3 profitable systems for MLB??

[jolmscheid]

OK...this may be something that has been asked before, but I thought of a couple "systems" that may or may not work??

The FIRST one I thought of was picking the best odds each day for wagering on "YES there will be a run in the first inning" - so for this, the odds would be at around +120 and I was thinking about chasing it for 3 games...I know people don't like chases but with proper money management chases can work (It's just whether or not this one will work)...so one would lose around 6-7 units on a series loss and I think that a series loss would occur about 1 time in every 10 series on average...so wouldn't this be a profitable angle???


The SECOND one I thought about was betting on teams that had won 3 games in a row and riding their streak placing straight bets until a loss, no matter what the odds are for that team...and then doing the same for a losing streak of 3 games, then ride that team's losing streak and bet on the other team...I think this could be profitable being that many teams go on 5 game winning streaks and losing streaks many times in a season....


The THIRD one I thought of was betting on EVERY home team NOT to get swept in a 3 game series...now this one many people will bawk at, but how many teams actually get swept at home many times per year? No matter how bad they are?? So with this system there would be a lot of plays..some with great odds and some with high juice of course...but with playing this many series, one could encounter many series losses and still profit because of the fact that the majority of teams will not get swept at home too often....


So what do you guys think????

[Justin7]

No systems that are blind to prices in the think tank please. On any of these, you need to figure out what the fair odds are. Any system that doesn't consider the fair odds will lose.

[sharpcat]

Boston Redsox got swept on a 4 game homestead by tampa bay this year already.

Atlanta Braves got swept 3 in a row as heavy favorites this year.

This method will crush you eventually

[texhooper]

here's what you should do...go to covers or somewhere and go through the past seasons and see what you would come out with if you had done this for the past three years. the first one would be a pain, and maybe not even possible to track, but the other two you could.

number 2 sounds good but would end up breaking even, and i'd say number 3 is a lot worse than you would think with odds factored in. both are pretty much breakeven, the third one might be slightly profitable. but you can only know if you go back and test. then you will see what the fair market odds thing that justin is talking about actually is.