I still love the Netherlands to win the World Cup and the way the second stage is shaping up looks to be very favorable to the Netherlands chances.
Italk has lost and wont be moving on. Had Italy won today, they would have likely opened against the Netherlands. Now the way it is, the only real good team that could end up on the same side of the draw as the Netherlands is the Brazil vs Spain winner.
I believe whoever that turns out to be, the Netherlands will have the big advantage in the round of 8.
First, The Netherlands open up against Slovakia which I think will be a pretty easy win for them. I just dont believe Slovakia has the talent to stay with us in the knockout round. Not taking anything away from this team, as it did beat Italy today.
Still, Slovakia started today in last place in their group and even with the big win against the defending champions they still only finish second in their group. We also have to admit that Italy was a much older team now and was never really a contender to win this thing. Italy didnt win a single game in this years Cup. That may be the first time ever for a defending champion.
Next, The Netherlands will get their only real test IMO before the championship. That will be in the round of 8 as they likely face the Brazil/Spain winner. However, the Netherlands will be coming into that game fresh having just beat Slovakia while whoever they face will likely be coming off a draining dogfight and that potential Brazil/Spain matchup is actually a battle of the number 1 and 2 FIFA ranked teams in the world. ( facing each other in the first round of knockout stage ??????? )
I admit that will be a serious test, but if the Netherlands can survive that, then in the round of 4 they will either face Uruguray, South Korea, USA, or Ghana. My guess would be Uruguray be whoever it is, the Netheralnds assuming they get that far would be the huge favorite.
Then on to the championship where my best guess is they would face Portugal, or Spain if Spain ends up on that side of the draw. If that happens nothing much changes as in the above Scenario, it would be Brazil/Portugal instead of Brazil/Spain.
All in All, I think the round of 8 matchup between the Netherlands vs. Brazil/Spain/Portugal will decide who wins the world cup and I believe the Netheralnds if they win today and win Group E as is heavily expected will be the in a great spot to take this.
Remember this team has a great offense and has given up 0 goals so far in the Cup. I think this team is the real deal and there is no way that I can see how +800 is not big time + EV.
I have been on the Netherlands from the beginning and that play was posted at +1400 before the first game of the world cup was ever played. Not generally the type to double up the bet, but I just cant beleive that this team is still getting +800 the way this draw has worked out to be so favorable to them. That of course assumes they win Group E which I realize is not 100% but its pretty close. Even if they lose today, they will surely win group E.
I am feeling pretty good about the above scenario, remember even with a draw the Netherlands will win group E. They will have 7 points and the Japan/Denmark winner will only have 6.
If they lose today, they still have 6 so it comes down to goal differentail which they are +3 now, Japan is even, and Denmark is -1, so unless the Netherlands loses by 2 or more they will win Group E and the above Scenario is valid.
Italk has lost and wont be moving on. Had Italy won today, they would have likely opened against the Netherlands. Now the way it is, the only real good team that could end up on the same side of the draw as the Netherlands is the Brazil vs Spain winner.
I believe whoever that turns out to be, the Netherlands will have the big advantage in the round of 8.
First, The Netherlands open up against Slovakia which I think will be a pretty easy win for them. I just dont believe Slovakia has the talent to stay with us in the knockout round. Not taking anything away from this team, as it did beat Italy today.
Still, Slovakia started today in last place in their group and even with the big win against the defending champions they still only finish second in their group. We also have to admit that Italy was a much older team now and was never really a contender to win this thing. Italy didnt win a single game in this years Cup. That may be the first time ever for a defending champion.
Next, The Netherlands will get their only real test IMO before the championship. That will be in the round of 8 as they likely face the Brazil/Spain winner. However, the Netherlands will be coming into that game fresh having just beat Slovakia while whoever they face will likely be coming off a draining dogfight and that potential Brazil/Spain matchup is actually a battle of the number 1 and 2 FIFA ranked teams in the world. ( facing each other in the first round of knockout stage ??????? )
I admit that will be a serious test, but if the Netherlands can survive that, then in the round of 4 they will either face Uruguray, South Korea, USA, or Ghana. My guess would be Uruguray be whoever it is, the Netheralnds assuming they get that far would be the huge favorite.
Then on to the championship where my best guess is they would face Portugal, or Spain if Spain ends up on that side of the draw. If that happens nothing much changes as in the above Scenario, it would be Brazil/Portugal instead of Brazil/Spain.
All in All, I think the round of 8 matchup between the Netherlands vs. Brazil/Spain/Portugal will decide who wins the world cup and I believe the Netheralnds if they win today and win Group E as is heavily expected will be the in a great spot to take this.
Remember this team has a great offense and has given up 0 goals so far in the Cup. I think this team is the real deal and there is no way that I can see how +800 is not big time + EV.
I have been on the Netherlands from the beginning and that play was posted at +1400 before the first game of the world cup was ever played. Not generally the type to double up the bet, but I just cant beleive that this team is still getting +800 the way this draw has worked out to be so favorable to them. That of course assumes they win Group E which I realize is not 100% but its pretty close. Even if they lose today, they will surely win group E.
I am feeling pretty good about the above scenario, remember even with a draw the Netherlands will win group E. They will have 7 points and the Japan/Denmark winner will only have 6.
If they lose today, they still have 6 so it comes down to goal differentail which they are +3 now, Japan is even, and Denmark is -1, so unless the Netherlands loses by 2 or more they will win Group E and the above Scenario is valid.