) last week. I was tempted to tail him, and buy some, but it just goes against my style of trading. Anyway; check it out. Basically it was the only thing up big today, and was also up huge yesterday.


Champdog: Apple is a great stock if you are a long term player. If I recall correct; it has never been down over any 4 month span the past 6 years. Not sure where you bought in, but if it was a long term buy, just hold on, and it will be fine. People still love their I-pods, I-phones..The company is a profit generating MACHINE..The sky is not falling bud

[CHALKbreaker]

Champ: HA HA..Yeah that's a funny story..
Just goes to show you that you can find good and bad companies just with your own experience; and make profit off it!


NG had some sort of environmental court loss, I believe, in Nov. I'll have to read the whole diatribe my buddy sent me in the e-mail. He was all over it not to long after the big fall saying it was a fluke, and that it would rebound. I guess the ruling has been appealed, and they won. OF COURSE I did not play it. I pretty much solely short or play puts. Practically takes an act of God for me to buy into something, LOL. He's done very well though (bought in around $7.00), so I'm happy for him.

[buztah]

In SBUX here at 18.15. Chart says bounce time next week. Still long SHLD.

Out SBUX in the 20.30s.