Nate Quarry (-260) for 1 Unit
This is a battle between two very hard hitting middleweights. I've always been a Jorge Rivera fan since he first came into UFC. Surprising, I know, considering he's a Red Sox fan. I guess I'm a sucker for a blue collar guy, a construction worker in Rivera's case, who has a hell of a right hook. With that said, I generally like to avoid betting against solid strikers with heavy hands at anything over -200. Yet, here we are, laying -260. Why? I really feel this contest comes down to underhooks and control, along with dirty boxing. That's where Nate Quarry's Greco Roman skills come into play. I also feel that Quarry has a better chin, and better ground and pound should the contest wind up on the ground.
Roy Nelson (-340) for 1 Unit
Total mismatch for Stefan Struve. I don’t see how he can honestly compete in this fight. His strikes will do nothing to Big Country Nelson, IMO. The whole point of this fight for UFC and matchmaker Joe Silva, is to showcase their TUF star, as it's been widely pointed out to the MMA community that Nelson is signed for 6 fights. Struve obviously has the reach advantage in the fight, but he doesn't have the power to take down a guy like Roy Nelson. Nelson has very heavy hands, and is a great striker. Many people forget that Nelson had a decent MMA career before even entering the Ultimate Fighter TV Show, and is a natural born brawler. Struve's ground game is all about using his long limbs against his opponents, and that's not happening against a guy as fat as Roy Nelson, simply put. It's just a bad mismatch for him, and I look for the TKO midway through the fight. This looks impressive to the general TV audience since Struve is 9 feet tall, and Nelson is just a big fat guy.
Value Parlay (-128) for 3 Units
Kenny Florian (-290)
Gomi just doesn't have the experience he needs to excel in this bout. If you look at the list of the fighters he has fought in his days in Pride, no one is truly impressive. Gomi's wrestling is very solid, but not overall impressive for Kenny Florian, whose only loss recently was to BJ Penn. Welcome to UFC Takanori Gomi, sorry you didn't get an easier first fight.
Gleison Tibau (-310)
One of the better values on the board. Overall, it's a very chalky UFC tonight, and I wanted something to parlay with Ken-Flo. Basic analysis...Tibau > Camoes, and Camoes dominated Uno before his low blow disqualified him and ended the fight in Caol Uno’s favor. Uno's best day's in the UFC are behind him. This is just another payday for a fighter at the end of his career, and a hope of getting lucky and getting another check.
This is a battle between two very hard hitting middleweights. I've always been a Jorge Rivera fan since he first came into UFC. Surprising, I know, considering he's a Red Sox fan. I guess I'm a sucker for a blue collar guy, a construction worker in Rivera's case, who has a hell of a right hook. With that said, I generally like to avoid betting against solid strikers with heavy hands at anything over -200. Yet, here we are, laying -260. Why? I really feel this contest comes down to underhooks and control, along with dirty boxing. That's where Nate Quarry's Greco Roman skills come into play. I also feel that Quarry has a better chin, and better ground and pound should the contest wind up on the ground.
Roy Nelson (-340) for 1 Unit
Total mismatch for Stefan Struve. I don’t see how he can honestly compete in this fight. His strikes will do nothing to Big Country Nelson, IMO. The whole point of this fight for UFC and matchmaker Joe Silva, is to showcase their TUF star, as it's been widely pointed out to the MMA community that Nelson is signed for 6 fights. Struve obviously has the reach advantage in the fight, but he doesn't have the power to take down a guy like Roy Nelson. Nelson has very heavy hands, and is a great striker. Many people forget that Nelson had a decent MMA career before even entering the Ultimate Fighter TV Show, and is a natural born brawler. Struve's ground game is all about using his long limbs against his opponents, and that's not happening against a guy as fat as Roy Nelson, simply put. It's just a bad mismatch for him, and I look for the TKO midway through the fight. This looks impressive to the general TV audience since Struve is 9 feet tall, and Nelson is just a big fat guy.
Value Parlay (-128) for 3 Units
Kenny Florian (-290)
Gomi just doesn't have the experience he needs to excel in this bout. If you look at the list of the fighters he has fought in his days in Pride, no one is truly impressive. Gomi's wrestling is very solid, but not overall impressive for Kenny Florian, whose only loss recently was to BJ Penn. Welcome to UFC Takanori Gomi, sorry you didn't get an easier first fight.
Gleison Tibau (-310)
One of the better values on the board. Overall, it's a very chalky UFC tonight, and I wanted something to parlay with Ken-Flo. Basic analysis...Tibau > Camoes, and Camoes dominated Uno before his low blow disqualified him and ended the fight in Caol Uno’s favor. Uno's best day's in the UFC are behind him. This is just another payday for a fighter at the end of his career, and a hope of getting lucky and getting another check.
