My official tour de france bet tracking thread

RageWizard · 06-17-10, 11:11 AM

Prologue: What are you kidding me, don't bother with this 4 mile race. If it rains, it could be good to watch however.

Stage 1,3,4,5: Cavindish will win atleast 3 of these if not all of them.

Stage 2: Too many mountains, don't bother.

Stage 6: Cavindish again, but only if you get decent odds, there are 4 cat 4 climbs, and he can't climb, but after the last climb, there is room for him to shine.

Stage 7, 8: Mid mountain stage with a mountain top finish, could go to anybody, watch for the schlecks or maybe some other climbers to get it.

Stage 9: First overclass climb of the race, with a descent to the finish, lay off and hope for wrecks.

Stage 10, 12: A mid mountain level race, again don't bet anybody.

Stage 11, 13: Look for Cavindish to win again here.

Stage 14: This could be the stage for old Contador, there is a overclass climb followed by a class 1 climb with a mountain top finish. It takes place a week before the end, and is one of the last chances to separate from the pack.

Stage 15, 16: A race with a overclass climb again, but with the descent to the finish, hope for rain and wrecks.

Stage 17: This one is taylor made for Alberto Contador, and it will be the one I would plunk the money down on for him to win.

Stage 18: Can you say Cavindish for the win?

Stage 19: Individual Time Trial, lay off unless there is a matchup investment that looks good. Oh, and if it is raining, totally layoff.

Stage 20: This one is Cavindishes for sure, especially if he hasn't won the green jersey.
Well that's it. Now as I am typing this, I see that Cavindish has crashed just today in the swiss race, so I will need some updates in the coming week to see if he is alright.

Emily_Haines · 06-17-10, 11:11 AM

How did you do last year on tour de France wagering?

RageWizard · 06-17-10, 11:15 AM

I started out going against Alberto Contador as seen above in my first post, but then cleaned up on my day to day wagers. All the wagers are listed above. You can take out the nathan's hot dog stuff, and still see a profit for me.

Emily_Haines · 06-17-10, 11:20 AM

LOL, never bet under in a hot dog eating contest

pavyracer · 06-17-10, 11:21 AM

Good luck!

RageWizard · 06-17-10, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by Emily_Haines

LOL, never bet under in a hot dog eating contest

yeah I know, but really 75 freaking hotdogs is sick even for a large family on a day in Coney Island.

RageWizard · 06-19-10, 10:58 PM

Ok above are my picks so far. Tomorrow I have Roman Kreuziger beating Lance Armstrong in the stage 9 time trial at the Tour de Swiss. Old Lance will probably ride well enough to take the yellow jersey home in the overall classification, but he won't beat Kreuziger's time tomorrow. I think the stage 9 standings will go like this: First place will be Cancellara because he is Swiss, and he is in good shape. Time trialing is his thing, and he won the prologue already. 2nd will go to Kreuziger, and 3rd will go to Old ass Lance.

Well that's the way I see it in my crystal balls, so you might as well right it down in the history books already. Good luck everyone an have a great Father's day.

RageWizard · 06-22-10, 02:53 PM

Old ass Lance was able to finish before my boy Roman Sunday, so I am already 0 - 1 even before the Tour de France even starts. I think the intermitant rain showers effed me pretty good. Lance was in at about the time I thought for him, but Roman was atleast 45 seconds slower than I thought. I think the wet roads played a role, and I should have listened to my own rules for investing it this sport. Never invest in a Time trial when the roads will be wet at any time during the event.

RageWizard · 06-26-10, 09:05 AM

The odds are starting to trickle in now, so I adding another one to the mix. I am still waiting for the green jersey odds to come out for the race.

Wade Dwayne · 06-26-10, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by RageWizard

The odds are starting to trickle in now, so I adding another one to the mix. I am still waiting for the green jersey odds to come out for the race.

Cavendish heavy favourite for the green jersey. So im guessing he is all good after the crash?

RageWizard · 06-29-10, 09:48 AM

Yeah, Cavendish is fine. Hard to believe if you actually saw the crash, but I have read a couple of interviews and he says he's good to go. We will find out July 4th with the first stage of the race.

RageWizard · 06-30-10, 10:16 AM

I added a couple of more futures to the investments that I already have out there.

Team BMC have George Hincapie and Cadel Evans on this new American team, and they have done pretty well this year during the season. Team SKY has Bradley Wiggins, but they just don't have the experience that is on the BMC team, with that and the fact that they have cobblestones this year near the end of stages, and with BMC getting odds, I'll jump on it.

Cavendish would really like to win the green jersey to further his career. His only problem is old Thor Husvod (I think that's how you spell it) has a stranglehold on the green jersey. Sure Cavendish will win if not all of the final sprints for the stage, he will win 80 % of them, but he doesn't pick up the excuse me points out on the road that Thor will. Like last year, old Thor will try to take advantage of the sprints inbetween the mountains to pick up some cheap points in the green jersey classification, but with Cavendish getting some odds here again, I lay a small wager on him just in case he gets his shit together and picks up some cheapie points while out on the road this year early.

The final wager at first glance looks like a bet against Contador to win the entire race. Well you would think since Contador climbs the best, he would have more points than Schleck in that classification. Last year this was the case, but only by 5 points, and I can tell you that it usually doesn't happen that way. The reason is because as these 2 go up the mountain side, they will almost assuredly be connected at the hip for most of the way. Contador doesn't need to be the aggressive one which has me thinking that schleck will be just ahead for most of the mountain tops along the tour. Sure Contador will eventually jump on Andy, and take 5 minutes out of him, but with heavy odds on your side, take the Schleck to take the mountain classification over Contador.

RageWizard · 07-06-10, 05:32 PM

Here we go with some additional plays for the spreadsheet, and lets see how my picks are doing so far.

1. Alberto Contador to win overall -164 ($1000)

So far nothing is shocking, Cadel Evans has a 1'01" advantage so far and Andy Schelck has a 0'31" advantage as well. All the others infron of Contador won't be there for long, so for now I will wait until I see what happens on stage 7 to make sure that Contador has the legs for this year before I press the invesment, but for now everything is OK. Also just today Andy lost his brother Frank so it is looking a little better for Contador.

2. Cadel Evans (+159) ($100) to beat Ivan Basso in the overall.

Cadel is 2'40" ahead of Ivan so far, so this is going about as well as it can go. Only problem so far is that team BMC has lost a rider in the very first Prologue, this may or may not effect them later on when the mountain stages come around and they try to keep Cadel Evans in the hunt for the overall.

3. Mark Cavendish to win the green jersey (+120) ($50)

This one hasn't shown anything yet. Mark has yet to score any real points, and to make matters worse old Thor won today. This means Mark has to make up 62 points on Thor to get the lead. This means that Mark is up against the wall, and I expect them to come out tomorrow and ride like the pressure is on.

4. Team BMC (+134)($100) to beat team Sky in team classifications.

Well overall team BMC is down by 2'25" so far against team Sky, but I'm not worried yet. Team sky doesn't have the climbing power that team BMC has except for Bradley Wiggins, so I should know more about this play in about a week.

5. Andy Schleck (+241) ($100) to beat Contador in the Mountain climber classifications

This one techincally has started, but for the most part nothing has started, both of the contenders haven't scored a point yet. The only thing that worries me is that Andy has bit the road a couple of times now, and he is actually still ahead of Contador. Both of those things aren't good believe it or not, but like I said, this hasn't even started yet.

So now onto the fresh picks for tomorrow.

Cavendish (-230) ($100) to beat Thor Hushovd Stage 4.
Cavendish (-207) ($100) to beat Alessandro Petacchi Stage 4.
Like I said the pressure will be on Mark and team columbia tomorrow. If Mark can stay on his bike tomorrow, he takes atleast 1 of these, and probably both, which leaves me to my next investment.

Cavendish to win over 3.5 Stages (+205)($150) in the tour this year.

He still has 7 chances as I see it, so it won't be easy, but if he gets on track tomorrow and picks up the first win of the tour, he will be in decent shape after the first round of mountain stages. If he loses, or falls of his bike tomorrow, just about everything involving him will fail as far as long term investments go, so I would be investing heavily against him based on tomorrow's outcome in an effort to cover

mikejamm · 07-07-10, 03:22 AM

Nice info on the TDF!

Sunde91 · 07-07-10, 03:28 AM

Lance Armstrong

Bet the Farm

RageWizard · 07-08-10, 01:44 PM

Alrighty, since Frank Schleck bit the dust, and I don't believe that Cadel Evans can hang in the mountains with Contador, I am pressing my investment with Contador.

I am also in a wait and see mode for Cavendish to win over 3.5 stages this year. he got one today, but if he doesn't get the second tomorrow, I'm all over the under if they still have it up at Pinny. I was thinking about taking the under last night, but I took another look at the finish, and it seems that Petachhi just had the better lead out, that and the price is kind of steep for me to cancel out my earlier investment.

RageWizard · 07-09-10, 02:31 PM

After extensive studying, I am putting in a couple of "funzi" plays for tomorrow's stage.

RageWizard · 07-16-10, 01:59 PM

Well so far my daily picks for individual stages hasn't panned out, and today I picked contador to win the stage outright, and was stumped again even on a day where he tried to win. Its been that kind of tour for me so far.

Anyway, I will still make money if Contador doesn't fall off his bike. Basically every day from here on out, I will increase my contador pick and eat the odds because it is almost a done deal at this point.

tomorrow I will take Petacchi to beat Cavendish to the line of Stage 13 because there is a cat 3 climb that is too close to the finish for the sprinters who just want to win stages, to care about. Look for a breakway over the climb and a thus a who cares attitude from cavendish. Of course I thought this the other day on Stage 11, and he burned me there, but I think tomorrow's climb is enough to burn Cavendish out so that Petacchi can take him.

RageWizard · 07-16-10, 02:02 PM

I was looking over my losses, and I discovered that I gave myself a loss to Cavendish winning over 3.5 stages. I have since semi corrected this, and this play is almost anouther foregone conclusion like the overall winner.

mikejamm · 07-17-10, 08:17 AM

Pretty much have to agree with the general consensus here, without his lead out man Mark Renshaw, Cavendish will not have the man power to push for a Stage 13 victory and will want to conserve energy for the later stages like 18 which he can excel at as a sprinter.

RageWizard · 07-17-10, 06:35 PM

I just can't pick a winner on any stage events this year. Cavendish just eeekkked out a 2nd place just ahead of Petacchi.

Oh well, I am still adding $500 a day on Contador to win the entire race until they take it down over at Pinny.

RageWizard · 07-19-10, 05:38 PM

I got hammered up last night and passed out before I could go to Pinny and place my daily $500 on Contador. Today I'm back on track with the investment bus. At this point this is as close to a lock as there is going to be in sports, so I will keep putting the dough on as long as Pinny has the line for Contador winning up.

RageWizard · 07-20-10, 03:18 PM

I can't believe that Pinny still has the odds of Contador winning still up. This is a done deal at this point. I have wagered my usual $500 a day on this.

I also put $500 on Cavendish to win over 3.5 stages in this year's tour. Basically now this wager says that out of the 2 attempts he will most likely get, because he ain't winning Thursday thats for sure, and he ain't winning on Saturday in the time trial, so he can win on Friday, or Sunday and give me the money for -202. Not bad odds, when you consider that he will probably win both times.

RageWizard · 07-21-10, 04:51 PM

Yeah it is a rest day for the tour, but I'm not resting when they havefee money at Pinny available for me. I put my daily amount of $500 on Contador, and the payoff is getting low as everybody already knows that this is Contador's to lose. And by lose, he really needs to almost fall of his bike somewhere between now and Paris.

I am also putting $250 on Schleck (-108) to beat Contador tomorrow up the mountain. I haven't been doing well this year in my daily picks, so if this one fails, all of those Contador picks are an even bigger sure thing. I expect Andy to climb up the hill quicker than contador, but as long as he doesn't take over a minute from the spainard, Contador will win the tour in the time trial. Also Schleck and Contador are currently tied in the king of the mountains classification, so tomorrows climb will also decide that wager from a month ago since there are no more climbs in the tour, and they will surely not care until the last climb to step up the pressure on one another.

RageWizard · 07-22-10, 06:31 PM

Andy Schleck did beat Contador to the line today, well actually I think that Contador kind of gave him the win today. Not a bad thing to do since Andy paced him all the way up the mountain. Anyway, I win when Andy Schleck crossed the line first today in two ways. First Schleck to beat Contador up to the line, and then my wager from around a month ago with Schleck beating contador in the king of the mountains. As the day started, they were tied in the KOM standings, and since schleck beat contador, he gets more points.

Also in the last couple of days, Ivan Basso has been falling apart quicker than Cadel Evans has been falling apart so it looks like that wager will go my way as well. For a while there I had written it off.

Anyway, tomorrow I will put $100 on Cavendish (-110) to win the stage outright, and if he does, he will win over 3.5 times this year and bring me the money.

I also put my daily $500 on contador to win outright. Yeah this is the biggest lock of the year, and now the odds reflect it at (-2000) ouch, but it is still free money so I'll take it.

RageWizard · 07-23-10, 01:37 PM

OK, I'm starting to see some return on investment today with Cavendish winning his 4 th stage, and today's stage. Both of which I put investments on.

For tomorrow, I really think that Contador will be trying to win the stage. He has the yellow all sewn up like I have been telling you for the last week, and I hope you took advantage of it before Pinny took it down today, but he hasn't won a stage yet. The overall winner really likes to win at least 1 stage, and I think it has only happened a couple of times when the overall winner didn't win a stage. With that in mind, I am investing $100 on Cancellera not to win tomorrow (-122). I was looking for Contador odds, but they weren't there, they have a head to head with Contador and Denis Menchov, but Contador is 2 to 1, and I really think he wins it anyway, so bet on Cancellera not to win.

Dad · 07-23-10, 01:52 PM

Excellent thread. Good luck, Mr. Wizard.

RageWizard · 07-23-10, 04:06 PM

Yeah, I'm getting ready to collect this year. I played more than usual but contador has been a lock to win since about a week ago, and Pinny just kept keeping the play up, so I had to take it.

Really the only long term plays that I will lose are the Team BMC beating Team SKY.
And Cavendish won't win the green jersey even though he still has an outside shot at it.

I didn't do so well in the stage plays, although I have picked up my game here in the last couple of days, lets see how tomorrow goes before I start getting giddy.

RageWizard · 07-24-10, 04:46 PM

So Cancellara did win today and thus I lose on today's bet. I haven't been doing so good in the daily picks but since tomorrow will be the last day, I figure what the hell, why stop now.

Cavendish (-200) to win stage for $100
Petacchi to beat Dean (-139) to the line for $100.

That will do it for the Tour De France this year, and it will turn out to be another profitable year although the return on investment isn't going to be as good as last year. Still however I will make more this year because I invested much more. We all know that Contador will win tomorrow but I can't put it down in the win column yet until he carts his ass over the line in Paris. Well techincally I think he can actually fall off his bike in Paris as long as he does it within 3 kilometers of the finish.

RageWizard · 07-25-10, 03:03 PM

Well it is nice to end the tour with 2 winnng picks on today's final stage. My entire record is listed below. I have around a 33% return on investment this year which is great. Now I have more bank roll for football in the upcoming weeks.

RageWizard · 07-25-10, 06:04 PM

Well I hope I atleast helped 1 of yous out there this year. Last year I had around a 20% return on investment as shown in the very first post of the thread, and this year, I surprised myself and did 33% return on investment. Until I added the numbers, I also thought that I lost lots of money on my daily picks, but upon close investigation, it is revealed that I actually only lost a little bit. I guess I needed today's victorys in the final sprint to pull through.

Next year will be harder to predict as Schleck was definitly up for the challenge this year, and if his brother didn't get injured, and he didn't fvck up on one mountain stage shift of the gears, he would have had me crying for sure this year.

pavyracer · 07-25-10, 07:07 PM

Great job Wizard! Looks like you knew what you were doing. You kept unloading on the winner as the race progressed. But what if he fell off a cliff or got hit by a car?

RageWizard · 07-26-10, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Great job Wizard! Looks like you knew what you were doing. You kept unloading on the winner as the race progressed. But what if he fell off a cliff or got hit by a car?

I would have followed him over the cliff?

Really though, I was adding to contador once I was sure that he would win. It really was almost a lock at about stage 13. Contador was only 30 seconds behind, and he was thought to be a much better time trialist than Schleck. Schleck can climb as well as Contador, and the leaders rarely get caught in a place where they have to take chances. With all that though, I didn't think that Schleck could time trial as well as he did. Next year will be more difficult.