Yankees -350 a perfect example of why you don't lay chalk.

[pat venditto]

Anything can happen, especially in bases. Blew a 5 run lead in the 7th.

[mathdotcom]

And guys say hockey is unpredictable. -350 favorite never loses in pucks.

[durito]

No it's not.

[paco]

Roy Holliday to the pirates a week or so ago also

[Sunde91]

And guys say hockey is unpredictable. -350 favorite never loses in pucks.

Pens game 7?

[rm18]

Capitals game 7?

[pat venditto]

Durito for the average bettor and recreational bettor who is not betting correct stake sizes and does not know the math aspect of the game you have a better chance of winning not laying huge chalk. For guys like you okay you know what you're doing.Thats what i meant. Most here don't know what they're doing.

[ZetaPsi808]

patty i feel like a winner for not betting the yankees there

[pat venditto]

patty i feel like a winner for not betting the yankees there

[tullamore]

Patty blindly laying large chalk will get you in to trouble, but if one finds value in the line, then the chalk shouldn't matter.

[betplom]

Patty blindly laying large chalk will get you in to trouble, but if one finds value in the line, then the chalk shouldn't matter.

"Value" in a heavy moneyline favourite can only be achieved with a win, I personally don't believe there is any value in a losing bet on heavy chalk.

Ask Lou about this.

[mathdotcom]

"Value" in a heavy moneyline favourite can only be achieved with a win, I personally don't believe there is any value in a losing bet on heavy chalk.

Ask Lou about this.

[betplom]

Please explain the value of a losing wager on a -500 tennis fav.

Perhaps pros do it differently but for a rec player there is no way they should be laying this kind of chalk, ever. It's just a bad habit to get into.

[nobs]

a -350 favorite is supposed to lose almost 25% of the time.

[Chi_archie]

I know that theoretically there can be value in any line....

but I set a pretty strict rule to not go over -150 and really -140 99% of the time in bases....... in such an arbitrary sport, where the worst teams win 40% of the time and best teams lose 35-40% of the time.... I can't stomach it. and there really is no reason to.... when you are 3x more likely to find value in fading the public #'s on the dogs

[Sawyer]

odds are misleading. Joe Public thinks -350 or -300 is a safe bet, no way this bet can lose..

...and they risk more..that's how books make money

[Chi_archie]

and people that will lay -250 will lay -300

so books inflate these high chalk lines, knowing not many will take the dog and plenty of suckers won't mind paying an extra 30,40,50,60 cents.....

[jayc88]

a -350 bases play loses as often as a -350 nba or any other sports play ,
just because teams are usually not favored by that much makes people think they found a way to make free money

[Chi_archie]

you need info to back that statement up Jay......

the fact of the matter is the linesmakers aren't setting the lines "mathmatically"..... but just to reflect public perception.... and in the case of bases, the market allows for larger swings in the moneyline without scaring off the market for "high chalk winners"....... its an odd phenomenon, but its true.


its ass backwards in my opinion too.... I'd much rather play a -300 foots or hoops ml than a bases one...

but the public, is much more willing to lay the chalk in bases for some reason.... makes no sense

[excel]

I got punked for $18 on the yankees today. Trying to satisfy a rollover for the lose.

[Dukebluejms]

Personally I was tempted to play the Indians today more than the Yanks. Yes I thought the Yanks would win, but with that kind of juice I would never play. I usually limit myself to favs around -150 at the very most and that is rare. Baseball is way too unpredictable.