1. #1
    thomorino
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    Kansas City v. Tampa Bay - Pick and Write-Up

    -6.2 units on sides in the playoffs

    I think the value is with Kansas City -3 -117. Risking 4.68 units to win 4.

    Tampa Bay beat Green Bay, but they were lucky to win the turnover battle for a second straight week, with Brady being very inconsistent the last 2 weeks. Brady has struggled against every good defense he's faced this year despite the Tampa Bay getting to the super bowl. Against the Saints Brady had less than 50 yards passing near the end of the first half and against the Packers he through 3 interceptions.

    The defenses Brady has struggled against going back years have all had great pass rush up the middle. Brady's quick release and movement in the pocket let's him work around edge rush, but consistent pass rush up the middle is what has given him more trouble than other quarterbacks because of his lack of mobility. The Giants interior pass rush in their 2 super bowl wins over him and the Chiefs pass rush against Brady in the earlier matchup gave him problems, the Rams pass rush up the middle with Donald gave Brady a lot of trouble too.

    Fournette has been garbage this year, averaging less than 4 yards a carry and dropping numerous balls. Jones is not healthy with the quad injury, and he has been the far better receiver and runner this year for Tampa, he had a solid game against the Chiefs when these teams played earlier this year. Jones will likely play, but he's been limited as a runner since hurting his quad and he has barely even been used in the playoffs as a receiver since dealing with that injury.

    The Chiefs have one of the best interior pass rushers in Chris Jones, and they have Frank Clark coming off the edge as well. The Chiefs have 4 solid corner and mathieu, and their secondary is very good as well. Spagnola was the defensive coordinator during the Giants 2 super bowl wins and he's consistently had success against Brady.

    The Chiefs did lose their starting pro bowl left tackle Fischer, but he was garbage in the first matchup between these teams this year, and the Chiefs still had no trouble moving the ball. Andy Reid is one of the best at preparing game plans with extra time, and he'll have 2 weeks to game plan for Fischer being out. The Chiefs receiver and Kelce dominated the Tampa Bay secondary in the first matchup, and Mahomes is obviously moves well, so the Chiefs should be able to use quick passing to offset Tampa's pass rush. Tampa Bay also has 2 safeties who are hurt, and Winfield likely won't be healthy even if he plays since he wasn't able to play in the NFC championship game.

    Fans should be 50-50 and their should be fewer distractions for the Chiefs not being at home.

  2. #2
    CJ
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  3. #3
    johnnyvegas13
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    Weeders and Moroni on the chiefs

    Bucs r winning the sb
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: GunShard, and big joe 1212

  4. #4
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    Weeders and Moroni on the chiefs

    Bucs r winning the sb
    2 dumb shits

  5. #5
    Wrongside
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    sh*t

  6. #6
    stevenash
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    Cut the guy a break here.
    He likes the Chiefs with a good writeup.
    That's all I ask for in a selection thread.

    I personally think the games a toss up and haven't made up mind how to bet it albeit total or props, but I think I'm laying off the side. (for now)

  7. #7
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrongside View Post
    sh*t
    You are a dumb shit.

  8. #8
    cincinnatikid513
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    shocker he takes the chiefs

    congrats bucs backers

  9. #9
    teacher10
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    solid write up. thanks for the info. now I know who to bet for. (t10)

  10. #10
    Wrongside
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    I appreciate the write-up as well, although you was pretty wrong about a few points:

    Brady played great last week. He was big on 3rd downs and that matters a ton. The Int's were a good deal the fault of Evans and were not of the costly variety. And yes, there's still plenty of room to accuse Bradyof getting lucky at the same time....But this is Tom Brad we are talking about: The Tuck Rule, Malcolm Butler's Int. Dee Ford's infraction...those are three conclusive plays where Brady was dead to rights. THREE less SB's and those are just a few plays at the top of my head.

    Fisher being out is huge

    Winfield will be fine

    Fournette is a very dangerous cat

    There will not be a lot of Hoopla this year. TB won't be extra distracted either.

  11. #11
    stevenash
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    I can't bet the side because fading TB12 in a big game is very risky business.

  12. #12
    El Choppi
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    I read this same write up somewhere else you fraud

  13. #13
    jjgold
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    value??

    your town 91 units kid

  14. #14
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    value??

    your town 91 units kid
    he only bets 5 dollars a game

  15. #15
    Buckandadime
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Choppi View Post
    I read this same write up somewhere else you fraud

  16. #16
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    Weeders and Moroni on the chiefs

    Bucs r winning the sb
    Weeders, Moroni and Homie all on Chiefs

  17. #17
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnuckleHeadz View Post
    Weeders, Moroni and Homie all on Chiefs
    just need brock landers and u got the superfecta

  18. #18
    stevenash
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    You guys are merciless.

  19. #19
    CJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    2 dumb shits
    You're still just a pussy!

  20. #20
    pilebuck13
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    Good
    Rite
    Up
    And good luck bro.
    I think this game
    Is a coin flip
    Looking at props
    For
    Fun

  21. #21
    pologq
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    that was a good write up. i appreciate it.

    my disagreements are

    1) fournette has been good for tampa. i don't mind him in if jones is not 100%. i think fournette likes being the safety net for tom like the way james white was in new england.

    2) fisher out is big against the bucs pass rush. all the game plans in the world by candy andy can't make up for talent.

    i am still undecided here. might put it all on tails and pray.

  22. #22
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Choppi View Post
    I read this same write up somewhere else you fraud
    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    value??

    your town 91 units kid
    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post

    he only bets 5 dollars a game
    Quote Originally Posted by Buckandadime View Post

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post

    just need brock landers and u got the superfecta
    Dumb shits

  23. #23
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    shocker he takes the chiefs

    congrats bucs backers
    You are a dumb shit.

  24. #24
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrongside View Post
    I appreciate the write-up as well, although you was pretty wrong about a few points:

    Brady played great last week. He was big on 3rd downs and that matters a ton. The Int's were a good deal the fault of Evans and were not of the costly variety. And yes, there's still plenty of room to accuse Bradyof getting lucky at the same time....But this is Tom Brad we are talking about: The Tuck Rule, Malcolm Butler's Int. Dee Ford's infraction...those are three conclusive plays where Brady was dead to rights. THREE less SB's and those are just a few plays at the top of my head.

    Fisher being out is huge

    Winfield will be fine

    Fournette is a very dangerous cat

    There will not be a lot of Hoopla this year. TB won't be extra distracted either.
    Brady threw three interceptions and fournette is slow and a bad receiver, Jones is far better.

  25. #25
    garygroundwork
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    Best of luck.

  26. #26
    CJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    Brady threw three interceptions and fournette is slow and a bad receiver, Jones is far better.
    There's that autistic analysis kicking in again!

  27. #27
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ View Post
    There's that autistic analysis kicking in again!
    No substance because as usual you have nothing but trash to say, you are a dumb shit.

  28. #28
    CJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    No substance because as usual you have nothing but trash to say, you are a dumb shit.
    And you are STILL just a pussy!

  29. #29
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ View Post
    And you are STILL just a pussy!
    You are a dumb shit.

  30. #30
    big joe 1212
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    It’s Brady threw 3 interceptions, not through 3 interceptions

    and this guy is a lawyer?

  31. #31
    CJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by big joe 1212 View Post
    It’s Brady threw 3 interceptions, not through 3 interceptions

    and this guy is a lawyer?

  32. #32
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by big joe 1212 View Post
    It’s Brady threw 3 interceptions, not through 3 interceptions

    and this guy is a lawyer?
    Quote Originally Posted by CJ View Post
    2 dumb shits

  33. #33
    thomorino
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    Looks like both of Tampa’s safeties may miss the game

  34. #34
    aveeno
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    Do not over think this one. CHiefs large. These teams do not match up at all. Line is way off. Chiefs should be much higher but I get it as to why its 3.5
    You will see 4 and higher by game time.

  35. #35
    stake1
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    Quote Originally Posted by big joe 1212 View Post
    Itís Brady threw 3 interceptions, not through 3 interceptions

    and this guy is a lawyer?

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