Won't This Work?

[jolmscheid]

I have been thinking about this...why won't this work?? OK it involves 3 game chases but hear me out!

So if you do a 3 game chase using -110 odds, one will lose around 7 units per series loss....and if it is a 50% chance of one winning at -110 odds, then one will lose 12-13 chases per 100 chases...

But what if you spread your series losses over the next 3-4 chases...that way one will replenish their losses as a series loss will happen once every 10 series or so...

So I don't see why this wouldn't work? I understand that many are against chases but please tell me how this wouldn't work?

As I said, spreading a series loss of 7 units out over the next 3-4 series, then one will regain the losses on those series PLUS their profits for those series...

Please state your case here and why. Thanks

[illfuuptn]

I don't know what you mean by "spreading a series loss over the next 3-4 chases" but nonetheless it doesn't change the fact that you are making a -EV play every time you bet games that have juice unless there is more value in a side than the line suggests and this value must overcome the juice. A chase is a LOSING system. It just has a high percentage of wins which distort the true value. If you take a 99% bet 15 times in a row, there's an 86% chance of winning every time. So after 15 times you will probably be 15-0...but that doesn't mean the true value is 100%. That's why these chase systems seem attractive.

[u21c3f6]

What happens if you have two losing chases in a row?

Joe.

[jolmscheid]

Then you spread the losses over the next 3-4 series...so you would then spread the 14 units lost over the next 3-4 chases (so like 5 units per chase then).....what do you think

[skrtelfan]

This "system" has the same problem as any other martingale system. You may eventually eek out a small win 90% of the time or whatever but the other 10% of the time your losses will be catastrophic.

[sharpcat]

If chase systems worked than the books would surely develop software to sort out anyone suspected of doing so and would ban the player and likely place rules against doing so so they could confiscate your winnings. Its quite the opposite books love seeing action from martingale players because they know that eventually that streak of losses is coming.

Didn't Justin7 already tell you once or twice about "no systems in the think tank" and remove your threads from the think tank????

Justin said it best any system that does not take the line or any other important factor of the game into consideration does not belong in the think tank.

[Wrecktangle]

Martingale systems sure seem to have a powerful hold on the minds of many it seems. When you examine the frequency of short patterns vs long patterns, they should "even out" in the Gaussian world. Unfortunately in practice the non-Gaussian distributions in sports tends to negate this, i.e. long patterns happen more frequently than expected in my experience.

However, I've no mathematical proof of this.

[vitalyo]

Martingale systems are good for the short period . Eventually you will run in to bad streak that will wipe out your entire bankroll .