1. #1
    a4u2fear
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    Sunday Sack Props

    Alright, going to bet on some sack props, figured I would share the data. Ran some regressions and came up with some formulas to estimate the number of sacks in a game (88% R^2 for #times sacked, 81% R^2 for #sacks)

    Once the props are listed at my book (usually 10-11am ET Sunday) we will check the odds vs Poisson

    These are my calculated EXPECTED sacks for the game

    Bal 2.4
    Cin 2.2
    (recent matchups for these two were 5,4,2,3,3,2,10 sacks)

    Car 1.9
    TB 3.2

    Buf 3.3
    NYJ 2.4
    Note, EJ Manuels sack rate is around 7.7%, Taylor 9.6%

    Ten 1.8
    Hou 2.0
    Note, Cassell and Mariota have similar sack rates

    Jax 2.0
    Ind 1.8
    Recent games 9,8,6 sacks

    Mia 1.4
    NE 2.9

    Chi 3.0
    Min 2.7

    Dal 3.0
    Phi 1.5

    Cle 0.7
    Pit 6.5
    Need to check backup QB stats

    NO 1.9
    Atl 2.6
    Recent games, 4,1,6,1,5

    NYG 0.9
    Was 1.4

    Arz 4.2
    LA 2.8

    Oak 1.6
    Den 0.8
    Mcgloin in his few throws has a very low sack rate, as does Carr, but who knows

    KC 0.8
    SD 1.9

    Sea 4.2
    SF 2.9
    Recent games 11,4,7,11

    Det 1.3
    GB 2.1
    Recent games 5,6,3,3,4
    I've seen 4.5 listed for this one at -120, we'll see if that posts at my book

    I'll update Sunday, but thought others may find it interesting.

  2. #2
    jjgold
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    That's a lot of action I could never get into props just too much to look at on a regular basis and every sport

  3. #3
    a4u2fear
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    1pm games
    Bal/Cin, pass no edge
    Buf/NYJ, over 4.5 -145
    Ten/Hou, under 4 -120
    Jax/Ind, under 4 -110
    Chi/Min, over 5 +109
    Dal/Phi, over 4 -105
    waiting for Pit/Car/NE game lines

  4. #4
    Goat Milk
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    Don't like the bortles and luck one that much

    Two sloppy qbs
    175 pts

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  5. #5
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    Don't like the bortles and luck one that much

    Two sloppy qbs
    yea recent matchups had quite a few sacks, not my favorite

  6. #6
    a4u2fear
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    Cle/Pit over 5, +115

  7. #7
    a4u2fear
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    Car pass
    NE over 4 -102

  8. #8
    a4u2fear
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    NO over 4 -115
    NYG would be on under, but I don't think Eli plays long, pass

  9. #9
    a4u2fear
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    Arz over 5, -130
    KC under 4.5, -125

  10. #10
    a4u2fear
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    SF over 5 +101
    Oak under 5 -115

  11. #11
    turtlejc
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    2 for 8 on early games?

  12. #12
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtlejc View Post
    2 for 8 on early games?
    Overall, -0.76 units, disappointing.

    What is promising, is games where I had the biggest edge 25% or more, Cle/Arz/KC/Sea/Den (Den wasn't officially a play because I wimped out with McGloin starting) were all winners. The other games, were around 10% edge, were almost all losers.

  13. #13
    CubanLinx
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    I got on Det/GB UNDER 5 @ -160. That felt like free money....lions avg. 1.67 sacks per game, GB giving up 2.27. Rodgers is slippery...gave 'em only 1
    Last edited by CubanLinx; 01-02-17 at 10:21 PM.

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