Betting NFL early season - who's got tips?

[Mudcat]

My problem is that all my proven angles for NFL don't kick in until week 3 - so that's when I start placing wagers - but I'll be in a few different on-line contests and challenges where I'll have to start picking right from week 1.

If I can get through the first 2 weeks at .500, I'll be happy and I'll be in the game all year - but the last couple years I've had disaster starts and spent the first half of the season just clawing back to respectability.

So who's got tips? Any early season angles on spreads/totals to recommend? Any good early-season cappers to coattail?

I am currently leaning towards flipping a coin.

[why]

Good thread, lets hope we get some help! I am looking for some coat tails myself!

[Mudcat]

Someone must have something to say on this.

What do you guys do? Look at what teams were doing at the end of last season and try to factor in personel moves? Look at pre-season? Look for good OVER bets? What?

[jjgold]

Very few people bet pre season other than guys on forums and maybe a few others. It is just too hard with the entire roster playing and guys being tested to see what they got. I would sasy the best strategy is to go against teams that traditionally good every year and take the lousy teams with bad records last year.

[taurus]

I share in your dilemna. I might try a little analysis by 'usual methods' ( however you usually make selections ) and then fade all the selections that I make. Seriously.

[Mudcat]

So for week 1, I was 3-0 in Beat The Prick and 5-2-1 in the cash callenge I'm in.

Somewhat interestingly, the two picks I had wrong in the cash challenge were The Prick's two NFL picks. I figured maybe he knew what he was doing, and since I don't in week 1, I'd coat-tail. Oh well.

Anyway overall, particularly after my disastrous starts of the last couple years, I am very happy with my week 1.

[BuddyBear]

went 2-1 on betjm contest....looks like i won't win that 1,000,000 cash prize but sill some other things i could win.

[why]

Mudcat, I think flipping a coin may be your best bet.

[Senator7]

One huge tip:

Ignore the hype! All of the big teams that got a lot of hype and press this preseason went down yesterday. The Vikings are still coached by Mike Tice and quarterbacked by Dante Culpepper. As soon as those two change, the Vikings may go to a Super Bowl. Mike Martz is still the most overrated coach in the game and no coach in NFL history has done less with so much to work with. New England is still tough as can be and the Randy Moss won't help the Raiders much unless he can turn into an All-Pro Linebacker. New coaches in Miami and San Fran could easily turn those franchises around and the Packers are on the way down while the Lions are on the way up. Washington doesn't have a quarterback and the Bears can't score. Very few things change from year to year in the NFL because there's just too much parity across the league. You have to ignore the hype and predictions if you want to succeed betting early in the NFL.

Senator 7

[jjgold]

Its all about QB's

Do not bet bad QB"s period and you will always be in the game