Indy +600 to win SB, Awesome Value!

[matskralc]

Not only do I not rate Dallas and Green Bay "quite a bit" higher than Jacksonville, but I actually rate Jacksonville slightly ahead of both of them. I guess I put more emphasis on strength of schedule and recent play than you do.

And the public would place more emphasis on "oh, it's the Cowboys!!" than you do on the Jaguars' SoS or recent play. Especially if the Cowboys blow somebody out of the water in the divisional round at home (very likely that TB/SEA/NYG/WAS/MIN would be) and then easily handle one of the others or GB at home again.

[LT Profits]

Risk free? What happens in your scenario if Jax loses in the Super Bowl?

WOW, that was stupid of me wasn't it?

I guess I have been up too long and need some sleep. I should have concluded that if the Jags get to the Super Bowl, I fully expect them to win it, which I alluded to when I said they should be favored over any NFC team. Still, it was a stupid mathematical mistake. My apologies.

[LT Profits]

And the public would place more emphasis on "oh, it's the Cowboys!!" than you do on the Jaguars' SoS or recent play. Especially if the Cowboys blow somebody out of the water in the divisional round at home (very likely that TB/SEA/NYG/WAS/MIN would be) and then easily handle one of the others or GB at home again.

Well, if Jacksonville does get to the Super Bowl and you are right about Dallas/Green Bay being favored, it would set up a rare instance where I actually bet MORE on Jax on the Super Bowl ML, as I think the value would be insane there.