I have already bet it, because I think its +EV
Mariners ML -180
Orioles + 1 1/2 -120
Mariners ML $990 to win $550
Orioles + 1 1/2 $840 to win $700
So that means the risk is $290 to win $1250 which comes out to better than +400, its actually almost +440.
I dont know what is the percentage of time a home team wins by exactly 1 when the total is 7, but I am thinking its got to be at least 20%. That in itself would make this +EV because at +440 you only need about 18%.
I doubt this game even sees the 7. I would say closer to a 2-1, 3-1, or 3-2 game. Cant bet a game under 7, but if I had to play the total it would be under not over.
Two crap offenses, two good pitchers, two good bullpens who didnt get used much in last nights 3-1 final.
If this game gets to the 6th or 7th tied or as a one run game, I say it becomes like a 50/50 shot of hitting this, and I think a 0-0 or 1-1 game into the 6th is very likely.
I already bet it, just not for as much as the numbers I used above for illustration. Still I have it at about $145 to win $625.
Dont have to worry about rain out here either, Seattle has roof.
So am I crazy, or is this +EV.
Mariners ML -180
Orioles + 1 1/2 -120
Mariners ML $990 to win $550
Orioles + 1 1/2 $840 to win $700
So that means the risk is $290 to win $1250 which comes out to better than +400, its actually almost +440.
I dont know what is the percentage of time a home team wins by exactly 1 when the total is 7, but I am thinking its got to be at least 20%. That in itself would make this +EV because at +440 you only need about 18%.
I doubt this game even sees the 7. I would say closer to a 2-1, 3-1, or 3-2 game. Cant bet a game under 7, but if I had to play the total it would be under not over.
Two crap offenses, two good pitchers, two good bullpens who didnt get used much in last nights 3-1 final.
If this game gets to the 6th or 7th tied or as a one run game, I say it becomes like a 50/50 shot of hitting this, and I think a 0-0 or 1-1 game into the 6th is very likely.
I already bet it, just not for as much as the numbers I used above for illustration. Still I have it at about $145 to win $625.
Dont have to worry about rain out here either, Seattle has roof.
So am I crazy, or is this +EV.