who ya got?
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welp, you'll get bama/col and like it.
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Florida Atlantic and Memphis. Go crazy with that one.Comment -
I looked at that game and I got to say the line looks spot on. Memphis is a pretty live dog but coaching and a motivated bowl appearance all go to Fl Atl. Tough call.Comment -
Alabama -3.5 vs Colorado : o/u 51
Alabama (6-6)
SEC
sos: 23
2-9 ATS
Colorado (6-6)
Big-12
sos 32
6-6 ATS
The Independence bowl features a traditional SEC powerhouse vs a big-12 team thats been fighting through a lot of adversity over the last few years. Coach Dan Hawkins came over from Boise and had the buffalos play a bit over their head at times including a huge win over Oklahoma and a big win at texas tech. Nick saban needs no introduction, hes slightly less lovable than herpes, but hes got a big name in the college football world and big things were expected of him when he signed a multi-million dollar contract to coach the Crimson Tide. Bama comes into this game riding a 4 game losing streak that is highlited by a loss, at home, to La-Monroe.
Alabama
Bama is typically known for a tough run defense and this year they held to form ranking 34th i the nation vs the rush allowing 3.48 ypc and 128 yards per game. The bama defensive front has been fairly average in getting to the passer posting about 1.90 sacks per contest. This unit is led by 6-4 sr DE wallacegilberry who had 9 sacks on the year and also playe dwell vs the run. the unit, overall, is fairly young and they've got decent speed as a unit. The line figures to hold their own vs an oline that doesnt have a great deal of size in Colorado. The bama pass defensive isnt too bad either. This unit finished 2007 ranked as the #39 overall pass defense (yards per game) in the nation, giving up a little over 212 yards per game through the air against a schedule that ranked 23rd. The bright spot for this secondary was their ability to create some turn overs, bama ended up allowing 17 Tds and equalled that total posting 17 INTs. JR Safety Rashad Johnson proved to be the play maker of this group snatching 6 ints on the year. This Tide defense is a tough group and coach saban takes a lot of pride in his ability to coach defense and particularly the secondary which finished 28th overall in pass efficiency defense.
On offense the tide really struggled this season. They are led by future first round pick, and former hs all american andre smith who goes 6-4 about 350. I expect smith to have little trouble vs the undersized col front and for bama to go to his side quite a bit. Getting the ball most often will likely be terry grant who started the year strong, but seemed to fade as the year dragged on. Grant is a bit undersized and may be better used as a 3rd down type back on most teams, but bama is thin in the offensive backfield. Grant is a guy that the tide will get into the passing game from time to time, but dont expect more than a few catches and some modest gains from this team that doesnt seem to get much out of their screens. overall the tide rushers take decent care of the ball having only lost 7 fumbles on the season. When the tide choose to throw the ball, bama fans typically close their eyes....then again, John Parker wilson does the same thing, so maybe its just a bama thing? Parker-Wilison finished with a disappointing 15/11 TD/INT ratio and a 54% completion percentage. John found him self ranked the 97th best passer in the country in 2007, just where auburn fans hoped hed be. As a unit the bama passing offense ranked 60th and a large part of their success was 6-3 sr wideout DJ hall who will likely be a first day selection in the 2008 draft. Physically, Hall should look like a man amongst boys in this contest and i expect him to be doubled most of the night. Matt Caddell lines up opposite Hall much of the year but hes simply failed to live up to the expectations he had when he arrived on campus with the 2003 recruiting class. caddell doesnt have great size, but he did show some improvement this season, over last, but he isnt likely to be a big game changer for the tide in this matchup. Bama doesnt do a great job protecting the passer, but i really dont think the col front is much of a threat to get to wilson in this game unless he just holds on to the ball too long.
Colorado
The Col defense plays hard, but they arent a group that will 'wow' anyone. The strength of the buffs defense is their run defense where they rank in the top 35 in yards per game despite allowing nearly 4 yards a rush. Jordon Dizon is considered one of the best couple college linebackers in the country and he should be all over the field in this one. The big problem this front 7 lacks is their lack of ability to put any pressure on the Qb without bringing an etra man or two which they really dont like to do. Col only has 19 sacks this year in a conference that is pass happy. JR George Hypolite is their only hope off the edge, the buff will need him to disrupt some plays in the back field and get bama into some long yardage situations. The main problem this defense has faced has been with thier secondary who has allowed teams to pass for an overall rating of 127.96 which leaves this group ranked 70th in the country. This team has been able to force 15 INTs, but they struggle to stop big plays. Col ranks 101rst in the nation in yards per game allowed through the air. Hall should give this group a lot of trouble if wilson is even semi-on in this one. On offense the buffs wont excite anyone a lot either. they rank just below bama in rushing the ball at 150 yards a game and about 3.90 a carry. The thing this offense does have is a studd sr play maker at RB. Hugh charles managed 5.3 ypc and found his way into the endzone 8 times. hes a bit undersized, but he his the hole quickly and he runs hard once hes got his hands on the rock. Charles also put grabbed 27 catches posting nearly 10 yards a grab. he will be the key to the Col offense in this years Independence bowl. At qb, coaches sone, Cody hawkins is a decent player. he doesnt have a gun, but he moves pretty well and he doesnt give up on many plays. he'll make his mistakes, as most freshman do, but he has also shown the ability to lead some huge drives and make some plays in key situations. this isnt a freshman that will be overwhelmed playing an SEC team. The team ranked a modest 56th in and country passing and they finished on a high note smashing the cornhuskers in the 2nd half of their season finally. The best thing this group does is they dont take a lot of plays for a loss. they take what they can get or hawkins will get rid of the ball and live to see another down; the buffalos only allowed 16 sacks on the season.
special teams:
punt returns:
alabama ranks 12th
colorado ranks 38th
kick off returns:
Alabama ranks 63rd
Colorado ranks 30th
net punting:
Alabama ranks 87th
Colorado ranks 58th
fgs:
Alabama (Tiffin):71%
Colorado (Eberhart): 65%
Stats of note:
Alabama: 4.58 penalties a game
Colorado: 7.00 penalties per game
Alabama +.33 turnovers per game
Colorado -.33 turnovers per game
3rd down conversion offense:
Alabama: 80th
Colorado:100th
3rd down conversion defense:
Alabama: 62nd
Colorado:38th
my picks:
Alabama -3.5
Over 51
(mofome)Comment -
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I'm not gonna be betting the game but Fla Atl looks good.Comment
