NFL props question

spliff · 11-04-07, 09:42 AM

15021 JACKSONVILLE +10½-300
15022 NEW ORLEANS -10½+240

is available at bookmaker

wack · 11-04-07, 09:54 AM

Cheers for that

Stumpage · 11-04-07, 09:59 AM

Wack, don't know if this will be useful to you, but SIA has New Orleans to win from 6 to 10 points at +400...Hope it helps.

Ganchrow · 11-04-07, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by wack

I think this is the best place to post this question, i am sure there are one or two who can answer this standing on their head.

I am looking for a book which spreads props like "Team x to win by 3 points". Pinny used to do a margin of victory market but don't seem to any more?

I am looking for a fair (I dont mind some juice) price on the NO Saints to win by exactly 10 points tonight. If anyone could help with the rough probability of this happening as well (from some figures I have seen I think its about 3-4% as a fair guess?) then that would be great. If there is a book that anyone knows that spreads these props, please tell me.

Thanks in advance.

From the 1990-2006 seasons, 4.072% (with a standard error of 0.564%) of teams favored by between 3 and 4 points have won by exactly 10. At zero-juice this would correspond to a money line of +2,356.

Based on the same data the fair 10½ point zero-vig market would be:

Jacksonville +10½ -273
New Orleans -10½ +273

Pinnacle is offering this same market with 2.703% vig at

Jacksonville +10½ -300
New Orleans -10½ +260

corresponding to a zero-vig price of ±270.

spliff · 11-04-07, 10:25 AM

great info

wack · 11-04-07, 12:45 PM

thanks for all contributions. Sorry to be a pain and you probably wont see this in time Ganch, but what about the chargers by 14? Cheers

RickySteve · 11-04-07, 03:01 PM

Ganch, how about the Cowboys by 26?