1. #1
    JohnGalt2341
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    How much is a half point worth on NBA Team Totals?

    Let's say I bet on every single NBA Team Total for the last 10 years and I won exactly 50.00% of my plays. If I were given a half point what percentage of my plays would I likely have won? I'm guessing it would be around 51.50%? Does anyone know what percentage a half point is worth? Thanks.

  2. #2
    Harry N. Lloyd
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    Typically buying an extra half point costs about 10% more on the vig, so instead of betting $110 to make $100 you'd have to bet $120 to make $100. It is definitely not worth the cost of buying the extra half point if that is what you are thinking.

  3. #3
    JohnGalt2341
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harry N. Lloyd View Post
    Typically buying an extra half point costs about 10% more on the vig, so instead of betting $110 to make $100 you'd have to bet $120 to make $100. It is definitely not worth the cost of buying the extra half point if that is what you are thinking.
    My angle is a little bit different. I'm just trying to figure out the actual percentage value of a half point. If a half point costs you -120 vs -110 then that means that the sportsbooks are valuing a half point at around 2.17%... but of course they are charging you juice. Basically I'm trying to figure out how much juice they are actually charging you on that half point. I'm nearly certain that if you took a half point on all of the NBA Team Totals over the last 10 years you would have won less than 52.17% of your plays(assuming you would have won exactly 50% of your plays otherwise). My question is, what percentage of your plays would you have actually won if you would have taken the half point?

  4. #4
    unusialsusp5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGalt2341 View Post
    My angle is a little bit different. I'm just trying to figure out the actual percentage value of a half point. If a half point costs you -120 vs -110 then that means that the sportsbooks are valuing a half point at around 2.17%... but of course they are charging you juice. Basically I'm trying to figure out how much juice they are actually charging you on that half point. I'm nearly certain that if you took a half point on all of the NBA Team Totals over the last 10 years you would have won less than 52.17% of your plays(assuming you would have won exactly 50% of your plays otherwise). My question is, what percentage of your plays would you have actually won if you would have taken the half point?
    you would have to go over every game in the last 10 years to determine this. not feasible. then half of them would depend on whether you bet over or under. in recent years over bettors have suffered because a team with a decent lead late just dribble out the clock and the opponents just let them. apparently the team with the lead doesn't want to rub it in by trying to score in the last 12 seconds or so. if i were a player i wouldn't mind getting 2 or 3 points added to my game total. just keep playing until their is no time left like they used to would help over bettors more than that 1/2 point which is not worth 10% to buy.

  5. #5
    danshan11
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    use oddsportal and sportsdatabase to get an idea. a half point is like any other line, it is very close to true probability plus juice so it does not change anything in the sense of edge, you get what you pay for implied plus juice. If you want an edge find where the line is a half point off and will move that half point and now you are cooking with gas!

  6. #6
    sheedy17
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    I always buy a point on the spread or totals and I can tell you ive won MANY times because of it. The data I wouldn't have to say how much more, but a lot of the times it makes a difference

  7. #7
    SharpAngles
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    7.5 cents for a half point is my rough guideline for NBA sides and totals. If I can get it cheaper I’ll buy it, if it’s more I stay away.

  8. #8
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGalt2341 View Post
    My angle is a little bit different. I'm just trying to figure out the actual percentage value of a half point. If a half point costs you -120 vs -110 then that means that the sportsbooks are valuing a half point at around 2.17%... but of course they are charging you juice. Basically I'm trying to figure out how much juice they are actually charging you on that half point. I'm nearly certain that if you took a half point on all of the NBA Team Totals over the last 10 years you would have won less than 52.17% of your plays(assuming you would have won exactly 50% of your plays otherwise). My question is, what percentage of your plays would you have actually won if you would have taken the half point?
    Its worth close to nothing now because the games are higher scoring - a couple of years ago in games with teams like Memphis where the totals were in the 180s there was value but if the total is 225-240 the value of 1 point is much less because an up tempo games its less likely a total will fall on a give number
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  9. #9
    MinnesotaFats
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    It's only worth buying if you are a chase better IMHO

    if I'm going 100, 150, 300, 600

    Hoping to win 1/4 then restart the system then yes, the hook is worth factoring into the price of the bet

  10. #10
    SharpAngles
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    Its worth close to nothing now because the games are higher scoring - a couple of years ago in games with teams like Memphis where the totals were in the 180s there was value but if the total is 225-240 the value of 1 point is much less because an up tempo games its less likely a total will fall on a give number
    Close to nothing? Edges are so slim in NBA sometimes the push odds are worth way more than “close to nothing”. The oddsmakers know all about the new rules and scoring trends believe me.

  11. #11
    TommieGunshot
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    My first thought is that the value of a half point on a team total might be very close to a 1h total. If that is true, the answer youíre looking for is just under 52%.

    Getting an extra half point at reduced juice is almost certainly profitable

  12. #12
    BuckyOne
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    Go to someplace like Heritage who lets you buy or sell points. Compare the juice up or down. That gives us the the prices to move the line - what they think a hook is worth. Ok letís grade a nice sample of games and charge ourself the juice or give us credit on 1/2, 1,etc. and letís see how we grade out.

  13. #13
    pavyracer
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    Buying points in totals is books best friend. They love to see players pay unnecessary juice. It's like buying flood insurance when you live in the desert.
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  14. #14
    jjgold
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    😃👋 all true actually

    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Buying points in totals is books best friend. They love to see players pay unnecessary juice. It's like buying flood insurance when you live in the desert.

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