+4 units on political bets
I think Trump wins Florida, risking 3.5 units to win 2.
The polls in Florida have been inaccurate the last several elections in favor of democrats, and they have predicted Republicans such as Senator Rick Scott would lose even though he has won repeatedly.
The Cuban and latino community had a strong connection to Hillary Clinton because of actions her husband took, but Obama deported massive numbers of mostly latino illegal immigrants, and Biden is much weaker than Hillary with younger Latinos and the Cuban Latino community. Many younger latinos remember Obama's massive deportations which have stopped under Trump, and much of the Cuban community sees how far left the democrats have gone, and many in this community hate socialism because of their experiences with leaders such as Castro.
The Republicans are also far better organized on the ground, where the democrats have almost no ground game and early voting in Miami Dade suggests the democrats are already significant behind because they are underperforming historical averages with blacks and Latinos.
Trump may lost some senior voters he won in 2016 because of misinformation about covid, but he will max his base out and likely do better with black and latinos.
I think Trump wins Florida, risking 3.5 units to win 2.
The polls in Florida have been inaccurate the last several elections in favor of democrats, and they have predicted Republicans such as Senator Rick Scott would lose even though he has won repeatedly.
The Cuban and latino community had a strong connection to Hillary Clinton because of actions her husband took, but Obama deported massive numbers of mostly latino illegal immigrants, and Biden is much weaker than Hillary with younger Latinos and the Cuban Latino community. Many younger latinos remember Obama's massive deportations which have stopped under Trump, and much of the Cuban community sees how far left the democrats have gone, and many in this community hate socialism because of their experiences with leaders such as Castro.
The Republicans are also far better organized on the ground, where the democrats have almost no ground game and early voting in Miami Dade suggests the democrats are already significant behind because they are underperforming historical averages with blacks and Latinos.
Trump may lost some senior voters he won in 2016 because of misinformation about covid, but he will max his base out and likely do better with black and latinos.
