ChuteBoxe's Strikeforce Nashville Picks and Writeups

[ChuteBoxe]

Will be out for most of the day, won't have writeups till later on, but wanted to get the picks in before lines change.

Melendez (-160) for 4 Units
Lawal (+205) risking 2 Units
Henderson (-410) for 1 Unit

[ChuteBoxe]

Gilbert Melendez (-160) vs. Shinya Aoki (+140)

This is a funky fight, and depending on how you break it down, decides which side has value for you. Melendez is a tad high at -160, IMO, but it's the right play. I had it capped around -135 or -140, was hoping to split straws, and maybe see a move down to -150, but that didn't happen. So, I bet it at Bookmaker and it's steamed up since. I'd imagine once I officially release this, it will steam up a little at 5Dimes as well, so get it in early if you can.

This fight is a clash of styles, where you have a Japanese judo and bjj expert, against a very well-rounded fighter in Gilbert Melendez. Melendez also has great cardio, FWIW. I really see this as Gilbert's fight to lose, and it's a solid matchup for him. I think Aoki's kickboxing is very subpar, and that will hurt him substantially in this fight. It will allow Melendez to dictate the pace. Melendez is a great wrestler, with a good sprawl. Aoki would have to shoot in, and do something impressive to take down Gilbert. I think Gilbert learned from the Guida and Thompson fights, and will stay on the outside and work his jabs and thai kicks.

Even if this fight goes to the ground, Melendez is a very underrated BJJ artist. People tend to forget he trains with Caesar Gracie Jiu Jitsu, and guys like the Diaz brothers. Aoki is very good in his ownright (#2 world ranking), but I'm really having troulbe these days respecting those worldwide rankings, because let's be honest, Japanese MMA is very soft, and the matchmakers set up fights based on the excitement factor.

GILBERT MELENDEZ (-160) FOR 4 UNITS


Gegard Mousasi (-250) vs. King Mo Lawal(+210)

A solid Armenian striker vs. a very solid NCAA Champion wrestler from Oklahoma State University. Lawal was also an olympic hopeful, but he lost in the finals in 2008 with 7 seconds to go in the final match of qualifications. Mousasi is no joke, and has a tremendous track record in his own right, beating solid opponents like Babalu, Jacare, Kang, Cyborg, etc...

However, at +210 i see excellent value in King Mo. It won't be an easy fight, by any means, but I think he'll use his boxing skills to throw off Mousasi, and set up takedowns at the end of rounds to score some points. I think it goes to decision, with neither fighter being able to take out the other. Many different ways for this fight to go, and I just can't lay -250, against an impressive up and coming fighter like King Mo.

KING MO LAWAL (+210) RISKING 2 UNITS


Dan Henderson (-410) vs. Jake Shields (+330)

Reasons I dislike Jake Shields...

Henderson's olympic style wrestling will be too good for Jake Shields. Shields is also the smaller guy naturally moving up to 170. While Hendo will prob move up in weight after this fight, or at least that's the rumor. Hendo's not a great boxer, but it's still light years ahead of Shields in my opinion. Shields has also had Cardio issues in the past, and has documented problems with big name fighters. I really see no way for Dan Henderson to lose this fight, maybe if he gets in trouble on the ground somehow and is mounted, but I think 9/10 times Dan Henderson wins this fight. Tremendous value in -410. If I liked chalk, I would lay way more than 1 unit.

DAN HENDERSON (-410) FOR 1 UNIT

[flyingillini]

Jake and Gil both will win.

[pat venditto]

Is this going to be televised tonight?

[ChuteBoxe]

Is this going to be televised tonight?

Yup, for free on CBS.

[flyingillini]

Wow, Gilbert is now -150 at my book!

[flyingillini]

Gilbert is going to have a great showing tonight. Lets go Gil and Jake!

[illmatick]

Illini what's the King Mo line at heritage?

[flyingillini]

+195 and Gil is still -150

[illmatick]

Gl, hope you're heavy on GIL

[flyingillini]

I am heavy on Gil and Jake. Tonight is going to be a weird night for Gegard. He is either going to make a real statement or get beat to a pulp. I see him probably winning though but who knows.

[ChuteBoxe]

King Mo with the decisive win!

[ChuteBoxe]

Jake and Gil both will win.

Nice call with Jake bud.

[ChuteBoxe]

Melendez (-160) for 4 Units (+4.00)
King Mo Lawal (+205) risking 2 Units (+4.10)
Henderson (-410) for 1 Unit (-4.10)

Strikeforce Nashville: 2-1 (+4.00)
Since 1.1.09: 52-30 (+41.59)

[clarkd32]

appreciate the writeups and posting them.

[illmatick]

I am heavy on Gil and Jake. Tonight is going to be a weird night for Gegard. He is either going to make a real statement or get beat to a pulp. I see him probably winning though but who knows.

Illini is fukin sharp when it comes to California mma fighters