5Dimes has the Kings favored in the series against the Canucks at -140/+120 but a dog at home in Game 4 at -115/-105. If the favored Canucks win Game 4, they will be about -180 to win the series, so why are the Kings -140 for the series before the game?
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"If" the Canucks win. Big "if".
No, it's not a strange or bad line. If the Kings win tomorrow they'll only need one more win. What would the series price be if that happens?Comment -
seems like a pretty reasonable line to meComment -
-115 is only about a 53% chance that the Canucks win this game. Canucks closed -180 at home on Saturday which is a 65% chance of winning. If these numbers are correct:
53% chance Canucks tonight
65% chance Canucks at home for game 5
53% game 6
65% game 7
So on average the Canucks are 59% to win any given game. They have to win 3 out of the next 4 (75%) so it is pretty easy to see how they are the underdog in the series.
If they do win tonight, it will change the odds and make them a favourite as they will be about 61% on average to win each of the final 3 games (2 home and 1 away). That should make them a -160 favourite or so.
Kings are -140 right now which is about a 59% chance of winning the series. They are 41% in each game and would have to only win 25% (1 out of the remaining 4) to lose the series.
Bottom line is the numbers seem right to me.
I'm relatively new at this numbers game so if I have done something wrong in my calculations above, someone please correct me.Comment -
Indeed fishy..Comment -
indeed indeedOriginally posted by necroComment -
Seem right to me as wellComment -
Seems right.
On any given night you may want to take the higher seed but overall you need to give it to the team who's up in the series.Comment -
Thats what happens when you get a 20 cent line and they start taking vig out of both sides. They usually only take the vig off the favorite. In ML plays anyay.
Straight plays and series play pools are also seperate so they might be looking to balance alittle bit of action somewhere. Also might depend on the limits for each offering, and so they might also be gambling a little bit.
Either way the dont add up correctly, but not horribley 'off', the 20 cent line just makes it look alitle worse than it really is.Comment -
There is a similar situation at Pinnacle with Utah/Denver. Series tied 1-1, but Denver is a -160 fav, while Utah is a -140 fav at home in the next game. It is a stranger line and one I wouldnt think will last that long because Utah is going to be a decent fav in 3 of the next 6 games. So Denver is going to have to win at least one game on the road to win that series. So at odds of +125 per game (3)is a -160 for the series a fair number?Comment
