Will any horse win the triple crown

minet123 · 04-23-10, 01:39 AM

free money

DrStale · 04-23-10, 01:41 AM

Seems like good value at -800 considering past results. BOL.

pat venditto · 04-23-10, 01:47 AM

Won't happen I like your bet. Who was that horse that was supposed to win it the other year and he/she broke it's fuking leg and placed basically last? Think it was at Belmont.

ttwarrior1 · 04-23-10, 02:34 AM

yeh that was a tragedy, i believe there is a espn horse race on tommorrow at churchill. Im not up to date on the horses yet

pat venditto · 04-23-10, 02:37 AM

Never understood why people love the ponies so much. I'm skepticle over the nba and the nfl and other various leagues... why would i trust a little midget and a horse?

minet123 · 04-23-10, 02:41 AM

Originally posted by pat venditto

Never understood why people love the ponies so much. I'm skepticle over the nba and the nfl and other various leagues... why would i trust a little midget and a horse?

made my night

pat venditto · 04-23-10, 02:44 AM

I'm glad to here that i made you laugh.

Lets win some fuking bets tommorow i'm not fuking around anymore.

andywend · 04-23-10, 02:45 AM

Laying -800 is a horrible bet.

Odds at the Greek:

Triple Crown Winner:
Yes +405
No -605

Eskenderya is light years better than any other 3 year old.

If I could get 8-1 on a Triple Crown Winner, I would bet $10K on it.

The horse who finished last in the Belmont was Big Brown.

Warrior, don't bet any more on that wager laying -800, HORRIBLE VALUE.

pat venditto · 04-23-10, 02:47 AM

Andy wend since you are willing to bet big money, i'm willing to bet that you know what you're doing.

ttwarrior1 · 04-23-10, 12:05 PM

any horse racing on tv today, they usually have some churchill downs races the week before on friday and the day before

INVEGA MAN · 04-23-10, 12:18 PM

THEIR WONT BE A TRIPLE CROWN WINNER THIS YEAR BUT I WOULD NEVER LAY THOSE ODDS. THOSE MIDGETS HAVE MADE ME A LOT OF MONEY. JUST HIT $4000 2 MONTHS ago

gr1624 · 04-23-10, 01:47 PM

Will happen in the next 8 years but not sure which year it will be.

sharpcat · 04-23-10, 02:12 PM

wow I wouldn't bet $50 to win $400 here.

Do you have any knowledge of horse racing?

it is too hard for a horse who wins the preakness and the derby at a mile and a 1/4 to go to belmont and win at a mile and a 1/2 around 2 turns.

sharpcat · 04-23-10, 02:14 PM

some horses are sprinters some are distance runners but very few can be the best at both.

This is why you always see a lot of horses win the first 2 legs but can't win the belmont!!!

INVEGA MAN · 04-23-10, 02:38 PM

its tough to win 3 races in that short of time.

str · 04-23-10, 02:53 PM

This years favorite(Eskendereya's) is bred to get the mile and a half . Usually that is not the case. Most American bred horses have to much sprint blood to think they can handle the Belmont.
Don't make the bet figuring he can't win the Belmont.
His breeding suggests it will not be a problem.

sharpcat · 04-23-10, 03:06 PM

Even if a horse had a 50% chance to win each individual race the probability of him winning all 3 would only be 12.5%. At 12.5% chance of winning you would require a line of +700 to break even at an EV of 0. considering that in a 12 horse field a horse has at best a 30% chance of winning each race the probability of a horse winning all 3 legs of the triple crown would be 3% at 3% you would need a line of +3233 to break even. considering that Eskendereyas is currently a 30% favorite to win the preakness it would be foolish to make this bet.

Grandmaster B · 04-23-10, 03:10 PM

NO....not after this

str · 04-23-10, 03:14 PM

Smarty Jones couldn't go a mile and a half in a van.
That's my point.
If this horse is in that position,the distance will favor him,not hurt him.

Grandmaster B · 04-23-10, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by pat venditto

Won't happen I like your bet. Who was that horse that was supposed to win it the other year and he/she broke it's fuking leg and placed basically last? Think it was at Belmont.

this is what happens when you take a horse off juice

Grandmaster B · 04-23-10, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by str

Smarty Jones couldn't go a mile and a half in a van.
That's my point.
If this horse is in that position,the distance will favor him,not hurt him.

you want more?....because I got more

str · 04-23-10, 03:38 PM

Real Quiet =same as S. Jones.Just wasnt made to do the distance.Big Brown had a decent chance "breeding wise" but it did not happen.
Hey, I am not saying anything about he will or he wont.
I said that where most American bred horses have a real flaw at 1 1/2 miles. This years Favorite does not.

sharpcat · 04-23-10, 03:51 PM

You would have better odds flat betting a single horse for each leg of the triple crown at 2-1 or better each leg than taking what is basically a trifecta paying only 7-1. Or better yet take your bet and winnings from each race and bet the next race, 7-1 on a trifecta with a 12% chance of winning at best is an awful wager.

I am not arguing that it can't be done nor am I arguing it won't be done this year, I am simply stating that the odds being offered are without a doubt and mathematically proven to be a negative expected value proposition.

str · 04-23-10, 03:54 PM

I completely agree.

ryanspeer2001 · 04-23-10, 04:00 PM

Great awesome amazing bet...still scary though.

whatsgood5 · 04-23-10, 04:05 PM

Easy money man

brock · 04-23-10, 04:30 PM

Tough task three wins in five weeks. Have to race fresh horses that
past up the Derby or Preakness.

mikemca · 04-23-10, 05:57 PM

Thats lower than I woulda thought...Good Bet