Mods or Ganch?

[the outlaw]

Any word on the ML converter? I know it was discussed at some point. Is it still on the way?

[Bill Dozer]

Yes, it's still in the works...will ask about the unveiling.

[the outlaw]

Thanks.

[jjgold]

What do you mean ML converter?

[jjgold]

Here are some basics to know

Money Line Break Even

-110 52.38%
-120 54.55%
-130 56.52%
-140 58.33%
-150 60.00%
-160 61.54%
-170 62.96%
-180 64.29%
-190 65.52%
-200 66.67%
-210 67.74%
-220 68.75%
-230 69.70%
-240 70.59%
-250 71.43%
-260 72.22%
-270 72.97%
-280 73.68%
-290 74.36%
-300 75.00%
-310 75.61%
-320 76.19%
-330 76.74%
-340 77.27%
-350 77.78%
-360 78.26%
-370 78.72%
-380 79.17%
-390 79.59%
-400 80.00%


Money Line Break Even

+100 50.00%
+110 47.62%
+120 45.45%
+130 43.48%
+140 41.67%
+150 40.00%
+160 38.46%
+170 37.04%
+180 35.71%
+190 34.48%
+200 33.33%
+210 32.26%
+220 31.25%
+230 30.30%
+240 29.41%
+250 28.57%
+260 27.78%
+270 27.03%
+280 26.32%
+290 25.64%
+300 25.00%
+310 24.39%
+320 23.81%
+330 23.26%
+340 22.73%
+350 22.22%
+360 21.74%
+370 21.28%
+380 20.83%
+390 20.41%
+400 20.00%

[NFL 1st String]

are these the expected win percentage when receiving those odds?

[jjgold]

break even percentages

[HedgeHog]

Will their be a FB and BB converter? Not a lot of Football left.

I'm assuming the converter is for reg lines to money lines. JJ seems confused as to what the calculator would do.

[jjgold]

http://www.smartcapper.com/tool_nfl_point_spread_to_money_line_converter.html

[jjgold]

PRO AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
MONEY LINE CONVERSION CHART
---------------------------

FAVORED BY NFL MONEYLINE COLLEGE MONEYLINE
---------- ------------- -----------------
2 -130/+110 -130/+110
2½ -140/+120 -140/+120
3 -155/+135 -155/+135
3½ -175/+155 -175/+165
4 -200/+170 -185/+165
4½ -220/+180 -200/+170
5 or 5½ -240/+190 -220/+180
6 -270/+210 -240/+190
6½ -300/+220 -270/+210
7 -330/+250 -300/+220
7½, 8 or 8½ -360/+280 -330/+250
9 or 9½ -400/+300 -360/+280
10 -450/+325 -400/+300
11 -550/+375 -450/+325
12 -600/+400 -500/+350
13 -650/+450 -550/+375

[Ganchrow]

http://www.smartcapper.com/tool_nfl_...converter.html

The major problem with this being that (like all simple money line to spread converters I've seen), it's not very good.

The issue is that there's a lot more to look at other than just spread when calculating a money lines (in football for example the total, home vs away, frequency of touchdowns vs. field goals, strength of running game versus passing game, etc). These other factors become increasingly more important as the spread increases in magnitude. The problem is that there just isn't enough data to come up with reasonable statistical meaningful equivalence, hence the nearly worthless spread money line conversions tools that are out there.

I'm working on just one such tool (NBA and NFL) for SBR. I'm hoping it will ultimately be a little better than what's already out there in how it predicts likely scoring distributions (i.e., a little more intelligently). I was told Bill I was going to have it released a couple of weeks ago, but ... well I just thought it sucked way too hard (much like the smartcapper tool).

My philosophy is that I'd rather release a not totally useless product late than a almost totally useless product early.

Soon though.