1. #1
    EGrecu
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    Is it a huge mistake to bet 3% or your bankroll each game?

    Is it possible to win long term betting 3% each game?

    I mean if you get a nasty cold streak of say 0-4, you're only down around 12%

  2. #2
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Greko, you're going down a rabbit hole.

    I'd say in general "No." It's not a mistake. It's correct to bet proportionately to your bankroll.

    Kelly Proportional betting takes that stance. Bet proportionately to your Expected ROI. If your expected ROI = 3%, then your bet size = 3% of BR. So, in JJ Gold's case, that's a bet of $0.06.

    A few adjustments before we get to optimal bet size. BIGGEST PROBLEM is that very few know how to FAIRLY calculate the true edge on their upcoming play.

    Let's say one can do that. Really should turn Expected ROI into Risk-Adjusted ROI. +3% ROI is MUCH BETTER on a 1.50 bet than a 3.00 bet. Much easier to blow up your bankroll when chasing dog prices.

    So, let's take Expected ROI and divide by Sqrt of Euro line. Should be more conservative on Dog line.

    Lastly, most bettors use partial Kelly. Full Kelly is too risky, b/c we might over-estimate our edge. So, Half Kelly may be reasonable.

    Got all that? Much much harder to identify a stream of +EV risks.

    If you want a freeroll on 100 posted plays, let me know. I'll hook u up.

  3. #3
    jjgold
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    3% you go broke slightly faster than 2% thatís all

  4. #4
    TommieGunshot
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    Quote Originally Posted by EGrecu View Post
    Is it possible to win long term betting 3% each game?

    I mean if you get a nasty cold streak of say 0-4, you're only down around 12%
    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet...ly-calculator/

    It is a mistake to bet over this. Bet under it and you will earn money from your bets.
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  5. #5
    jackpot269
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    3% you go broke slightly faster than 2% that’s all
    So jj, if I bet 10% per bet, after about a 1/4 of the season I want have to sweat that last defensive stand or that last TD anymore, just kick back and enjoy

  6. #6
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackpot269 View Post
    So jj, if I bet 10% per bet, after about a 1/4 of the season I want have to sweat that last defensive stand or that last TD anymore, just kick back and enjoy
    If one DRASTICALLY overbets their edge...it's almost inevitable his bankroll will flame. Enjoy the ride, tho, it's like liquid heroine.

  7. #7
    jackpot269
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    If one DRASTICALLY overbets their edge...it's almost inevitable his bankroll will flame. Enjoy the ride, tho, it's like liquid heroine.
    It is exciting my friend!!

    I was poking fun at the stress of needing a win and it going to the last play, with no bet, no stress just the game to enjoy!!

    Of coarse I always want action

  8. #8
    pologq
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    do you even use 1% or 2% bets?

  9. #9
    Snowball
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    if you can bang out 5-20% a day
    that is the road to the palace.
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  10. #10
    SlickFazzer
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    If you are picking winners no problem. But that is often the problem so, everyone's situation is different.

  11. #11
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlickFazzer View Post
    If you are picking winners no problem. But that is often the problem so, everyone's situation is different.
    Donít worry, he bounces around a 55-58% win rate. One of the best around
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  12. #12
    flyingillini
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    There are guys that go all in here with every bet ,they live a die each game

  13. #13
    cala56
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingillini View Post
    There are guys that go all in here with every bet ,they live a die each game
    Lol, jajajaja. Thats the way to start un sport betting, if you survive to those fails, you will become a profitable bettor.
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  14. #14
    KiDBaZkiT
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    You shouldnít be betting any less than 10% If you know what youíre doing you should be betting 25%

  15. #15
    juicername
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    Quote Originally Posted by EGrecu View Post
    Is it possible to win long term betting 3% each game?

    I mean if you get a nasty cold streak of say 0-4, you're only down around 12%
    What kind of sucker could possibly lose 4 in a row??

  16. #16
    iwantcougars
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    Quote Originally Posted by juicername View Post
    What kind of sucker could possibly lose 4 in a row??
    it happens to all of us, the same as getting hot and winning 7-10 in a row. Neither of us is exempt.

    unless you bet 10-12 a year

  17. #17
    iwantcougars
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    It depends on the volume of plays you expect to make (its not the same if you want to bet daily or very often) vs if "your season is 10-20 plays). Going 0-4 is ok if also you can do 4+ but in the end is discipline, and not starting to chase for the sake of recouping your actual lose

  18. #18
    juicername
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    Quote Originally Posted by iwantcougars View Post
    it happens to all of us, the same as getting hot and winning 7-10 in a row. Neither of us is exempt.

    unless you bet 10-12 a year
    I know, I was mocking el greeko who claims 4 losers in a row is a nasty losing streak, alluding to him picking winners all the time yet is still somehow broke and in debt.
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  19. #19
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by juicername View Post
    I know, I was mocking el greeko who claims 4 losers in a row is a nasty losing streak, alluding to him picking winners all the time yet is still somehow broke and in debt.
    I'm always rooting for my fellow posters to win. Two observations:

    1) I RARELY see someone post a string of long-run plays where they are raking in the profits.
    2) I OFTEN see posts that note a guy's long-run betting success. As if it's a birthright and not to be questioned.

  20. #20
    pavyracer
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    Do you want to die slowly by being cut into 33.33 pieces or would you rather have your head chopped off?

    This is the difference of betting 3% of you bankroll or going ALL IN.
    Last edited by pavyracer; 07-24-22 at 02:27 PM.
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  21. #21
    pologq
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    are you also betting 1%, 2%, 4% and 5%? do you use various levels?

  22. #22
    iwantcougars
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    i bet 2.75% but mostly because i want action at least 5 times a week, but this thread is making me reconsider, if i play 5% and only play 4-6 plays a month i would be in a better place, mostly if i was more picky about the games, sometimes i just play the sunday night game for action, when neither side was appealing (like tonights game)

  23. #23
    cala56
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Do you want to die slowly by being cut into 33.33 pieces or would you would rather have your head chopped off?

    This is the difference of betting 3% of you bankroll or going ALL IN.
    Hahahahahahaha,. Thats right
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  24. #24
    KiDBaZkiT
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Do you want to die slowly by being cut into 33.33 pieces or would rather have your head chopped off?

    This is the difference of betting 3% of you bankroll or going ALL IN.
    Pavy stfu and post a fade you weirdo queer.
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  25. #25
    JIBBBY
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    It's a huge mistake to bet 100% of your bank roll on one game.

    Everything else is game.
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