How much do you believe a HALF POINT is worth in these SWEET SIXTEEN games?

Fishhead · 03-25-10, 10:27 AM

jayc88 · 03-25-10, 10:30 AM

maybe around 8-9 cents as it was in the regular season

floridagolfer · 03-25-10, 10:31 AM

Yep . . . probably next to nothing.

Fishhead · 03-25-10, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

Yep . . . probably next to nothing.

You are joking, right?

jayc88 · 03-25-10, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

Yep . . . probably next to nothing.

Fishhead · 03-25-10, 11:40 AM

Longterm, is this profitbable...........you tell me.

CORNELL +8.5 -110 ......110-100
KY -8 +102 ..................100-102

dwaechte · 03-25-10, 11:43 AM

The same as in regular season games with similar spreads/totals for the most part.

Fishhead · 03-25-10, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by dwaechte

The same as in regular season games with similar spreads/totals for the most part.

You don't believe a half point is worth more at this point in the season???

Chi_archie · 03-25-10, 11:48 AM

Long term? same as always.... but

with 15 ncaa tourney games left, that half point is worth a bit less than 1 extra win. if you bet each game

floridagolfer · 03-25-10, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

You are joking, right?

No, not at all.

If you can tell me which of eight pointspreads are going to be affected by half a point, that would be great. But to haphazardly buy the half on every game, that makes no sense to me at all.

Fishhead · 03-25-10, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

No, not at all.

If you can tell me which of eight pointspreads are going to be affected by half a point, that would be great. But to haphazardly buy the half on every game, that makes no sense to me at all.

AND

A half point is worth "something", you understand that right??...............ON EVERYONE OF THESE GAMES..........be it one cent or fifteen cents.

sharpcat · 03-25-10, 12:28 PM

Amazing how few people realize the value of beating the closing line!!!!!!

We are not talking about buying points here!!!!

jjgold · 03-25-10, 01:12 PM

1/2 points in any game eman something whether 1st game of year or championship game. It does not matter what time of the year it is. If you can get a 1/2 better you have a good edge.

blueghost · 03-25-10, 01:21 PM

i think value of .5 point goes up the farther they go into the tourney

Justin7 · 03-25-10, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Longterm, is this profitbable...........you tell me.

CORNELL +8.5 -110 ......110-100
KY -8 +102 ..................100-102

Small +EV.

Fishhead · 03-25-10, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Small +EV.

Thanks Justin........so in theory your saying a half point at this time is worth anywhere from around 7.6-8.9 cents, would that be a correct assumption?

Dunder · 03-25-10, 02:02 PM

Would be -EV if you have to pay commission at Matchy.
If you have an offer accepted then it is marginally positive, but there are SURELY better opportunities available.

At a winning margin of 8-9, half point value is just under 8c

Fishhead · 03-25-10, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by Dunder

Would be -EV if you have to pay commission at Matchy.
If you have an offer accepted then it is marginally positive, but there are SURELY better opportunities available.

At a winning margin of 8-9, half point value is just under 8c

No mention of commissions, don't make things more difficult then they have to be..........thanks.

Just under 8 cents, umm.

Ok, so my last post is probably spot on with the numbers I would think, agree?

floridagolfer · 03-25-10, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

AND

A half point is worth "something", you understand that right??...............ON EVERYONE OF THESE GAMES..........be it one cent or fifteen cents.

No, half a point has value only when it means something. Half a point does no one any good at all when the final margin of victory is 20 points off the posted line.

Dunder · 03-25-10, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

No mention of commissions, don't make things more difficult then they have to be..........thanks.

Just under 8 cents, umm.

Ok, so my last post is probably spot on with the numbers I would think, agree?

In a PK game, half points around 2 would be over 9c in my book but more or less, yes.

Fishhead · 03-25-10, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

No, half a point has value only when it means something. Half a point does no one any good at all when the final margin of victory is 20 points off the posted line.

Thanks for your incredible wisdom.

Doug · 03-25-10, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Small +EV.

Is it +EV because of the time of the year ?

Would it be +EV at the start of the season ?

dwaechte · 03-25-10, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

You don't believe a half point is worth more at this point in the season???

....

Snowball · 03-25-10, 04:09 PM

depends on the line. the lower the line, the more it's worth. Higher, less.

skrtelfan · 03-25-10, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

No, half a point has value only when it means something. Half a point does no one any good at all when the final margin of victory is 20 points off the posted line.

This is what happens when shit gets crossposted from Players Talk into the Tank.

Dark Horse · 03-25-10, 05:15 PM

Stick with the push frequencies. Some questions can open up new possibilities, others are dead end streets.