Beating closing numbers in baseball

[Holtgetsback]

If I could beat the closing total on every game on the board by .5 should I bet every one?

[Holtgetsback]

Every day, not just one day

Also ALL wagers would be -110 or better

THANKS

[sharpcat]

depends what the vig is.

If the over on a game is 8.5 -105 at book A, and over 8 -130 at book B. Book A is actually the better line in this scenario because a half point is worth about .20 cents on a baseball total.

[Holtgetsback]

depends what the vig is.

If the over on a game is 8.5 -105 at book A, and over 8 -130 at book B. Book A is actually the better line in this scenario because a half point is worth about .20 cents on a baseball total.

Vig is -110 ALWAYS

[Chi_archie]

by .5 or .05?

[Holtgetsback]

by .5 or .05?

Sorry, will clarify...

The total closes at 8.5 and I am offered it at 9...

Juice is -110 and never changes

[Chi_archie]

do you know the push %'s on totals?

[sharpcat]

You would have nearly an 8% edge on every bet so yes you would profit long term by betting every game.

[Holtgetsback]

do you know the push %'s on totals?

Can't remember...if I had to guess it would be around 12%...

Also have to factor in when the total cannot be pushed for the edge....8.5 , etc

[Holtgetsback]

You would have nearly an 8% edge on every bet so yes you would profit long term by betting every game.

That's a significant edge...

Could you cliff notes how you came up with that number?

thanks

[sharpcat]

That's a significant edge...

Could you cliff notes how you came up with that number?

thanks

just estimating that the average half point in baseball is worth .20 cents you beating the closing number by a half point than theoretically you should be paying -130 but you are getting -110.

The implied win% at -130=56.52% so we will use this as your expected win %

The implied win % at -110=52.38%

Edge=(win probability/implied win %)-1=(56.52/52.38)-1=1.0790378-1=.079038= 7.9%