1. #246
    smarotta09
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    Where r u guys getting the picks from

  2. #247
    JayLA
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    Quote Originally Posted by smarotta09 View Post
    Where r u guys getting the picks from
    Some guy on some website is posting his picks for some kind of contest.

  3. #248
    DJK
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    Quote Originally Posted by smarotta09 View Post
    Where r u guys getting the picks from
    What's the forum rule on posting URL from other gambling sites?

    If it's allowed, then I will post the exact place where you can see what the guy is picking.

    Also, there are others who are on crazy heaters like 13 wins in a row, so why are we not taking that guy's picks???

    I'm beginning to wonder if I bet all of the top 10 to 20 best streak picks, then would I come out ahead? It's a lot of picks to bet, so I would need a decent bankroll to last if it works out somehow.

    I suppose I could try a very small unit bets and if works then increase the unit size?

  4. #249
    DJK
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    The lowest winning streak is 8 for the top 20 streaks.

    So mathematically, if you bet all top 20 picks for the last 7 days, you are like +140 units but most likely less since I'm sure some teams picked are overlapped by these people.

    But at least +7 at the worst. I will take +1 a day any day.

  5. #250
    DJK
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    I'm beginning to wonder if I should do the Martingale bets on this guy since he doesn't seem to lose too many in a row. He has more wins in a row than the losses in a row.

  6. #251
    DJK
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    Quote Originally Posted by smarotta09 View Post
    Where r u guys getting the picks from
    I read SBR's FAQ and I didn't really see anything that prohibits from posting an outside URL, so this is the guy Vanwarinator (credit to sunshine11).

    https://contests.covers.com/survivor...1-0024e8753722


    If you want all of the streak leaders, it's below. Be careful how you use them as there's no guarantee that you will win tailing them. It will take a lot of work to sort through them to see if their picks are profitable.

    https://contests.covers.com/survivor

  7. #252
    DJK
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    I just noticed something about Vanwarinator's record.

    It's only 1464-1442-87 overall, so that's only 48.91% win rate. 50.37% if you discard the pushes.

    He may be winning lately, but overall he hasn't won if he bet his own picks unless a lot of his picks are plus odds which I'm not seeing.

  8. #253
    DJK
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    That's the thing about tailing or fading someone else's picks.

    How do you know what's right?

    Is there a formula when to tail and when to fade?

    Rich Boy initially made a lot tailing LT's picks, but that's soured lately. If you tailed all of LT's NBA, MLB, and NHL, I think it's still profitable, but jjgold said even LT goes into massive loss streaks whether that's true or not.

    I thought about creating a thread of posters' win/loss track records so people can see and decide on one thread who to tail and who to fade, but that would take a lot of time and work to do.

    I have to weed through a lot of posts to see who's betting on what and what their track records are and it's very time consuming.

  9. #254
    Jowframs
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    NHL
    Rangers-128

  10. #255
    newguy
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    Quote Originally Posted by DJK View Post
    I'm beginning to wonder if I should do the Martingale bets on this guy since he doesn't seem to lose too many in a row. He has more wins in a row than the losses in a row.
    Donít do it. A few b2b losses wipes out bankroll. If you have something thatís working - stick with it. If your doing it - martingale on the win. Increase 1 unit with every win. Win 1, bet 2 next game. Win 2, bet 3 next game. 3 game win streak breaks even between straight and martingale win. You win 4+ in a row and are making exponentially more on each game than straights. Just have to have something that is streaky to make it work.

  11. #256
    svsooner
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jowframs View Post
    NHL
    Rangers-128
    Good pick, makes sense. Pen's won't have Jarry in the net and they have had a losing record vs. playoff teams since Jan/Feb. Probably a 3-0 or 3-1 game...

  12. #257
    DJK
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    I'm just curious. Why are you folks following Vanwarinator when a guy on the top of the list (BigLineAction) has won the last 10 picks? Doesn't it make sense to following someone who's on the top of the list now and not someone who was hot before? Vanwarinator is very choppy at the moment.


    Survivor: Pick Profile


    BigLineAction

    Since:2021





    Current Streak: 10
    Best Streak: 10

    Overall:
    198-186-7
    Last 10:
    10-0
    Last 20:
    17-3



    Pending Picks

    NEXT PICK DEADLINE: Time to expiry: 6 Days 18 Hrs 34 Min | Expiry date: May 11, 2022 04:30 PM ET
    Completed Picks

    Date League Game Score Pick Outcome
    May 4, 2022 MLB San Diego
    Cleveland
    5
    4
    Over 7.0 Win
    May 3, 2022 NHL Nashville
    Colorado
    2
    7
    Over 6.5 Win
    May 2, 2022 NHL Los Angeles
    Edmonton
    4
    3
    Over 6.5 Win
    May 1, 2022 NBA Milwaukee
    Boston
    101
    89
    Under 217.5 Win
    Apr 30, 2022 MLB Chi. Cubs
    Milwaukee
    1
    9
    Over 7.5 Win
    Apr 29, 2022 NHL Vegas
    St. Louis
    7
    4
    Over 6.5 Win
    Apr 28, 2022 NBA Phoenix
    New Orleans
    115
    109
    Over 214.5 Win
    Apr 27, 2022 NBA Denver
    Golden State
    98
    102
    DEN +9.0 Win
    Apr 26, 2022 NBA Atlanta
    Miami
    94
    97
    Under 217.5 Win
    Apr 25, 2022 NBA Boston
    Brooklyn
    116
    112
    BOS +1.0 Win

  13. #258
    smarotta09
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    Quote Originally Posted by DJK View Post
    I'm just curious. Why are you folks following Vanwarinator when a guy on the top of the list (BigLineAction) has won the last 10 picks? Doesn't it make sense to following someone who's on the top of the list now and not someone who was hot before? Vanwarinator is very choppy at the moment.


    Survivor: Pick Profile


    BigLineAction

    Since:2021





    Current Streak: 10
    Best Streak: 10

    Overall:
    198-186-7
    Last 10:
    10-0
    Last 20:
    17-3



    Pending Picks

    NEXT PICK DEADLINE: Time to expiry: 6 Days 18 Hrs 34 Min | Expiry date: May 11, 2022 04:30 PM ET
    Completed Picks

    Date League Game Score Pick Outcome
    May 4, 2022 MLB San Diego
    Cleveland
    5
    4
    Over 7.0 Win
    May 3, 2022 NHL Nashville
    Colorado
    2
    7
    Over 6.5 Win
    May 2, 2022 NHL Los Angeles
    Edmonton
    4
    3
    Over 6.5 Win
    May 1, 2022 NBA Milwaukee
    Boston
    101
    89
    Under 217.5 Win
    Apr 30, 2022 MLB Chi. Cubs
    Milwaukee
    1
    9
    Over 7.5 Win
    Apr 29, 2022 NHL Vegas
    St. Louis
    7
    4
    Over 6.5 Win
    Apr 28, 2022 NBA Phoenix
    New Orleans
    115
    109
    Over 214.5 Win
    Apr 27, 2022 NBA Denver
    Golden State
    98
    102
    DEN +9.0 Win
    Apr 26, 2022 NBA Atlanta
    Miami
    94
    97
    Under 217.5 Win
    Apr 25, 2022 NBA Boston
    Brooklyn
    116
    112
    BOS +1.0 Win
    What site is this

  14. #259
    DJK
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    Quote Originally Posted by smarotta09 View Post
    What site is this
    See post #251.

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post30866051

    BigLineAction is actually 6th on the list.

    https://contests.covers.com/survivor

  15. #260
    DJK
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    BigLineAction winner again. Better than Vanwarinator.

    Date League Game Score Pick Outcome
    May 5, 2022 NHL Pittsburgh
    NY Rangers
    2
    5
    Over 6.0 Win

  16. #261
    CJ
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    VW is on Brewers/Braves o8 today.

    He's now at 6-4 (L10), so adjust accordingly.

  17. #262
    DJK
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    BigLineAction's pick is Phoenix Suns +1.0.

    Pending Picks

    Date League Game Score Status Pick
    May 6, 2022 NBA Phoenix
    Dallas
    -
    -
    09:30 PM PHO +1.0

  18. #263
    DJK
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    bostonutah who is perfect 13-0 in his last 13 picks (11 NBA and 2 NHL) is picking Miami.

    Maybe a parlay of Phoenix Suns ML and Miami Heat ML worth taking a shot?

    Pending Picks

    Date League Game Score Status Pick
    May 6, 2022 NBA Miami
    Philadelphia
    -
    -
    07:00 PM MIA -3.0

  19. #264
    DJK
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    Quote Originally Posted by DJK View Post
    I'm beginning to wonder if I bet all of the top 10 to 20 best streak picks, then would I come out ahead?
    Absolutely no good on the first try. I tested on a various number of top ## streaks.

    For the top 10, it's 50/50 so only 50% win rate but with the higher juice on MLB's it's definitely less than 50% win rate.

    For the top 20, only 6 of them won, so that's only 30% or less win rate with the juice.

    For the top 50, only 17 won, so that's 34% or less win rate.

    In other words, if it looks too good to be true then it's probably not. It definitely isn't following these streaks.

  20. #265
    CJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by DJK View Post
    Absolutely no good on the first try. I tested on a various number of top ## streaks.

    For the top 10, it's 50/50 so only 50% win rate but with the higher juice on MLB's it's definitely less than 50% win rate.

    For the top 20, only 6 of them won, so that's only 30% or less win rate with the juice.

    For the top 50, only 17 won, so that's 34% or less win rate.

    In other words, if it looks too good to be true then it's probably not. It definitely isn't following these streaks.
    It's a great idea, but I tracked this for a couple days myself - I also looked for people with significant losing streaks or really bad records, and most everything came out too close to 50/50. Not a significant sample size of course, but seems very unlikely there's any value on either side.

  21. #266
    Mike Huntertz
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    This thread has gone for a sh!t!

  22. #267
    DJK
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ View Post
    It's a great idea, but I tracked this for a couple days myself - I also looked for people with significant losing streaks or really bad records, and most everything came out too close to 50/50. Not a significant sample size of course, but seems very unlikely there's any value on either side.
    Go figure. From 05/07/2022 to today (so 2 days), 17 out of 20 on the top of the list made it, i.e. won their picks. That's 85% win rate which is just ridiculous good.

    I probably gave up too soon after only 1 day of tracking.

    For the top 10, it's 8 out 10 wins, so that's 80% win rate.

    I probably should track it for a longer period of time and see how it goes?

    I will have to write a script to auto-track since it's taking me too long to track them manually.

  23. #268
    CJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by DJK View Post
    Go figure. From 05/07/2022 to today (so 2 days), 17 out of 20 on the top of the list made it, i.e. won their picks. That's 85% win rate which is just ridiculous good.

    I probably gave up too soon after only 1 day of tracking.

    For the top 10, it's 8 out 10 wins, so that's 80% win rate.

    I probably should track it for a longer period of time and see how it goes?

    I will have to write a script to auto-track since it's taking me too long to track them manually.
    If you can write a successful script to do the tracking, then we might be on to something. That would need to run awhile though to collect enough data to determine a cutoff point on when you would/wouldn't want to tail.

  24. #269
    DJK
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ View Post
    If you can write a successful script to do the tracking, then we might be on to something. That would need to run awhile though to collect enough data to determine a cutoff point on when you would/wouldn't want to tail.
    I had a VBScript that would go to any URL and screen scraped, but someone on here posted a screen scraping in Python for the daily MLB line ups. I will have to take a look at his and see which is more viable or practical and then once I have the data, tracking is easy peasy to write a script for so once I have it setup it will just spit out the data I can have in Excel to view easily if this is profitable or not.

    If I don't procrastinate since I do have a full time job as a programmer, raising 2 kids, plus the casino gambling whenever I have the time, hopefully this won't take too long to setup.

  25. #270
    CJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by DJK View Post
    If I don't procrastinate since I do have a full time job as a programmer, raising 2 kids, plus the casino gambling whenever I have the time, hopefully this won't take too long to setup.
    You know which one of those is taking up the most time... it's those kids lol

  26. #271
    oldmanTED
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    Hockey total alert;

    May 10, 2022 NHL Tampa Bay
    Toronto
    -
    -
    07:30 PM Over 6.5

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