Master Forum List of Methods that are +EV versus the Closing Number

[ATX]

there is a lot of stuff that works blind. more for the handicappers than the modelers.

opening numbers are a different animal and betting into them isn't optimal until one has quite a bit of experience.

one of the most fundamental practices that I've used over the last 10+ years is knowing consensus numbers, why they are what they are, and what to do with them on a specific game by game basis.

[ATX]

Blind fundamental number one: anytime you have both SIA and Sportsbook.com consensus numbers over 62% on an under, betting the over, even at market average is +EV. shopping around obviously makes this a very lucrative angle, and I almost always look for the best vig instead of a better number. tends to show more profitability later in a season than early. this isn't a recent trend, it's a decade-long trend.

I haven't paid attention to it on NCAA totals because of their limits, and some NFL years are better than others, but NBA and MLB is golden.

[tanner40]

Do you take line movement into consideration? For example if 63% on the under but it drops 3 points or half a run in bases. Does that scare you away from the play?