How much is a half point worth on NBA Team Totals?

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  • JohnGalt2341
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-31-09
    • 9138

    #1
    How much is a half point worth on NBA Team Totals?
    Let's say I bet on every single NBA Team Total for the last 10 years and I won exactly 50.00% of my plays. If I were given a half point what percentage of my plays would I likely have won? I'm guessing it would be around 51.50%? Does anyone know what percentage a half point is worth? Thanks.
  • Harry N. Lloyd
    SBR MVP
    • 03-26-08
    • 4810

    #2
    Typically buying an extra half point costs about 10% more on the vig, so instead of betting $110 to make $100 you'd have to bet $120 to make $100. It is definitely not worth the cost of buying the extra half point if that is what you are thinking.
    Comment
    • JohnGalt2341
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 12-31-09
      • 9138

      #3
      Originally posted by Harry N. Lloyd
      Typically buying an extra half point costs about 10% more on the vig, so instead of betting $110 to make $100 you'd have to bet $120 to make $100. It is definitely not worth the cost of buying the extra half point if that is what you are thinking.
      My angle is a little bit different. I'm just trying to figure out the actual percentage value of a half point. If a half point costs you -120 vs -110 then that means that the sportsbooks are valuing a half point at around 2.17%... but of course they are charging you juice. Basically I'm trying to figure out how much juice they are actually charging you on that half point. I'm nearly certain that if you took a half point on all of the NBA Team Totals over the last 10 years you would have won less than 52.17% of your plays(assuming you would have won exactly 50% of your plays otherwise). My question is, what percentage of your plays would you have actually won if you would have taken the half point?
      Comment
      • unusialsusp5
        SBR MVP
        • 04-18-10
        • 4198

        #4
        Originally posted by JohnGalt2341
        My angle is a little bit different. I'm just trying to figure out the actual percentage value of a half point. If a half point costs you -120 vs -110 then that means that the sportsbooks are valuing a half point at around 2.17%... but of course they are charging you juice. Basically I'm trying to figure out how much juice they are actually charging you on that half point. I'm nearly certain that if you took a half point on all of the NBA Team Totals over the last 10 years you would have won less than 52.17% of your plays(assuming you would have won exactly 50% of your plays otherwise). My question is, what percentage of your plays would you have actually won if you would have taken the half point?
        you would have to go over every game in the last 10 years to determine this. not feasible. then half of them would depend on whether you bet over or under. in recent years over bettors have suffered because a team with a decent lead late just dribble out the clock and the opponents just let them. apparently the team with the lead doesn't want to rub it in by trying to score in the last 12 seconds or so. if i were a player i wouldn't mind getting 2 or 3 points added to my game total. just keep playing until their is no time left like they used to would help over bettors more than that 1/2 point which is not worth 10% to buy.
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        • danshan11
          SBR MVP
          • 07-08-17
          • 4101

          #5
          use oddsportal and sportsdatabase to get an idea. a half point is like any other line, it is very close to true probability plus juice so it does not change anything in the sense of edge, you get what you pay for implied plus juice. If you want an edge find where the line is a half point off and will move that half point and now you are cooking with gas!
          Comment
          • sheedy17
            SBR Sharp
            • 08-02-18
            • 453

            #6
            I always buy a point on the spread or totals and I can tell you ive won MANY times because of it. The data I wouldn't have to say how much more, but a lot of the times it makes a difference
            Comment
            • SharpAngles
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 04-15-14
              • 9467

              #7
              7.5 cents for a half point is my rough guideline for NBA sides and totals. If I can get it cheaper I’ll buy it, if it’s more I stay away.
              Comment
              • thomorino
                Restricted User
                • 06-01-17
                • 45842

                #8
                Originally posted by JohnGalt2341
                My angle is a little bit different. I'm just trying to figure out the actual percentage value of a half point. If a half point costs you -120 vs -110 then that means that the sportsbooks are valuing a half point at around 2.17%... but of course they are charging you juice. Basically I'm trying to figure out how much juice they are actually charging you on that half point. I'm nearly certain that if you took a half point on all of the NBA Team Totals over the last 10 years you would have won less than 52.17% of your plays(assuming you would have won exactly 50% of your plays otherwise). My question is, what percentage of your plays would you have actually won if you would have taken the half point?
                Its worth close to nothing now because the games are higher scoring - a couple of years ago in games with teams like Memphis where the totals were in the 180s there was value but if the total is 225-240 the value of 1 point is much less because an up tempo games its less likely a total will fall on a give number
                Comment
                • MinnesotaFats
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 12-18-10
                  • 14758

                  #9
                  It's only worth buying if you are a chase better IMHO

                  if I'm going 100, 150, 300, 600

                  Hoping to win 1/4 then restart the system then yes, the hook is worth factoring into the price of the bet
                  Comment
                  • SharpAngles
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 04-15-14
                    • 9467

                    #10
                    Originally posted by thomorino
                    Its worth close to nothing now because the games are higher scoring - a couple of years ago in games with teams like Memphis where the totals were in the 180s there was value but if the total is 225-240 the value of 1 point is much less because an up tempo games its less likely a total will fall on a give number
                    Close to nothing? Edges are so slim in NBA sometimes the push odds are worth way more than “close to nothing”. The oddsmakers know all about the new rules and scoring trends believe me.
                    Comment
                    • TommieGunshot
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-27-12
                      • 1601

                      #11
                      My first thought is that the value of a half point on a team total might be very close to a 1h total. If that is true, the answer you’re looking for is just under 52%.

                      Getting an extra half point at reduced juice is almost certainly profitable
                      Comment
                      • BuckyOne
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-02-15
                        • 2728

                        #12
                        Go to someplace like Heritage who lets you buy or sell points. Compare the juice up or down. That gives us the the prices to move the line - what they think a hook is worth. Ok let’s grade a nice sample of games and charge ourself the juice or give us credit on 1/2, 1,etc. and let’s see how we grade out.
                        Comment
                        • pavyracer
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 04-12-07
                          • 82655

                          #13
                          Buying points in totals is books best friend. They love to see players pay unnecessary juice. It's like buying flood insurance when you live in the desert.
                          Comment
                          • jjgold
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 07-20-05
                            • 388179

                            #14
                            😃👋 all true actually

                            Originally posted by pavyracer
                            Buying points in totals is books best friend. They love to see players pay unnecessary juice. It's like buying flood insurance when you live in the desert.
                            Comment
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