UMMMMMMM Duke Steal Anyone?

ZetaPsi808 · 04-01-10, 02:41 AM

thanks for the alert pal. will try to hedge at +111 and -110 for 1K on each side.

ZetaPsi808 · 04-01-10, 02:45 AM

most people do not bet at matchbook until it is the day of the game. the closer to game time, the liquidity, offer sizes both go up. but we do not need 3 threads on this now. lol!

illfuuptn · 04-01-10, 02:45 AM

how could you get them at +111?

ZetaPsi808 · 04-01-10, 02:47 AM

you must not understand how matchbook works.

read the whole thread

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/373331-someone-pitch-me-why-i-should-have-matchbook-out.html

illfuuptn · 04-01-10, 02:53 AM

Sorry to be such a noob, but that thread didn't really explain it. Can you give me some good insight? Please?

ZetaPsi808 · 04-01-10, 02:59 AM

this post should help.

Originally posted by ZetaPsi808

yeah fishhead is right.

say you make an offer on lakers -7 to beat denver at even money risking 1000 to win 1000.

someone accepts it. so they have denver +7 at $1000 even money. win or lose, matchbook pays you .2% of the lower amount of your offer. so in this case, they pay you $2 commission. that money goes right into your account balance after the game ends. if it is a push then you get no commission credit

now the cool part is, b/c of commission, the bet is $998 to win $1002. and that makes a big difference in the long run

so, if you take duke -2.5 +110 risking 100 to win 110, i have WVU +2.5 -110 risking 110 to win 100

illfuuptn · 04-01-10, 03:03 AM

oh i get it now...but he's still clearly taking the worst of it. If the normal books list it at -2.5 and +2.5 both at -110 then the true odds are even on both sides, so the people betting WV -110 are making a big mistake correct?

ZetaPsi808 · 04-01-10, 03:13 AM

matchbook offers just follow other books. most books have higher juice on the WV +2.5 line, such as -115, compared to duke -2.5 -105. matchbook markets will reflect those odds, but with a 1 cent line. remember matchbook sets the spread, but matchbook players like you and me control the juice.

also, i think anytime a line is duke -2.5 across sbrlines.com and you can get duke -2.5 at +110, there is value there.

illfuuptn · 04-01-10, 03:17 AM

but you can't get wv at +110

ZetaPsi808 · 04-01-10, 03:19 AM

there i edited for you

illfuuptn · 04-01-10, 03:27 AM

ok I know that, but all I'm saying is those guys should bet/set the line by betting WV @ like even, why would they match what other sportsbooks have when they could get better odds?

MonkeyF0cker · 04-01-10, 03:57 AM

Originally posted by ZetaPsi808

thanks for the alert pal. will try to hedge at +111 and -110 for 1K on each side.

Sweet. A $10 scalp. You must be a fan of Fishhead's.

hoopster42 · 04-01-10, 04:59 AM

"if it looks too good to be true..........."

LT Profits · 04-01-10, 06:34 AM

Well I'm on West Virginia Money Line, so this won't help me, but yes, anyone betting this game ATS should bet Duke -2.5 at +110. Those that like Duke let it ride and those that like West Virginia can bet WVA at another book for more and in essence get reduced or no juice.

LT Profits · 04-01-10, 06:46 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Well I'm on West Virginia Money Line, so this won't help me, but yes, anyone betting this game ATS should bet Duke -2.5 at +110. Those that like Duke let it ride and those that like West Virginia can bet WVA at another book for more and in essence get reduced or no juice.

My lack of sleep is apparent.

This would only reduce your risk if you can get West Virginia at less than -110 elsewhere, or if you can get Duke at +111 or more.

Carry on.

ZetaPsi808 · 04-01-10, 01:34 PM

monkey focker, i will be scalping this at bookmaker, so i get 1000 bet points, and clear about 30% of the necessary rollover for my recent deposit. hopefully the bookmaker side loses so i am eligible for another reload at bookmaker with a fresh rollover requirement.