1. #1
    ManOfValue
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    2nd Opinion NBA

    I have Wizards 1st half -2.5
    Cavs -3
    Lakers +7.5

    How do y'all feel about those? Who do you have? Even if you are not betting, does anything on the board
    stand out?

  2. #2
    jjgold
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    value nobody knows man

    Your guessing like us

  3. #3
    Sam Odom
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    1-2 perhaps

  4. #4
    jjgold
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    Cavs a bunch of hasbin players now

    James worn down

    Irving plays 1 vs 5

  5. #5
    ManOfValue
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    Yea it does seem like Kyrie's team. Amazing how James disappeared in the Celtics game. At least thats what I saw in the highlights. All Irving and Thomas. Lakerboy! what likes you?

  6. #6
    jodiggle
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    lakers tanking now, celts by 10.
    Im on cavs ML.
    raps might come out strong 1st half after last loss

  7. #7
    ManOfValue
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    Yea I don't feel great about the Lakers but I think there is some value there.

  8. #8
    biggie12
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    Raptors ML +190 5k GOGOGO

  9. #9
    ManOfValue
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    Man I wish you well with that play. I am so worried about that team without Lowry.

  10. #10
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by ManOfValue View Post
    Yea I don't feel great about the Lakers but I think there is some value there.
    A lot of times when we talk about value it gets very subjective. But real value can only be determined by creating a line or spread for the game, using relevant information, and then comparing that line to the market.

    Did you do this? I don't ask this with an attitude, or with animosity, but just to stimulate a discussion regarding value.

    Sometimes people feel there's value and can be way off, but other times, even without a number, we can sense value. Sometimes, if you've been looking at a sport long enough, it's obvious when an injury, to public perception, inflates a lone and creates some kind of value.

    But without a quantitative approach for some sort of reference, it's impossible to determine the true value, and whether or not is worth the risk.

    Curiously, why did you see value in the Laker line?

    Of course there a many ways to handicap but here are my conclusions. My non predictive public gauge shows that Boston winning by 6 points. This gauge is designed to indicate a public perception and is not predictive.

    The sharpest forecast I make has Boston winning 112-102. The TOTAL has moved a little toward my line and weíve seen the -7.5 hit -8 at times, but mostly standing at -7.5.

    A lot of tickets on Boston as they just beat the Cavs, Lebronda or not, and the Lakers not expected to finish strong this season.

    Even so, at -7.5, I can assure some groups find value with the Celtics, although not as much as theyíd like. Itís Friday night, in LA and that line opened a tick shy of 8 as there is heavy pressure for LA to cover a spread from less sophisticated bettors, and these guys are due. At the same time, the line originating a tick below 8 gives a little extra action to the Boston side.

    I think this line is well placed and thatís probably why we havenít seen much movement. The books did a good job generating two sided action here without moving the line. Letís see if they add to it by moving the line.

    Situations like these mean this game could be a good pass for some of the long term bettors. Itís the late game so letís see what the market does as game time nears and other money has settled. The information gained could be worth the cost in market movement.


  11. #11
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggie12 View Post
    Raptors ML +190 5k GOGOGO
    My non predictive public gauge has Washington beating Toronto 109-105.

    My sharpest forecast shows an outright tie.

    Speaking of value, my conclusions indicate biggie got some serious value in this play.

    Good work.


  12. #12
    jjgold
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    cleve off to a hot start

    Knicks playing well

    Look for Hornets to give Spurs a game tonight

  13. #13
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...I think this line is well placed and that’s probably why we haven’t seen much movement. The books did a good job generating two sided action here without moving the line. Let’s see if they add to it by moving the line...

  14. #14
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggie12 View Post
    Raptors ML +190 5k GOGOGO



    Way to up your weight Biggie!


  15. #15
    ManOfValue
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    KVB, well said. And yes, I may make a game -5 while you make it -8 and we will have very different opinions on which side has value. I keep power ratings and make my own lines. Unfortunately I don't have a database but I'm learning excel and will be trying to set something up for NBA, NFL ncaa BB and FB. I have a pretty good feel for these games and know just about every starting lineup in most major sports and have an idea of how much each player is worth to the betting line.
    I look at a few things before talking about value, I do not bet "due" teams. In addition to making the line lower, I thought it was a good spot or LA and that the line was inflated. If I remember correctly the majority of wagered money was on Boston and the line still did not close higher. That also told me There was no value on Boston. Looked to me like the sharper money was on LA.
    Seems like you're somebody I can learn something from. Thanks for your contribution to the thread..

  16. #16
    ManOfValue
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    Truth be told this may have been the last time I bet the Lakers this year. I have been burnt by them a few times already. Same happened to me last season with the 76'ers. Always find a good spot and they get crushed. I have an NFL team or two also that has done that to me. ala jaguars.

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