Let’s talk ncaaFB week 13!

[2daBank]

I know this is the college thread, and I'm not trying to clutter it up with off topic stuff, but you guys are all pretty sharp in here so I can't help it. Chargers +5 tonight? Books took a bath on NFL yesterday and I read most books getting a ton of Chiefs money.

I have chargers +11/over teaser carried over from bears/under 4 teamer I made last night. That as involved I’m gonna get on side. Think I’m prob gonna play the over straight. Me, AG, and several others been talking bout it more in the daily thread JJ starts so I’m not gonna add thoughts here just jump over and check that thread out


Speaking of college I’m glad I started this thread so early this week, already a ton of good stuff in here, should be amazing read by end of week for anyone who waits til Friday night and pulls a cram session!! Lol: Everyone on point so far bringing the heat!!! Really appreciate everyone who contributes to making this the best thread around imo!!!

[Demonata]

lol. All good. Yes osu at Pick’em would be the best bet of the century!! We agree on this, certainly wouldn’t be a better game on board!! Lmao

Yeah man for sure. What bet you like the most this Saturday?

[2daBank]

Yeah man for sure. What bet you like the most this Saturday?

Still early. Gophers-12.5 was only one I bet so far but not saying it my favorite as much as I wanted to get it before it went higher as I suspect it might (I’m no great line reader expert tho so I could be wrong on that, recently most the lines have went way I been betting which prob a sign I been seeing things well).

I like the beavers a great deal but I missed +14, i like them at anything better than +10 honestly but think was only 12,5 when I went to bet and saw no point jumping on dog at that line. Next time I’m looking at can get +13 I will take.

Other than those 2 I still have a ton of work to do on card before I can say what my favorite play is, I just wanted to get thread started earlier this week, think a good thing considering how much good conversations already but doesn’t have me prepared to say what my favorite is. I’ll have a better answer tonight hopefully when I have more time to dive into numbers.

[fecgp40]

I have chargers +11/over teaser carried over from bears/under 4 teamer I made last night. That as involved I’m gonna get on side. Think I’m prob gonna play the over straight. Me, AG, and several others been talking bout it more in the daily thread JJ starts so I’m not gonna add thoughts here just jump over and check that thread out


Speaking of college I’m glad I started this thread so early this week, already a ton of good stuff in here, should be amazing read by end of week for anyone who waits til Friday night and pulls a cram session!! Lol: Everyone on point so far bringing the heat!!! Really appreciate everyone who contributes to making this the best thread around imo!!!

Agreed. Best thread by far. Thanks to you guys I have more than doubled my bankroll this year. I just have to get off the mat from my two terrible beats this weekend. (CSU and Cards)

[2daBank]

Agreed. Best thread by far. Thanks to you guys I have more than doubled my bankroll this year. I just have to get off the mat from my two terrible beats this weekend. (CSU and Cards)

You seen that thread where dude still going crazy over some non pi called in ravens game for reason he lost the over? Couldn’t help but think there were some far worse beats than that this weekend and hadn’t seen anyone start a “I want a refund” thread, lol, he good dude but way off the deep end on that shit. Lol. You taking those much better than he is, of course I’m assuming you didn’t go all in either!

[fecgp40]

You seen that thread where dude still going crazy over some non pi called in ravens game for reason he lost the over? Couldn’t help but think there were some far worse beats than that this weekend and hadn’t seen anyone start a “I want a refund” thread, lol, he good dude but way off the deep end on that shit. Lol. You taking those much better than he is, of course I’m assuming you didn’t go all in either!

If you had seen my face after 49ers returned the fumble you wouldn't have thought I was taking it well. LOL!! I never did see the pi call play but I heard it discussed on NFL radio this afternoon. Blandino said it should have been called. I've had many bad beats in my lifetime. I think each time it happens it's easier to accept.

[2daBank]

If you had seen my face after 49ers returned the fumble you wouldn't have thought I was taking it well. LOL!! I never did see the pi call play but I heard it discussed on NFL radio this afternoon. Blandino said it should have been called. I've had many bad beats in my lifetime. I think each time it happens it's easier to accept.

The 2 you were on were way worse. I don’t really care how blatant some missed pi was in the 1st half. There no way to reasonably assume that being called woulda equaled 3-7 more points on the scoreboard at the end. Final play goofball shit like yours no comparison. I remember a Steelers game once that was similar. A redskins Monday night, and then NW vs Stanford beginning of this year which were all brutal last play garbage. Those sting. I can’t ever recall thinking something that happened in 1st half equating to a bad beat, lol.

[fecgp40]

The 2 you were on were way worse. I don’t really care how blatant some missed pi was in the 1st half. There no way to reasonably assume that being called woulda equaled 3-7 more points on the scoreboard at the end. Final play goofball shit like yours no comparison. I remember a Steelers game once that was similar. A redskins Monday night, and then NW vs Stanford beginning of this year which were all brutal last play garbage. Those sting. I can’t ever recall thinking something that happened in 1st half equating to a bad beat, lol.

Agree 100% on the first half. You never know how something going differently can change the way the game is played in the 2nd half. That Zona ending yesterday reminded me of the Ohio St/Northwestern nonsense from years ago. Of course I was on Northwestern in that one as well.

[fecgp40]

The 2 you were on were way worse. I don’t really care how blatant some missed pi was in the 1st half. There no way to reasonably assume that being called woulda equaled 3-7 more points on the scoreboard at the end. Final play goofball shit like yours no comparison. I remember a Steelers game once that was similar. A redskins Monday night, and then NW vs Stanford beginning of this year which were all brutal last play garbage. Those sting. I can’t ever recall thinking something that happened in 1st half equating to a bad beat, lol.

Just remembered that Redkins MNF game you were talking about. I got hosed in that one too. I believe I had a Redskins/under parlay in that one and the garbage score at the end crushed both my bets.

[2daBank]

Just remembered that Redkins MNF game you were talking about. I got hosed in that one too. I believe I had a Redskins/under parlay in that one and the garbage score at the end crushed both my bets.

I was def on one or the other, probably both, I forget, under sounds right for me . lol

[U2.5]

I know this is the college thread, and I'm not trying to clutter it up with off topic stuff, but you guys are all pretty sharp in here so I can't help it. Chargers +5 tonight? Books took a bath on NFL yesterday and I read most books getting a ton of Chiefs money.

For what it's worth the altitude in this game will probably play a huge factor in the kicking game. The chiefs have a phenomenal fg kicker. for reference the altitude in denver broncos stadium is 5,280 feet according to google, and tonights game will be played at 7,200 feet at estadio azteca stadium. I think the chargers got there first to acclimate to the conditions faster, but I could be wrong. Either way I think the over is the play here. fg kicks should be easy, and it's easier to play offense than defense when you're winded. I am taking the over based on that angle, along with the fact the chiefs run defense is weak, and the chiefs pass offense is strong.

[2daBank]

Been killing myself last 30 min on the Pitt/vatech game., we been so good with both these teams I really felt like this should be fairly easy to figure out but that may have been a foolish assumption, lol.

Regardless what I come up with if I liked Hokies am late to the party as -3 is now gone as I see some 3.5s and 4s popping. I’m glad I didn’t jump at my initial thoughts tho, I see things I like about panthers as well and if this line does in fact hit 4 or better I can see them making sense.,

Pros and cons for both:

The run game has been big in Hokies resurgence, pretty big correlation the games they have done well their yards and yards per attempt been very good (minus the Irish game where defense and turnover kept them in it).. I do not expect them to enjoy nearly that kind of success on the ground vs a excellent panthers front 7 who 9th in the country allowing only 2.9 per rush.

Hokies on the other hand hold advantage in the red zone where both defenses very strong but Hokies d a top 10 unit. Panthers red zone offense on the other hand been pretty poor only ranking 99th in country at under 80% td rate. Vatech offense is once again top 10 in red zone success and they sport the more accurate kicker.

Question becomes can panthers excellent run defense prevent Hokies from getting red zone chances? Where I feel panthers will have little more success moving the ball but might not cash in the scoring chances as panthers also rank better at 3rd down offense and defense which should get them more chances.

Really a tough game w 2 teams we have had lot of success on and against all year. At this point missing the -3 on Hokies and the more I look I think if we can get Pitt at +4 or better they worth a serious look.

[U2.5]

I got the over at 52.5 just to be clear on that.

[2daBank]

Matter fact I do have a play already. Little shocking it a fav but even tho not always my fav thing have had pretty good success recently only taking them sparingly. I love this number, we see where it goes but here it is, 1st play of week:

Gophers -12.5

Adding:

Temple/cincy un 47.5

As I said, I’m not sure these guys get into the 40s, feel like they came high with this one.,

[shopbar picks]

I don't see Ohio covering 20 tonight. My sheet says 10

[ElJefe305]

Miami -18.5 already locked it in

[Buckandadime]

Anybody have any thoughts on the late game Saturday night?
The total is 51 and I think that's 10 too high for a SD St. game..
In Hawaii, yes but State has only hit the 44+ total 2/10x this year..
Vs. Wyoming and @ SJST in back to back weeks a month ago..
Am I missing something?

[2daBank]

Anybody have any thoughts on the late game Saturday night?
The total is 51 and I think that's 10 too high for a SD St. game..
In Hawaii, yes but State has only hit the 44+ total 2/10x this year..
Vs. Wyoming and @ SJST in back to back weeks a month ago..
Am I missing something?

That game gives me a headache. Very similar to the Fresno game and SDst dictated pace/scoring in that one. My perception is Hawaii passing offense a tougher matchup for Aztecs but I havnt dug in yet.,

[2daBank]

I don't see Ohio covering 20 tonight. My sheet says 10

I have no clue on the Mac brotha, It part the reason i started thread early so ya’ll that do could give us some ideas. Full NHL card tonight so I don’t foresee having any maction! Gl tho

[SilverTongueFox]

Let’s go! Tuesday MAC football. Woohoo!
EM/NIU under tonight boyz.

NBA play: if Rubio is back in line up tonight take Suns over Kings.

[Buckandadime]

That game gives me a headache. Very similar to the Fresno game and SDst dictated pace/scoring in that one. My perception is Hawaii passing offense a tougher matchup for Aztecs but I havnt dug in yet.,

Cool..
Be waiting on your thoughts..
Haven't pulled the trigger yet..

[2daBank]

Cool..
Be waiting on your thoughts..
Haven't pulled the trigger yet..

These matchups with polar opposite teams so tough. Really comes down to figuring out who style gonna win out, sometimes easy to figure out but think pretty tough here. I do not think I could play a Hawaii under at that low a total. Their defense is so bad while I’m sure Aztecs will grind it out not sure they can help but score??

Think you much better off being a passing team vs SDst than relying on rushing attack. The 2 most similar Aztec opponents id say were sjst and Utah st, sjst scored 17, Utah st scored 23 and beat them. Seems like the teams who chucked it a bunch had slightly more success vs Aztecs than the run reliant teams.

Turnovers be a concern for Hawaii but I think we can safely assume they get into the 20s at least as they have every game this year (minimum). So guess it comes down to what Aztecs can score?? Hawaii has only held 3 teams under 20. If you made me play it I think I’d have to go over but wouldn’t feel good bout it. Lol (think I said sane thing w SDst last week, luckily didn’t have to play it! Lol).,

Actually scratch that, i fully understand the under the more i try to put a score on it. (Told you I thought it was tough! Lol). My best guess right now would be 26-23 type game..

[Buckandadime]

These matchups with polar opposite teams so tough. Really comes down to figuring out who style gonna win out, sometimes easy to figure out but think pretty tough here. I do not think I could play a Hawaii under at that low a total. Their defense is so bad while I’m sure Aztecs will grind it out not sure they can help but score??

Think you much better off being a passing team vs SDst than relying on rushing attack. The 2 most similar Aztec opponents id say were sjst and Utah st, sjst scored 17, Utah st scored 23 and beat them. Seems like the teams who chucked it a bunch had slightly more success vs Aztecs than the run reliant teams.

Turnovers be a concern for Hawaii but I think we can safely assume they get into the 20s at least as they have every game this year (minimum). So guess it comes down to what Aztecs can score?? Hawaii has only held 3 teams under 20. If you made me play it I think I’d have to go over but wouldn’t feel good bout it. Lol (think I said sane thing w SDst last week, luckily didn’t have to play it! Lol).,

Actually scratch that, i fully understand the under the more i try to put a score on it. (Told you I thought it was tough! Lol). My best guess right now would be 26-23 type game..

Ugh!!! Lol
Think I'll throw it in the teaser pile..
Make more sense @58..
May even go up another point before kick off..
Wouldn't surprise at all if SD went with a nikel type D all night..
Just daring Hawaii to run..
Thanks Banker

[2daBank]

Ugh!!! Lol
Think I'll throw it in the teaser pile..
Make more sense @58..
May even go up another point before kick off..
Thanks Banker

Sorry i can’t be more help, just think there many easier games I have a read on than this one. Maybe someone else will chime in with better incite than I feel I have. Mid 20s to low 20s score does seem about right. Gl whatever you decide.

[Buckandadime]

Sorry i can’t be more help, just think there many easier games I have a read on than this one. Maybe someone else will chime in with better incite than I feel I have. Mid 20s to low 20s score does seem about right. Gl whatever you decide.

It's all good
People see different things..
What you perceive as easy, I may see as difficult and vice versa...
So many games..
So little time..
GL Banker..

[2daBank]

It's all good
People see different things..
What you perceive as easy, I may see as difficult and vice versa...
So many games..
So little time..
GL Banker..

If you looking for totals to tease up the one I posted already I think be a very good option. It would take all kinds of unusual events for temple/cincy to get into the 50s.

[Buckandadime]

If you looking for totals to tease up the one I posted already I think be a very good option. It would take all kinds of unusual events for temple/cincy to get into the 50s.

I dunno man..
If anything, I would tease it down to 39-40 and play the over..
I don't think either team will be able to run with success..
We never agree on anything
That's a good thing though..

[2daBank]

I dunno man..
If anything, I would tease it down to 39-40 and play the over..
I don't think either team will be able to run with success..
We never agree on anything
That's a good thing though..

lol. Certainly seems that way. You suck!!! Lmfao.,


Sounds like might be a lot of weather issues this week. If anyone sees games this gonna be a issue please post them up!! Midwest and east looks like lot of chances for rain and snow..

[Buckandadime]

lol. Certainly seems that way. You suck!!! Lmfao.,


Sounds like might be a lot of weather issues this week. If anyone sees games this gonna be a issue please post them up!! Midwest and east looks like lot of chances for rain and snow..

Houston/TU supposed to be sunny and 50 degrees..
About all I can help you with..

Oops.. Night game..
Clear and 40's..
No wind..

[2daBank]

Houston/TU supposed to be sunny and 50 degrees..
About all I can help you with..

Did I ask for good weather??!

Lmao. J/j

Hopefully others will be more helpful, like I was in Hawaii Game! (Gotta take shots at myself too ).,

[biggie12]

banker o55.5 in ohio game tonight ?

[PAULYPOKER]

Everyone and their mother on Minnesota like fly colonies on shit.............

[2daBank]

banker o55.5 in ohio game tonight ?

Your guess prob better than mine brother. As mentioned I don’t really do the Mac. Hopefully someone else can give you some better incite than I,

Looks like a game that gonna have a ton of rushing attempts which obviously not ideal for the over. Also looks like a huge mismatch on paper, my general feeling on totals like these if you think dog has a good chance of staying inside number the over usually has much better chance of cashing. I dunno if that the case here or not?

[asiagambler]

Small bet on Northern Illinois -4

Giving up 14 points to Akron is bad enough but Akron actually had more chances in the red zone they couldn't convert against Eastern Michigan last week

Eastern Michigan defense is bottom 20 in both rushing success rate and passing success rate. Their stuff rate and havoc rate are even worse (#130 and #123). If Akron can have 300+ yards of offense on them, then Northern Illinois shouldn't have too many issues. They have a good 2 QB system going with Ross Bowers turning into a decent thrower and Marcus Childers as a change of pace for his dual threat ability.

Nothern Illinois run defense is pretty good (for a MAC school). Allowing less than 40% rushing success rate. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan can't really run the ball aside from 6 yards/attempt against Akron. NIU should shut down the ground game and force them to be one-dimensional.

I should add that EMU is very efficient through the air and NIU is very poor allowing explosive pass plays and is 117th in interception percentage (1.23%). But there is actually some fog in Dekalb which obviously hurts the passing game for both sides. I don't think EMU can win or cover this just from throwing it

[Buckandadime]

Small bet on Northern Illinois -4

Giving up 14 points to Akron is bad enough but Akron actually had more chances in the red zone they couldn't convert against Eastern Michigan last week

Eastern Michigan defense is bottom 20 in both rushing success rate and passing success rate. Their stuff rate and havoc rate are even worse (#130 and #123). If Akron can have 300+ yards of offense on them, then Northern Illinois shouldn't have too many issues. They have a good 2 QB system going with Ross Bowers turning into a decent thrower and Marcus Childers as a change of pace for his dual threat ability.

Nothern Illinois run defense is pretty good (for a MAC school). Allowing less than 40% rushing success rate. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan can't really run the ball aside from 6 yards/attempt against Akron. NIU should shut down the ground game and force them to be one-dimensional.

I should add that EMU is very efficient through the air and NIU is very poor allowing explosive pass plays and is 117th in interception percentage (1.23%). But there is actually some fog in Dekalb which obviously hurts the passing game for both sides. I don't think EMU can win or cover this just from throwing it

Damn...
Fog gonna penetrate with the over isn't it?
Unless they can't find the ball..